Good Morning,

After a weekend of storms and cooler temperatures setting in, the grain markets open up weaker to begin this new week of trade. Corn is currently down 4 and soybeans are down 6. This week looks pretty dry for our area, but chances of rains are expected to ramp up in the 6-10 day time frame. The cooler temperatures come at a welcoming time as we are seeing much of the corn crop begin to tassel and start pollination. The cooler temperatures are expected to stay for a while. Extended forecasts are showing the warmer temperatures will return in the 11-15 day time frame.

U.S. – China trade talks are another highlight of today’s news in agriculture. The trade talks are beginning to show more signs of progress. China’s official Xinhua news agency said that numerous Chinese companies are seeking purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The news agency reported that Chinese businesses have recently made inquiries with U.S. exporters to buy crops/agricultural products and applied for lifting of tariffs. Moving forward, the markets will certainly keep an eye on the trade negotiations and will be hoping for more progress to be made.

The weekly crop progress report will be released at 3 p.m. this afternoon. Analysts are estimating a corn condition rating of 59% GTE (58% GTE last week, 71.4% 5-year average) and analysts are estimating a soybean condition rating at 54% GTE (54% GTE last week, 67.2% 5-year average). Moving forward, I don’t think trade dynamics will change much until we see the USDA’s yield and acreage confirmation data on August 12th. I expect markets to remain volatile and trade within the established range that we have seen so far this month. I expect the majority of price movement will be based on changes in weather forecasts and any technical indicators. I would advise producers to keep a close eye on the markets in the days to come and consider their options on marketing their crops, especially as the time gets closer for the release of August’s report!

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Grain markets are a bit higher this morning as trade continues to weigh the impact of this weekend’s hot weather that will be seen across much of the Corn Belt. However, the more than expected rainfall that we have seen fall on much of our growing region has definitely dampened the fear of this weekend’s heat wave. Currently, corn is up 3, soybeans are up 10, and wheat is up 4. Weekly export sales show corn was the only commodity that exported less than expected. The U.S. exported 333,000 tonnes of corn (estimated 350,000 to 800,000 tonnes). The weekly exports for soybeans come in at 326,300 tonnes (estimated 100,000 to 700,000 tonnes) and the weekly exports for wheat come in at 347,300 tonnes (estimated at 200,000 to 400,000). The drop in corn exports still come in at no surprise as our corn prices remain higher than other countries. We are still hearing that end users in the southern states are importing corn from South America at cheaper rates than they can buy U.S. corn. Moving forward, the next 15-30 days of weather still comes at a critical time as the bulk of pollination will be taking place. Until we get through pollination and see the USDA’s re-survey report that will be released on August 12th, I think the markets will hold on to some risk premium. I think we can expect prices to remain volatile and trade within the range that has already been established so far this month. The weather and some technical indicators will continue to drive prices in the next few weeks to come.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets have made a bit of a rebound during the overnight trading session. Corn and soybeans both closed at 5 cents higher. Currently, corn is trading 3 cents higher and soybeans are trading unchanged. Weather maps continue to be watched very closely to help determine the fate of this year’s crop. The Midwest is set to have a substantial heat wave that will remain until Sunday of this weekend. There are some areas of concern especially on the Iowa, Missouri border. The markets will definitely try and gauge the damage that will be done to those areas in the next couple of days. However, with the shift in weather and more rain expected across much of the Corn Belt, the hot weather has become less dire and we have seen the markets take out some risk premium that we saw last week. Anticipation is beginning to build around the release of the re-survey data that will be available in August. With anxiety still high over this year’s supply potential, I expect that we will continue to see volatile markets, but I expect the markets to trade within a range, not moving too far one way or the other. Until traders have a better handle on where supply will be with August’s USDA report, I believe the weather will continue to drive the markets here in the short-run. I would advise producers to continue to take advantage of the great markets we have seen and consider contracting any old or new crop in the next weeks to come. With the way this year has gone, it isn’t safe to say how the August report will go. I wouldn’t want any producers to miss locking in their crops at good levels if the report comes out estimating ample supply.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

A change in weather forecasts mixed with some unanticipated precipitation has drove the markets lower here in the last 24 hours. This morning corn is currently trading 7 cents lower and soybeans are trading 9 cents lower. The extended forecasts now show a quicker return to cooler temperatures across much of the U.S. growing region. The warmer temperatures are now expected to break by early next week as the ridge of high pressure that brings the hotter weather will move back over the Rockies by this weekend. Also, Hurricane Barry’s remnants moved farther west than originally anticipated. The whole southern half of IL sat in the path of the tropical storm’s remnants and collected some much needed precipitation. There is currently a system that started in eastern NE this morning and is making its way across western IA bringing some much needed rain to that region as well. In our area, we are still seeing chances of rain mid-week and there are now chances of showers showing for this weekend.

Another driving force for the market action was yesterday’s weekly crop ratings report. To some surprise the good to excellent ratings did improve a bit with yesterday’s report. Granted, the jump in improvements only increased by 1% for both corn and soybeans on a national level with 58% of corn rated as good to excellent and 54% of beans rated as good to excellent. Here in Wisconsin, corn ratings increased 1% from the week before rounding off at 60% good to excellent and soybeans didn’t change remaining at 64% good to excellent. Ultimately, the currents crop ratings and weather are definitely not ideal but both are moving the right way here in this crucial mid-July time frame. With a greater ease in the weather forecasts we could definitely see further decreases in prices. I would advise producers to call in and discuss the best opportunities to lock in any of their crop at the best levels.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans opened very strong last night, but despite its initial nickel plus gain prices have since filled those gaps. Corn and beans are currently trading lower this morning. Corn is down 8 cents and soybeans are down 10 cents. The hot and dry outlook for the next 10 days still remains in the forecast. There are some chances for rain in MN and here in WI mid-week, but the majority of the Corn Belt is expected to remain dry. Temperatures are expected to push 100 degrees across much of the U.S. growing region. The hot weather lingers at a time that isn’t so welcome for our crops and certainly adds some risk premium to the markets. The weekly crop progress report will be released after the close today and it is expected that there will be a decline in good to excellent ratings for corn and soybeans. This week, markets will be focusing on a break in the weather and looking for more precipitation along with keeping an eye on the exact path of Tropical Storm Barry’s remnants. I think if we don’t see more normal temperatures and added moisture more risk premium will be added to the markets here in the short-run.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com