Good Morning,

Markets are lower again this morning with favorable planting and growing weather in the forecast. The U.S. Midwest weather forecast changed to significantly less rains over the next 5 days and the 6 to 10 day period is also a bit drier. The U.S. Delta and the Southeast has a period of wet weather through early next week.
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that progress was being made in talks with Mexico to stem the flow of migrants to the United States and would continue on Thursday, but unless an agreement can be reached a 5% tariff on Mexican goods would begin on Monday.
With the anticipation of lower production, Smithfield foods purchase of 500,000 to 1 MMT of South American corn for 19/20 makes sense. There is no way the ECB is going to produce enough corn to match 18/19 domestic consumption for ethanol, feeding, and exports. Other animal feeders on the East Coast and in the SE may looking at doing the same thing, which will continue to reduce the demand for US corn!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weekly crop progress reports were unsurprisingly friendly as only two-thirds of the corn crop and less than 40% of the bean have been able to be seeded this spring. While the corn is obviously record slow, the beans aren’t far behind with their second slowest rate ever. If we use the March planting intentions data, Monday’s report means that farmers still have over 30M acres of corn and over 50M acres of beans that still haven’t been planted.
Major weather models are in good agreement in calling for a tropical system to move in over the Southeast that will shift the wet weather south and out of the Northern-half of the Corn Belt. This will allow farmers from Nebraska in the west clear across the I-80 corridor all the way to Ohio and points north to make an 11th hour push to get as many acres seeded before the next round of showers and storms move through.

It’s being reported (unconfirmed) that USDA Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue changed his statement today regarding Prevent Plant acres counting toward Market Facilitation Payments. Initially he said that they would not when the program was announced. Last week he said that they may, but that farmers would not be told probably until July. Today he reportedly stated that he hopes to have “a definitive answer” by the end of this week. That could dramatically impact decisions on Prevent Plant.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 2, beans up 7 and wheat up 16. Wheat is providing the boost this am as dry weather in Russia and additional rainfall in the plains provide support following Friday’s selloff.
Traders continue to focus on Chinese trade talks and Mexican tariffs. The recent escalation of rhetoric between Beijing and Washington following the Trump administration’s new tariffs on $300B of Chinese goods has made the meeting between the President’s of the world’s two biggest economies at the upcoming G20 meeting in Japan critical to finding a solution. If not I fear that this will continue to drag out long enough to become an issue in the 2020 elections.
Look for planting progress on corn to be 70-75% complete this afternoon with soybeans coming in around 40-50% complete. Temperatures look more seasonal and that will help going forward.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

News from the White House that it would place a 5% tariff on all imported products from Mexico beginning June 10th in attempt to stem the flow of illegal immigration has the CBOT Ag complex under pressure. Corn is down 6, beans down 3 and wheat down 12 cents.

While the weather has been a driver of the markets over the last couple weeks, fund managers are concerned about Trumps plan to close the boarder. The announcement on the tariff included the threat to increase the duty 5% every month until it reached 25% unless the Mexican government makes significant progress in solving the problem.

Given that Mexico imports more than 600M bu. of corn and 140M of soybeans the impact could be another significant hurdle for the US Ag markets. South American crops are huge and these new tariffs could easily have the Mexicans turning there for cheap imports.

Weather models are in good agreement that Mother Nature is finally going to cooperate a little over the next week. Forecasts show a warmer and drier outlook that should allow a significant amount progress be made in getting crops in the ground. Those in the eastern Corn Belt can expect a dry window that should last until the middle of next week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this am with corn up 8 and soybeans are up 7 to start the day. Additional rains fell across the US again overnight. Major weather models continue to show a moderation in this springs weather pattern over the next week to ten days. While rains won’t completely shut off, the drier weather will be welcome as it should be enough for more crops to get planted.
With this morning’s rally it looks as though the funds have exited their record short position in corn and should now be long. How long are the traders willing to be in this market is unknown. I believe with the exit of their short position we will see the daily volatility decrease and not have as many big daily rallies.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com