December 18, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 3, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is down 6 to start the week.
AgRural reported Brazilian soybean planting at 94% complete as of Thursday, up three points on the week, but down from previous seasons where the planting campaign was already complete at this point.
Brazil was mostly dry over the weekend while Argentina saw beneficial rains.
Limited rain for Northern Brazil are forecasted to begin mid-week and bring some degree of relief. One to two inches of rain are forecast to move into the driest areas.
Price movement this week will depend on the rain amounts into Northern Brazil. It was hot over the weekend with temps hitting as high as 108 degrees. This rain needs to fall, or the crop will take turn for the worse after all of this heat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 15, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 1, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is up 5 to start the day.
Argentine farm associations yesterday came out in opposition of a planned government export tax hike, which would move corn and wheat export taxes from 12% to 15%. The government also reopened their grain export registry yesterday after it had closed on Monday; the Argentine peso was sharply devalued in between, to curb inflation and cut down their deficit.
Crop progress in Argentina is 49% planted in corn at rated at 40% good to excellent vs 18% g/ex last year. Soybeans are 60% planted at rated at 30% good/excellent vs 19% last year.
Hot weather has set in Brazil where temperatures were in the 90’s to 100’s and look to stay there until about next Thursday. Rain is forecast after the breakdown of the ridge that is supposed to drop .25-1.75 inches in some of the drier areas of Brazil.
Look for a quiet trade today in corn with some pressure in soybeans as traders take positions and monitor Brazil and Argeninta weather forecasts.
Producers should be making January and February sales to core bins and keep grain fresh. Targets of $4.65-$4.80 should be the goal with very little market news expected in the next two weeks.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 14, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 1, soybeans and wheat are bot up 5 to start the day.
Markets were lower yesterday as the market adjusted to various changing conditions in Argentina. The devaluation of the peso from the 365 level to the 800 mark was an aggressive move. Originally it was reported that export taxes could be removed but taxes went higher in the near term to help the government raise funds with the promise to back off down the line. This means that going forward the Argentinian crop is more likely available to world buyers without special conditions like the ‘soydollar’ program to move product. If this continues, it will keep a bearish vibe in the markets especially with the potential size of this years Argentina crop.
Brazilian weather will see a heat wave over the next 5 days. Temps will be in the 90’s to 100’s. Rain will be limited in 2/3rds of Brazil. The heavy rains are in the South down in Argentina. The forecast for central and northern Brazil still advertises rain across the northern areas late next week. The hot temperatures are also expected to break by around Tuesday.
Weekly exports released this morning showed corn at 55.8 million bushels, which is slightly above the 10-week average of 51.9 million. The negative news in corn exports is the actual shipments. Today’s report showed that only 35% of corn sales have shipped. This is concerning to me because I believe most of the sales that we have on could be cancelled in the coming months. These recent flash sales are only an insurance policy for the foreign buyers if the South American crop is smaller than projected. If South America has a decent crop, these current sales will be cancelled or bought back and replaced with cheaper Brazilian or Argentina corn.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 13, 2023
Good morning,
All markets are lower this morning with corn down 6, soybeans down 15 and wheat down 14.
Economic changes developing in Argentina have brought the market lower overnight. A devaluation of currency and a cut in government spending are making the headlines this morning. Argentina wants to take the taxes off of Agricultural goods, their number one supply of government income. Argentina is currently in bankruptcy with the IMF and owes 44 billion dollars regardless of what they want to do policy wise. They’ll have to come up with the money or default on the default!
The grain industry in Argentina was expected to meet with Argentina’s new administration late Tuesday after the new fiscal measures are announced. Announcements were expected around 2 pm Central on Tuesday but came out later in the day. Argentina is battling triple digit inflation as well as foreign currency reserves estimated at a negative $10 billion. Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced the Argentine Peso would be weakened to 800 per dollar from 365 now. He also said the government would reduce energy and transport subsidies but double the social spending on the poorest people. The poverty rate in Argentina is currently above 40%.
The weather in Brazil is currently hot and dry. The short-term forecast has the hot air mass extending out into the 11–15-day period. The 10-day forecast has plenty of rain for Southern Brazil and Argentina, where temps are normal. Northern Brazil is hot with temps in the 90’s to 100’s and rains have been hard to come by. The 11-15 day forecast still shows a return to rain.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 11, 2023
Good morning,
This mornings the markets all have their own agenda. Corn is down 4, soybeans are up 18 and wheat is down 17.
The weather in Brazil has soybeans higher overnight. Some hot temperatures are moving in again this week, knocking some of the rain out that was forecast early this week. The long range forecast still calls for rain and shows a significant change in Southern Brazil. The heavy rains are supposed to let up. Weekend totals were light with trace to an inch in only about 15% of Central and Northern Brazil.
As expected, Friday’s report was a quiet monthly report from USDA. They did make minor upward adjustments to U.S. corn and wheat exports, they were largely immaterial in the big picture view of their respective balance sheets while USDA completely left the U.S. soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil balance sheets unchanged from last month. World revisions were also limited with only a minor downward revision to the Brazilian soybean crop, as expected, for South American estimates.
The USDA’s 2.131 billion bushel ending stocks estimate still reflects a massive 57% increase from last year’s 1.361 billion bushels, with their 14.7% stocks/usage ratio estimate easily still the highest in five years. With the expected notable rise in U.S. corn stocks this year, combined with sharply higher Ukraine stocks ideas on their reduced ability to export, USDA sees world corn ending stocks excluding China this year rising to 113.2 MMT from 94.1 MMT in 22/23 and would be a six-year high – another negative fundamental influence for the corn market.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
