January 2, 2024
Good morning,
The markets opened lower this morning to start the new year with corn down 4, soybeans down 20 and wheat down 5.
The market has been waiting on rains for Brazil and they are almost certainly coming! All models are aligned with the driest areas of central Brazil looking to receive blanket rains of over 3 inches across the next week with some areas in store for more. This may be coming too late for some of the earlier planted soybeans but overall this rain is very timely. As we have seen many a time the crops can recover surprisingly well, and we would expect no different this time.
The markets ended 2023 with very little to be excited about and it appears that 2024 is at least going to start that way. The commodity markets have a lot of bearish news feeding them right now and it may be a while before we find something to change that. Producers should be talking with their buyers and looking for opportunities to add small premiums to sales with option strategies. The CBOT doesn’t appear that it is going to get exciting and with large US and world stocks, basis levels aren’t going to do much work either.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 28, 2023
Good morning,
Grain markets remained quiet this morning with corn unchanged, soybeans up 2 and wheat up 7.
To say the corn market has been struggling to find some bullish news is an understatement. The March futures have traded in a 30-cent window and all sub $5 for the last two months. Finding anything that is going to move it higher, let alone north of $5 in the next couple months is going to be a struggle. With higher US and world stocks compounded with a lack of significant demand and a south American crop that is looking like a record, it could be a tough first quarter for grain.
South American weather, the January 12th USDA Crop Production report and global political wars are the hope to move things higher in the coming months, but they are a long shot.
Producers are advised to take this time to meet with your buyers to discuss what levels are attainable and put firm offers in place. Little moves in the market should be sold as the likelihood of big moves is not realistic in a surplus year. With higher interest rates, carrying costs are much higher than last year and need to be accounted for.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
December 26, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are mixed following the holiday break with corn up 2, wheat up 11 and soybeans down 2.
Weekend rain totals in Brazil were on the light side with most of the coverage either up North or West. The 1–5-day forecast does not have much rain in it, but 10-day period does. This is the same forecast we’ve been seeing for weeks.
Both corn and soybean planting in Argentina saw progress over the last week with soybean planting at 69% complete which is 11% behind the 10-year average but 8% ahead of last year. Corn planting was 59% complete, which is 12% behind the 10-year average but 7% ahead of last year.
Look for trade volume to be light this week with fewer traders during the holiday season. This could lead to more volatility if there is any bullish or bearish news.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
608-217-6592
December 18, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 3, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is down 6 to start the week.
AgRural reported Brazilian soybean planting at 94% complete as of Thursday, up three points on the week, but down from previous seasons where the planting campaign was already complete at this point.
Brazil was mostly dry over the weekend while Argentina saw beneficial rains.
Limited rain for Northern Brazil are forecasted to begin mid-week and bring some degree of relief. One to two inches of rain are forecast to move into the driest areas.
Price movement this week will depend on the rain amounts into Northern Brazil. It was hot over the weekend with temps hitting as high as 108 degrees. This rain needs to fall, or the crop will take turn for the worse after all of this heat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 15, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 1, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is up 5 to start the day.
Argentine farm associations yesterday came out in opposition of a planned government export tax hike, which would move corn and wheat export taxes from 12% to 15%. The government also reopened their grain export registry yesterday after it had closed on Monday; the Argentine peso was sharply devalued in between, to curb inflation and cut down their deficit.
Crop progress in Argentina is 49% planted in corn at rated at 40% good to excellent vs 18% g/ex last year. Soybeans are 60% planted at rated at 30% good/excellent vs 19% last year.
Hot weather has set in Brazil where temperatures were in the 90’s to 100’s and look to stay there until about next Thursday. Rain is forecast after the breakdown of the ridge that is supposed to drop .25-1.75 inches in some of the drier areas of Brazil.
Look for a quiet trade today in corn with some pressure in soybeans as traders take positions and monitor Brazil and Argeninta weather forecasts.
Producers should be making January and February sales to core bins and keep grain fresh. Targets of $4.65-$4.80 should be the goal with very little market news expected in the next two weeks.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
