April 12, 2019
Good Morning,
Corn is currently trading even, and Soybeans up two. The second bomb cyclone has delayed spring fieldwork across much of the Midwest by bringing ice, snow, and even blizzard like conditions to most areas. Trade is watching as the full affects are yet to be seen. China and US trade talks continue, with China making a huge pork purchase recently.
Secretary of Ag Sonny Perdue announced there is no program to aid the farmers affected with grain and storage loss in Nebraska, flooding damage resulted from the Mid-March winter storm. However, Iowa and Nebraska lawmakers announced measures to aid those affected with tax and retirement withdrawals.
Please update offers on old crop and new crop, even with a flat market we need to be prepared if there is a small rally that could meet some price targets. Consider some new crop bids sitting $3.80 to close to $4.00 for Spring and Summer of 2020.
Have a Great Weekend!
Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com
April 9, 2019
Good Morning,
Markets are starting the day lower with corn down 2 and soybeans down 1. USDA S&D numbers will be released at 11am this morning and estimates are for higher stocks in all three major commodities. (see estimates below) To see what the uphill climb prices face, we not only have to look at US stocks, but world stocks.
USDA 2018-19 ending stocks(billion bushels)
USDA April Average Est. USDA March
Corn 2.035 1.991 1.835
Soybeans .895 .898 .900
Wheat 1.087 1.072 1.055
USDA World ending stocks (Million Metric Ton)
USDA April Average Est. USDA March
Corn 314.01 311.16 308.53
Soybeans 107.36 108.04 107.17
Wheat 275.61 271.00 270.53
Last night’s Crop Progress report showed the US at 2% planted for corn. Leading the way was Texas with 53%, Tennessee with 8% and Missouri, Nebraska and Kentucky all at 2%.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
April 8, 2019
Good Morning,
Markets are up two in beans, 1 in corn. News is pretty limited on trade talks this morning. Meetings wrapped up, and at this point further talks will be via video conference for the remainder of the week. No date is set for a signing of a new agreement. Chief economist Kudlow stated that there are still issues to be worked out, but progress was made. More of the same, as this looks to drag out for eternity. “If we have a deal, then we’ll have a summit,” President Trump said.
Historic March floods are having impact on the ethanol industry. Ethanol shortages are pushing gas prices above 4 dollars in California, the highest price since 2014. Supply disruptions from rail, and currently close to 13 percent of plants are offline.
Tuesday the USDA will release updated supply and demand reports. The USDA will factor in the stocks report for March, but will not work in acres for 2019 production yet. There were 300 million bushels of corn that will need to be adjusted down in feed, exports and ethanol. Carryout is expected to be close to 2 billion bushels for corn. Changes of less the 50 million bushels are expected in soybeans. Chinese bean purchases will keep bean stocks from growing. Overall the S&D report will have a bearish tone, but it is also mostly priced into the market.
Have a Great Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
April 3, 2019
Good Morning,
Quiet markets again this morning with corn and soybeans both hovering around unchanged to up 1.
The Chinese delegation will be in the US tomorrow and President Trump says talks are going very well. Funds are estimated to be short over 250,000 contracts as of today; the question is what it is going to take for them to cover their short.
Texas was at 51% planted on yesterday’s state progress report, and we will get the US progress report next Monday. If the weather holds there will be some planters to start rolling in Central Illinois next week.
Large inventories of corn and soybeans remain a significant problem and will continue to weigh on the markets. The trade deal would provide a lift as an additional $50 billion of Chinese spending will create new demand that should help.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
April 2, 2019
Good Morning,
Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 2 after Monday’s slight rebound from last week’s selloff. This was expected and is a good sign that hopefully we have put in a short term floor and can grind higher as we head into spring. While I do not anticipate a significant move higher, I could see 10-15 cents as realistic.
The US Dollar is stronger as drama in the UK over Brexit has investors continuing to use the currency as a safe haven. Stronger global demand and the idea that OPEC will reduce production have crude oil pushing $62/barrel.
One situation that bears watching is the Presidents threat to close our southern border with Mexico in an effort to slow the flow of asylum seeking immigrants. Should the border be shutdown it would put nearly $3 Billion in Ag products sold to Mexico in jeopardy as bottlenecks develop.
Producers looking to move old crop prior to or during planting season should target $3.35-3.45 in the next couple months unless we see some major weather issues across the Midwest. New crop sales of $3.65-3.75 should be targeted for fall delivery corn.
Have a Safe Day!!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
