Daily Insights

March 21, 2019

Good Morning,

Quiet markets to open the day with corn up 1 and soybeans down 2. Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report had production down 1000 bpd to 1.0 million as stocks jumped 681,000 barrels to 24.41 million barrels. Tjhis morning export sales for the week ending 3/14 came in at 33.7 million bushel for corn and 14.7 million bushel for soybeans. Corn is slightly below the ten week average of 37.4 while soybeans are significantly below the ten week average of 41.7.
President Trump said on Wednesday afternoon that tariffs on Chinese goods may be kept in place even if a trade deal is consummated to make sure China is living up to the deal. (looks like things are really going well)
The funds remain significantly short corn beans and wheat with nothing fundamental to move them out of these positions. We have been hearing for months that there “has to be a rally”, but it is becoming more and more obvious that this may not happen.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 19, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn and soybean markets are steady this morning after the funds added to their short position yesterday. The funds currently sit short 259,000 contracts of corn, 85,000 contracts of soybeans and 75,000 contracts in the wheat market.
Flooding in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri continue and look to continue in the near future with warmers temperatures adding additional snow melt to the already overwhelming water levels in these areas. This flooding will definitely have an impact on the planted acres this spring, but the extent of acres would only be a guess at this point.
Sonny Perdue said that trade talks with China are “dynamic” and that China could triple its 2017 purchases of US farm goods in the next five years. These comments are getting old and until we see the sales and actual shipments I am not going to get too excited.
Next Thursday the USDA will release its quarterly stocks and planting intentions report. This will be the last market mover report until the June stocks and planted acres report.

With spring field work and planting right around the corner, make sure you take time to get firm offers in with your buyers, update the firm offers you have in.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 13, 2019

Good Morning,

Futures are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s Turnaround Tuesday that saw wheat post its biggest 1 day gain in 7 months. Part of the rally was sparked by the strength in the cash basis for hi-pro wheat from mills. The turnaround helped futures hold support after the markets had become oversold. In the outside markets, the US Dollar is steady, crude oil is back above $57/ barrel and gold is trading higher as investor utilize it as a safe haven.
US Trade Ambassador Lighthizer will be speaking to Members of the House Ways and Means Committee. When he met with Senators yesterday he spoke positively on the progress being made between the US and China. We anticipate that we will hear more of the same from him today. Chinese media continue to report progress, but are not receiving the assurances they are seeking about the tariffs being lifted. With positive rhetoric coming out of Washington, the prospect of a trade deal between the World’s two largest economies coming in just weeks should be enough to keep the heavy sellers on the sidelines. Argentine corn is running about 25 cents cheaper than shipments originating out of the Gulf at this time which will keep pressure on exports.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 12, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn continued its slide yesterday with wheat pulling it lower and no trade news and export inspections lighter than expected. Weekly corn inspections came in at 765,618 MT for the week versus expectations of 900,000 MT. Reports out yesterday afternoon showed China corn for swine feed use dropping 30% this year as African swine fever outbreak continues to decimate their stock.
The Buenos Aires Grain exchange reported Argentina corn harvest is 4% complete and left their crop estimate at 45MMT. Brazil’s first corn crop is 85% harvested and the second crop is 75% planted.
Its difficult to predict what will move this market higher in the coming months, but most are relying/hoping that spring planting weather to be the catalyst. Temperatures for the next 10 days look cool/wet while the 10 day extended forecast looks to warm up and dry out. Locally we should see significant snow melt the remainder of this week with temperatures in the upper 40’s to mid-50’s.

Producers looking to make cash sales before heading to the fields this spring should give us a call to see how you can get $3.50 for corn delivered in the last half of March – First half of April with a potential sale for December 2019 at $4.00.

Now is the time to start thinking about firm offers for this summer and next fall. Spring planting is not that far away and you don’t want to miss a marketing opportunity because you are too busy in the fields. Give us a call today to get your offers in.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

March 8, 2019

Good Morning,

Quiet markets this morning as we end the week. On the week we are down 7 cents in corn and 7 cents in soybeans. Wheat has been the big loser this week down 16 after yesterdays close. Funds have added a massive 35,000 contracts to their short corn position in the past two days.
The average trade estimate for US corn ending stocks n today/s WASDE report is 1.736 billion bushels and world corn ending stocks at 309.06 MMT. The average trade estimate for US soybean ending stocks is 902 million bushels and world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 106.33 MMT. Today’s report is expected to be a quiet report with few notable surprises.
Stagnant markets like we have seen the last few months are a good time to look at different marketing alternatives to add cash to your bottom line. Producers looking to make cash sales before heading to the fields this spring should give us a call to see how you can get $3.50 for corn delivered in the Last half of March-First half of April with a potential sale for December 2019 at $4.00.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com