Good Morning,

As the Midwest rises out of the deep freeze we have been in the last few days the markets are also trying to rise up. Corn is up 2 and soybeans up 12 this morning. The corn market is trading higher while being pulled along with the bean market as trade talks with China progress.
This week’s trade talks were thought to be positive with comment that there has been much progress made toward resolving structural issues. Comments were that there is a lot of work left to do to totally resolve trade differences and discussions are expected to continue over the next thirty days. The March 1 deadline is still in place.
Next Fridays USDA S&D report will be the next day of data that traders have been anxiously awaiting.

I would advise producers to make sales and get firm offers in before this report as we could see volatile trade in both directions.

Have a Safe day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Slightly stronger markets expected this morning with corn and beans both up 2. Traders are hopeful that some news will leak out of Washington in regards to the Chinese/US trade talks.

It seems rather unlikely that with this one meeting the trade war will be over, but rather the most probable outcome for these talks is that nothing absolute actually comes out of them other than an extension of the current truce into spring. As far as Chinese purchases of US Ag products, it is wait and see at this point and leaves the commercials at a distinct advantage in the markets.

Hopefully the return of the export sales can help level the playing field. The USDA announced on Tuesday that export sales since mid-December will be released in parts over the next several weeks instead of all at one time. This is a different policy than what was done following 2013’s shut down. This Thursday’s report will include export demand through the week ending December 20th. Next Thursday’s will include sales through the week ending Dec 27th.

The market won’t be fully caught up on sales until Feb 20th, assuming the US government can strike a funding agreement. Remember that right when the government reports stopped that US corn and wheat were becoming the world’s cheapest feed.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Trade talks are expected to begin this morning in Washington as the traders remain hesitant to get too short or long until we know more about the outcome of the negotiations. With 4 weeks of trade data looming on the horizon we could see a lot of volatility in the coming week as reports start getting released by the USDA. Next Friday’s Crop Production report is the most anticipated by traders.
Producers are advised to lock in basis on any old crop sales you have left to make. With a large surplus of grain there is very little chance for basis to improve. Any move higher in the CBOT due to reports is only going to widen basis levels across the country as more grain moves.
Corn is currently down 2 and soybeans are down 5.

Reminder that Didion Grain receiving will be closed on Wednesday 1/30/19.

Get out of the cold on Thursday and Friday this week and come visit us at the Corn Soy Expo in Wisconsin Dells. https://cornsoyexpo.org/

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Commodities are taking back Friday’s gains this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans down 9. Improving forecast for South America has soybeans trading lower. The mid-range models have the high pressure ridge that has dominated weather pattern for weeks looking to shift to the east allowing for seasonal rains to move back into Brazil and away from Argentina.
The government is open from the partial shutdown, but President Trump says he would be willing to do it again if demands aren’t met by February 15th. USDA Chief Economist says the February report scheduled for the 8th will be on time. The delayed data from the missed January report will be included. The annual Ag outlook forum will also remain as planned for February 21 and 22 if the government remains open thru then.
Trade talks with China appear to be back on track but concerns over a lack of progress have traders unwilling to take positions.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Unchanged markets on the open this morning as we continue our winter doldrums. The fact that we have the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all within 10 cents of each of other in the CH19 is another reminder of how uneventful this market has been.

Ethanol production for the week averaged 1.031 million barrels which is down 1.9% from last week and down 2.92% from a year ago.

Private analysts Informa released their estimates for the 2019 growing season yesterday and numbers were in line with what most were expecting. They project 91.5 million acres of corn which is 2.4 million above last year. They projected soybean acres at 86.2 million acres which is 2.9 million below last year.
I would not be surprised to see this acreage shift in 2019, and if we do it could make the current prices we are paying for fall and next summer look very good. At 91.5 million acres and a national yield of 178(2018 average) we could end up with a carryout of 2.8 billion bushel! If we dropped yield to 175 we would still have a carryout of 2.5 billion bu. In my opinion we would need to drop yield to 160 (a number we haven’t seen since 2013) which would result in a carryout of 1.3 billion to get the markets excited.
This is the time of year when many producers get caught focusing on the marketing of their old crop and don’t give enough attention to new crop prices. Don’t miss these new crop opportunities!
October and November cash prices are in the $3.60-$3.70 range while spring and summer of 2020 prices are in the $3.85-$3.95 range.

Have a Safe Day and Stay warm!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com