Good Morning,

Markets are steady this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans up 5. Lack of any news and holiday season have the markets stagnant for the time being.
President Trump announced that a second round of payments would be coming for US farmers for soybeans. The President also told the Fed not to make another mistake and raise interest rates too much.
President Xi Jinping told an audience of party officials, military leaders that “no one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what should and should not be done” in a speech. “There is no textbook of golden rules to follow for reform and development in China, a country with over 5000 years of civilization and more than 1.3 billion people”. Who these comments were exactly referencing was not stated, but most believe it was the US.
I would advise producers to start looking to make sales for October/November of 2019 at the current levels. We are currently in the 70th percentile for the last five years with current prices in the $3.70-3.75 range. Any sale that can be made at or above this percentile is strongly recommended. If we increase corn acreage in 2019 by 4-5 million acres next year and drop yield back to 175 bpa we could very easily push next year’s carryout over 2.0 billion bushels.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Grain markets have opened steady this morning with corn down 1 and soybeans up 3. The watch continues for any additional reports of Chinese business. Most traders appeared to be disappointed with last week’s totals but remain optimistic about future sales. The chance of any big export numbers in the coming months is limited as the deals are still not worked out and South American bean harvest is only a couple months away from hitting the ports. The Trump administration has set March 2nd as the firm deadline for arriving at a deal with China. If nothing is completed by that date additional tariffs of $200 billion will be imposed on Chinese goods.
There are still no firm details on the 2nd part of the MFP payment to farmers to help offset the trade war with China. Some traders are speculating that an announcement will come in conjunction with the signing of the new farm bill as early as next week.
We continue to be stuck in a sideways trading range between $3.80 – 3.88 for March futures. Barring any news on trade talks this range should hold thru the end of the year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction in the markets yesterday resulted in the soybeans selling off which pulled corn lower. Chinese soybean sales numbers that were not even close to the 5 to 8 MMT rumors that came from last week’s meeting had traders in a sell mode. In positive news the Chinese did announce that beginning January 1, they would suspend their tariffs on $126 billion of US automobiles and products. This is another confirmation of the Presidents promise that tariffs on US autos would revert back to the 15% level before the trade war began.
I would advise producers to start looking at making sales for October/November of 2019 at the current levels. We are currently in the 70th percentile for the last five years with current prices in the $3.70-3.75 range. Any sale that can be made at or above this percentile is strongly recommended. If we increase corn acreage in 2019 by 4-5 million acres next year and drop yield back to 175 bpa we could very easily push next year’s carryout over 2.0 billion bushels. This is why I would advise producers to have a minimum of 20% of your fall corn sold at this level.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is currently even, and soybeans down eleven. Trade saw China purchase 500,000 tonnes of soybeans, the first since the G20 Summit. This is encouraging progress, though many traders were expecting a number ten times higher. US House and Senate passed the farm bill, with Trump the final stop for signature. House vote was 369-47, the bill that 40 million Americans depend on for SNAP.

In my opinion, these headlines are proving that corn has a stable/positive outlook at this time. With that being said, make sure to have firm offers in place and make your targets known. Keep in mind some bids that have been stable over the past week: January $3.60, June $3.75, October $3.73.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Overnight China and the US discussed the road map for the next stage of their trade talks. Both sides exchanged views and worked out details for continued meetings when the Chinese delegation comes to the US.(A meeting in DC is expected soon). There are rumors of a purchase of 5-8 mmt of beans getting bought this week from China. China imports close to 7 mmt/month, so this number seems about right.
USDA crop report out at 11am today with little surprises expected. Corn carryout is expected to increase slightly from the November report. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

2018-19 Ending Stocks (million bu)
December 11 Average Est. USDA November
Corn 1.781 1.744 1.736
Soybeans 955 938 955
Wheat 974 969 949

2018-19 World Stocks (million metric ton)
December 11 Average Est. USDA November
Corn 308.8 308.4 307.5
Soybeans 115.3 113.2 112.1
Wheat 268.1 267.3 266.7

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com