Daily Insights

October 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Last night’s crop progress for corn was 49% complete which is up from 39% last week. Soybeans reached 53% complete which is up from 38% last week. The five year average for corn is 47% and 69% for soybeans. Both of these should climb substantially with this last weekend’s weather and forecasts for the coming week. Yield reports continue to come in very strong across the Midwest which means the crop appears to have survived the adverse weather better than feared leaving LARGE supplies.
It’s difficult to justify a rally in soybeans outside of the US getting a trade deal with China. Corn is trying to separate itself from the soy market, but is having difficulty generating any momentum given the size of this year’s crop. With early intentions for significantly more acres going to corn next spring it may be a long road ahead for both commodities. Cash prices for next fall are currently in the $3.70-3.75 range and should be viewed as a good sale for 20% of your expected production next year. Being pro-active with small sales is the best option in depressed markets with limited gains on the horizon.

Reminder that all loads delivered to Didion must be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 22, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans up 5 after a productive harvest weekend. Forecasts look good for corn and soybean harvest this week with slight chances of rain next weekend. This week’s weather should allow local producers to make significant progress or complete soybeans. Harvest progress will be released this afternoon and is expected to be ahead of last year and the five year average. Keep in minds that this afternoons report will not include all of the activity from the weekend.
Friday’s Cattle on feed was below expectations at 105.4% vs. 106.4%. Placements were 95.4% vs. 100.1% estimate and marketing’s were 96.4% vs. 97%.
Funds ended the week long just over 2000 contracts of corn after a strong week of buying. We will continue to monitor this position as it is a great indicator of where the market is headed.
Look for the markets to remain range bound with traders continuing to monitor export forecasts and South American weather.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 18, 2018

Good Morning,

Commodities are lower this morning as harvest is now widespread across the corn-belt with clear weather. Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 13 to begin the day. We will watch to see if the CZ18 market can close above the 100 day moving average of 3.7175 today which it has for the past 3 days.
Weekly export sales were light for both corn and soybeans. Corn was reported at 15 million bushel which is about ½ of the ten week average. Soybean sales came in at 10.8 million bushels which is 8 million below the ten week average.
Both China and the US said a meeting regarding tariffs at the G20 summit in November may not happen. This may push the technical traders back to the bearish side until this meeting is officially happens. Increased exports to Argentina are not happening as logistics in Argentina are unable to handle additional volume.
Didion is still buying spot and contract corn for October or November delivery, but as harvest progresses this may not be the case. If you are going to need to move additional bushels this fall I would suggest making cash sales or basis sales ASAP. I would not be surprised to see basis to widen in the next week or two.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 16, 2018

Good Morning,

Turnaround Tuesday as corn, beans and wheat open 3-10-3 respectively lower this morning. Soybeans were the catalyst for all commodities yesterday as traders continued to cover their short positions. Talk of quality issues, strong NOPA crush and reports of sales to China added fuel to the funds buying. Corn followed along with some technical short covering taking place. The fund are now long corn for the first time since June 12, 2018.

Corn harvest pace is ahead of the 5 year average at 39% complete for the country. Wisconsin harvest is 11% ahead of last year and 3% ahead of the five year average at 19% complete. With a favorable week of weather ahead of us this should increase dramatically by next week’s report. I would expect the markets trade lower with harvest hedge pressure in the coming week unless we see more speculative money enter the commodities.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844

October 15, 2018

Good Morning,

Soybeans are leading the way higher this morning as they try to maintain last week’s upward trend. Currently trading 10 higher this market is looking for life that may not be around long. President trump commented on Saturday that the Chinese President may not be ready to make a deal when the two leaders meet at the G20 meeting in Argentina.
Corn is trading 2 higher to start the week. A weaker dollar is helping support the export markets and offering hope that we will see improves sales in Q4 for corn.
Weather across the corn-belt looks to be dry for this week and beyond while temperatures remain below average.
Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
92-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com