November 28, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 1 and soybeans are up 5 to start the day.
Monday was another bad day for the grains as traders added to their short positions. The Funds have pushed the position past 200,000 shorts. I think the low for now will come right around 1st notice day(Thursday). In good markets, prices tend to put the low in ahead of harvest, in bad markets they tend to liquidate into First Notice Day. In really bad markets, you get a bump in prices after the roll, and then liquidate again as the next contract is ready to move off the board into Delivery. (This would be February, against the March contract). If this trend follows, producers should look to market grain in December and January for the next several months as we may see new lows posted in February and March. The funds are currently estimated to be short 220,000 corn contracts which is nearing the short position of 250,000 contracts that I predicted a couple weeks ago.
Producers are advised to get firm offers in for sales they intend to make in the next 9 months and for 2024 new crop sales. We have a lot of time, but the bounces may be few and far between. Give us a call to help you select the target that is best for you.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
November 27, 2023
Good morning,
The corn market is picking up where it left off on Friday with the markets down 6 to start the day.
Weekend rainfall in Brazil ranged from 1-4.5 inches in the South and up to 2 inches in the North. The current forecast looks pretty wet in both the short term and long-range forecasts. This will continue to be the market mover as we progress thru South Americas planting and early growth stages.
Private analysts Safras & Mercado on Friday estimated 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production at 161.4 MMT, down from 163.25 MMT previously: that’s despite planted acreage rising from 44.68 to 45.62 million hectares (110.4 to 112.7 million acres).
Private analysts AgRural estimated Brazilian soybean planting at 74% complete as of Thursday, up from 68% last week but still behind 87% last year and the slowest pace since 2015/16. Center-south corn planting hit 83% complete this week, up from 80% last week but behind 88% a year ago.
Its going to take a change in forecasts in South America to put any kind of support in this market. As traders look at a large US crop and record acres in South America the world supply is not going to demand higher prices currently. Producers should be actively selling on any pop in the market for nearby through mid-summer.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
November 16, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 2 and soybeans are down 10 to start the day.
Soybeans are leading the market lower this morning as rains look to develop in the 10-15 day forecast for Brazil and Argentina. If this forecast holds up, it may start toe change the story for soybeans which recently have been corns only hope of moving higher.
President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met yesterday and agreed to open a presidential hotline, resume military-to-military communications and work to curb fentanyl production. There was nothing reported from their meeting that related to the ag markets which is not promising.
The Commitment of Traders report continues to show the managed money with its shortest position in the past 3 years. With a short position of 176k contracts, the market won’t feel heavy on shorts until they get to the 250+ contract level. S. American weather may still have the power to cause the shorts to cover, time will tell. Look for the markets to continue the range bound trade for the next couple months with South American weather being the only real mover.
My advice to producers it to have offers in place with your elevators or end users to market corn on any bounces in the market. $5 cash may be the high mark for any sales this marketing year and may only be attainable in the spring and summer months. Sales that you need to make between now and March should be targeted in the $4.75-5.00 range. Soybeans have more opportunity to move higher with smaller stocks and higher demand, so that is the commodity I would store for now.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
November 6, 2023
Good morning
The markets are quiet to start the day with corn unchanged and soybeans up 7.
Soybeans were the market leader on Friday and again this morning as adverse Brazilian weather has given the bean market some support. It is very early in the South American planting window but like every year, weather will be monitored closely.
The Funds really piled into the short side of the corn market last week to get it back to the September lows. With very good yields being reported across the US and an absent export market it is going to be difficult to see things move higher.
The USDA will release their November production report at 11am on Thursday this week. With private estimates showing a higher yield than the USDA’s 173 bpa last month, I expect to see the markets trend sideways leading up to the report. Producers should look to make sales of both corn and soybeans ahead of the report to protect against further selloffs.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
November 2, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 2 and soybeans are up 10 to start this Thursday morning.
StoneX yesterday estimated U.S. corn yields at 175.7 bushels per acre, up from 175.5 bpa last month, with production implied at 15.302 billion bushels, 238 mbu above the USDA October figure. Soybean yields fell slightly from 50.4 to 50.3 bpa, with production at 4.162 bln bu, 58 mln bu above the USDA.
China is reportedly buying significant volumes of wheat lately to make up for a damaged domestic drop and global weather concerns; traders see bookings from Australia at around two million tonnes this month, and purchases of French wheat at around 2.5 MMT since September. China imported a record 9.96 MMT of wheat in calendar 2022 but imports are expected to top that by around 2 MMT in 2023 and continue well into 2024. Jan-Sept imports are up 54% to 10.17 MMT already, according to Chinese customs data, including 6.4 MMT from Australia and 1.8 MMT from Canada.
Despite the continued drop in CBOT values the US is still not the cheapest grain available to the world market. We will continue to make small sales, but baring any dramatic weather issues in South America our sales will be limited.
Producers should continue to sell corn out of the field as prices do not look to move significantly higher anytime soon. Producers should also be looking at next falls prices and target locking in $5 corn when/if it gets there.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
