November 6, 2023
Good morning
The markets are quiet to start the day with corn unchanged and soybeans up 7.
Soybeans were the market leader on Friday and again this morning as adverse Brazilian weather has given the bean market some support. It is very early in the South American planting window but like every year, weather will be monitored closely.
The Funds really piled into the short side of the corn market last week to get it back to the September lows. With very good yields being reported across the US and an absent export market it is going to be difficult to see things move higher.
The USDA will release their November production report at 11am on Thursday this week. With private estimates showing a higher yield than the USDA’s 173 bpa last month, I expect to see the markets trend sideways leading up to the report. Producers should look to make sales of both corn and soybeans ahead of the report to protect against further selloffs.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
November 2, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 2 and soybeans are up 10 to start this Thursday morning.
StoneX yesterday estimated U.S. corn yields at 175.7 bushels per acre, up from 175.5 bpa last month, with production implied at 15.302 billion bushels, 238 mbu above the USDA October figure. Soybean yields fell slightly from 50.4 to 50.3 bpa, with production at 4.162 bln bu, 58 mln bu above the USDA.
China is reportedly buying significant volumes of wheat lately to make up for a damaged domestic drop and global weather concerns; traders see bookings from Australia at around two million tonnes this month, and purchases of French wheat at around 2.5 MMT since September. China imported a record 9.96 MMT of wheat in calendar 2022 but imports are expected to top that by around 2 MMT in 2023 and continue well into 2024. Jan-Sept imports are up 54% to 10.17 MMT already, according to Chinese customs data, including 6.4 MMT from Australia and 1.8 MMT from Canada.
Despite the continued drop in CBOT values the US is still not the cheapest grain available to the world market. We will continue to make small sales, but baring any dramatic weather issues in South America our sales will be limited.
Producers should continue to sell corn out of the field as prices do not look to move significantly higher anytime soon. Producers should also be looking at next falls prices and target locking in $5 corn when/if it gets there.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 25, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are continuing their selloff this morning with corn down 3 and soybeans down 11.
Crude oil has had a tough week trading $5 lower than Fridays close. It seems like everyone is on edge waiting to see what is going to happen next in the Middle East. Eventually, something is going to happen and oils direction will be influenced.
Corn broke its recent uptrend as the weight of a good crop and heavy carryout for 2024 is coming to the forefront. Corn is going to have a hard time to muster any significant rallies with the farmer well undersold and demand not tightening carryout.
Producers should be making sales on any bumps in the market!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
October 24, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 4 and soybeans are up 3 to start the day.
Corn harvest progress came in at 59% complete as of Sunday night, up from 45% last week and the 54% five-year average, but right in line with last year. Soybean harvest rose from 62% to 76% done, up from the 67% five-year average, but below 78% last year.
There was a Chinese diplomat in Iowa yesterday, but little coverage of the visit. The event wasn’t publicized leading up to the event or after, but it doesn’t appear any new sales were negotiated or agreed to. This is not the first time for a Chinese diplomat to visit Iowa, but it usually happens in the Spring and is tied to new sales agreements. The timing of this one and the lack of new sales raises questions.
It appears the corn market is going to be dependent on soybeans and wheat for any move higher. With export demand in Q4 looking terrible and better than expected yields coming off across the Midwest, things look to remain depressed.
Producers are advised to take advantage of any small spikes in the CBOT to make new sales.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 23, 2023
Good morning,
Continuation from Friday’s selloff this morning as corn is currently trading 3 lower while soybeans are 4 lower.
Ukraine shot down 14 attack drones and a cruise missile fired by Russia at its south and east overnight, but debris from a downed drone damaged a warehouse at the Black Sea port of Odesa, officials said. Russia has intensified attacks on port and grain infrastructure since quitting a grain deal in July.
Weekend rains in Argentina and Southern Brazil along with forecasts for rain in the north have soybeans on the defensive. Corn and wheat do not have much in terms of bullish news, but Fridays Cattle on Feed report was more supportive than expected. Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.58 million head, or 100.6% of last year—that was well above the average 99.7% trade estimate. September cattle placements came in at 106.1% of last year, well above the 100.8% trade guess, with Sept marketings at 89.4% of LY, below the 90.3% trade expectation.
Producers across the country are targeting $5 with their next sale and some were able to hit that level last Thursday. I would advise producers to get offers in with your buyers at this level for December forward. Hitting this level for October or November delivery seems unattainable, but post-harvest we could get there.
Prices are back in the range, not ready yet to move higher. Most Mondays have been lower during harvest and higher in the middle of the week and weaker again on Friday.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
