Daily Insights

August 29, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn opened the day 1 higher with a market that appears oversold and is looking for a reason to stabilize or turn slightly higher. Good weather and pressure from soybeans has kept pressure on the market this week. With yesterday’s trade, December corn has closed lower in seven of the last eight sessions. The selling pressure has corn and beans testing their July lows as farmers clean out bins in preparation for harvest. The “forced” selling of old corn and soybeans has resulted in seasonal lows in late August and September the last few years and will do the same this year.
Producers with old crop corn or soybeans to move and sales that need to be made before the new year have run out of time and will have to deal with the current prices. At this point in the game, a 5-10 cent move higher would be a miracle without some political help. Producers with bins to clean out or new crop sales to make should give us a call to discuss Accumulator options that will help add to your bottom line.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

August 28, 2018

Good Morning,

Weaker markets this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans down 11. News that the US and Mexico had reached an agreement on trade along with news that Canadian Trade Minister is scheduled to meet with his counterpart in Washington DC has help to increase the optimism that negotiations will produce a new NAFTA by the end of the week. President Trump continues to highlight the fact that the US farmer will be one of the largest beneficiaries of the new deal between the US and Mexico as they are the biggest buyer of US corn.
The USDA announced a farm aid package totaling 4.7B for losses incurred through the White House’s trade war with China. Soybean farmers have obviously taken the brunt of the retaliatory efforts from China and as such will receive the bulk of this payment. According to the package outlined yesterday, soybean farmers will receive $1.65/bu. times .50% of their 2018 production. Corn farmers are left feeling slighted as they are only scheduled to receive just $.01/bu. and no payments for wheat growers. The USDA has not ruled out a second round of financial aid in December should the trade war with China stretch into this winter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

August 27, 2018

Good Morning,

This morning corn is down 2 cents and soybeans are down 13 cents. December corn is down nearly 30 cents for the month and Soybeans are down over 75 cents for the month with a week to go.
Pro Farmers tour ended last week and they project the national corn yield to be 177.3 bu/acre +/- 1% (175.5 to 179.1) This compares to the USDA’s August estimate of 178.4. It is interesting to note that Pro Farmer has underestimated the final number 6 years in a row by a range of 120 to 650 million bushels. This would result in a yield of 178.1 to 185.1. Weakness in soybeans and wheat continue to add more pressure to the corn complex.
The US and China trade talks are idle with no new tariffs in place. The lack of Chinese demand and increases in yield estimates for this year’s soybean crop have soybeans trending towards contract lows. As of this morning November soybeans are just 15 cents off the contract lows.
As of Fridays close, funds were short 69k corn contracts and 55k soybean contracts. I look for lower markets this week with month end and the start of new crop contracts just 5 trading days away. Producers with old crop to price have run out of time and should get things priced now. Any new crop sales that will have to be made before the end of the year should be priced now as well. I would advise holding off on pricing any grain that can be stored on farm in hopes of rallies this winter or early next spring.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

August 23, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is currently down three, and soybeans down seven. Similar to last year, it’s tough to find bullish news at the end of August. Currently we are facing trade war headlines, great weather, a lot of old crop yet to move, and having to price CU18 by end of month/month end positioning. The only potential that I see is either coming to the new month and supply and demand reports.

With crop tours projecting strong yields and great weather forecasts, not much is still standing between having a strong harvest come fall. With that being said we need to really look at options to move remaining old crop corn, whether being cash, basis, or other options. Please call to discuss what can be done.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

August 22, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is currently down three, and soybeans down eleven. Market continues to slip as ProFarmer Tour continues to see great yield, overall. Yesterday, Nebraska yield estimated at 179.2 versus the 3-year average of 163.1. With this being said, there is still a lot of ground to cover, surprises could still be in store for their later yield checks on the tour. Chinese officials are still in the U.S. on talks about a resolution to the trade war.

With crop tours projecting strong yields and great weather forecasts, not much is still standing between having a strong harvest come fall. With that being said we need to really look at options to move remaining old crop corn, whether being cash, basis, or other options. Please call to discuss what can be done.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com