October 25, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are continuing their selloff this morning with corn down 3 and soybeans down 11.
Crude oil has had a tough week trading $5 lower than Fridays close. It seems like everyone is on edge waiting to see what is going to happen next in the Middle East. Eventually, something is going to happen and oils direction will be influenced.
Corn broke its recent uptrend as the weight of a good crop and heavy carryout for 2024 is coming to the forefront. Corn is going to have a hard time to muster any significant rallies with the farmer well undersold and demand not tightening carryout.
Producers should be making sales on any bumps in the market!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
October 24, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 4 and soybeans are up 3 to start the day.
Corn harvest progress came in at 59% complete as of Sunday night, up from 45% last week and the 54% five-year average, but right in line with last year. Soybean harvest rose from 62% to 76% done, up from the 67% five-year average, but below 78% last year.
There was a Chinese diplomat in Iowa yesterday, but little coverage of the visit. The event wasn’t publicized leading up to the event or after, but it doesn’t appear any new sales were negotiated or agreed to. This is not the first time for a Chinese diplomat to visit Iowa, but it usually happens in the Spring and is tied to new sales agreements. The timing of this one and the lack of new sales raises questions.
It appears the corn market is going to be dependent on soybeans and wheat for any move higher. With export demand in Q4 looking terrible and better than expected yields coming off across the Midwest, things look to remain depressed.
Producers are advised to take advantage of any small spikes in the CBOT to make new sales.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 23, 2023
Good morning,
Continuation from Friday’s selloff this morning as corn is currently trading 3 lower while soybeans are 4 lower.
Ukraine shot down 14 attack drones and a cruise missile fired by Russia at its south and east overnight, but debris from a downed drone damaged a warehouse at the Black Sea port of Odesa, officials said. Russia has intensified attacks on port and grain infrastructure since quitting a grain deal in July.
Weekend rains in Argentina and Southern Brazil along with forecasts for rain in the north have soybeans on the defensive. Corn and wheat do not have much in terms of bullish news, but Fridays Cattle on Feed report was more supportive than expected. Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.58 million head, or 100.6% of last year—that was well above the average 99.7% trade estimate. September cattle placements came in at 106.1% of last year, well above the 100.8% trade guess, with Sept marketings at 89.4% of LY, below the 90.3% trade expectation.
Producers across the country are targeting $5 with their next sale and some were able to hit that level last Thursday. I would advise producers to get offers in with your buyers at this level for December forward. Hitting this level for October or November delivery seems unattainable, but post-harvest we could get there.
Prices are back in the range, not ready yet to move higher. Most Mondays have been lower during harvest and higher in the middle of the week and weaker again on Friday.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 17, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are bouncing on both sides of unchanged this am with corn currently up 3 and soybeans down 3.
With harvest roughly halfway over, the markets are starting to see some signs of life. Soybeans are finally trading above $13 on the CBOT and corn is approaching the $5 mark on the CBOT.
After a weekend of wet weather, forecasts have cleared up and the harvest is progressing. The 6-10 day warms up which should allow harvest to stay at if not ahead of the average pace.
With harvest hitting full stride, producers should be looking ahead and making plans for space. With large wheat and soybean crops occupying commercial space its going to make corn space a premium. This will result in longer lines, slower dumping and basis levels that are historically wider than normal. I would advise producers to take advantage of current basis levels to lock in that portion of your pricing to guarantee space and avoid the wider basis levels that are expected. This will give you the opportunity to carry the crop into December or the first of the new year when we could see CBOT prices bounce.
Give us a call to see what options are available.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 16, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are mixed to start the week with corn down 3 and soybeans up 3.
Soybeans continue to draw support from last week’s report while corn has no story and is just along for the ride at this point.
Some analysts believe future cuts to production are still possible, but recent history says the USDA could rachet production higher as we move forward. With exports lagging and future decreases to demand it could be difficult to see any rally in the markets.
The US Midwest will see mixed precipitation over the next ten days which will slow harvest progress. This afternoon’s crop conditions for soybeans and corn are expected to be unchanged while harvest progress will probably be near average for this time of year. Harvest was slowed late last week across most of the corn belt as rains rolled through.
Producers should be making cash sales or at a minimum basis sales on any corn they cannot store this fall as things look to stay depressed for the foreseeable future. If you are bullish the market, make sales and re-own the grain on paper later.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
