Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 15 to start the day ahead of the USDA report.

This morning Conab cut their official 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production estimate from 155.2 to 149.4 MMT, with corn down from 117.6 to 113.7 MMT; second crop corn output fell from 91.2 to 88.1 MMT this month.

The USDA will release their February numbers at 11:00 am. Estimates are listed below.

 USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Conab came out lesser Brazilian corn and bean crops, now it’s up to the USDA next at 11:00 today.  Will the adjustments be minor, or will they make the larger cut in Brazilian crops?  Harvest data suggest the crop is down 15% in Mato Grosso and Parana in both corn and beans.  US balance sheets will go mostly unchanged.  Corn exports have been strong, and beans are on the losing pace in exports predicted.  Crush is ahead of pace for soybeans, so it unlikely the carryout grows today.  This report is usually not a big one and the markets are already down heading into it in very oversold conditions, especially corn.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are falling again this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 11.

Rains arriving in Argentina and chart-based selling by AI trading have markets weaker.  Corn was weak all day yesterday and has made a new low this morning. Argentine rains fell center-south yesterday, and light rains are on tap there again today, with heavier and more widespread action ahead tomorrow through Sunday as temperatures trend cooler through the weekend as well. 6–10-day maps push out rain chances to the far west and north. Scattered rains again fell throughout center-north Brazil over the past 24 hours, also increasing in scope and amounts through the weekend, with rain chances moving out here as well to the west and south during the 6–10-day time frame.

The Funds are short 283,000 corn, short 111,000 beans, short 18,000 meal, short 54,000 beans oil, and short 75,000 wheat.

Beans have dropped through 12 dollars again.  The USDA report is out tomorrow, but most believe that reports will be bearish corn and beans.  The market is breaking ahead of it, kind of like the last report. Tomorrow’s estimates are listed below.

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 3 and soybeans are up 3 to start the day.

AgRural reported Brazilian center-south corn planting at 27% complete, up 11% on the week and the fastest pace since record began in 2013. The soybean crop is 16% harvested, up five points on the week.

Rains fell in southern Argentina yesterday but fill in to almost all crop areas through Saturday; forecasts are wetter north/drier south for the 6-10 day. Brazil saw some widespread rains over the past 24 hours, and more is on the way over the next five days, with the best chances shifting west/south for the 6-10.

We will get the February WASDE report on Thursday the 8^th at 11am. This report is usually uneventful from a domestic standpoint and the trade doesn’t expect to see any major changes in the US demand picture.

Thursday will also bring CONAB’s report on the latest Brazilian numbers. Both CONAB and the USDA remain much higher than many in the trade for the Brazilian soybean production numbers. It will be interesting to see if either one of them adjust lower on Thursday.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are higher to start the day with corn up 4, soybeans up 10 and wheat up 2.

The weather remains hot and dry in Argentina but has had no bullish impact.  Yesterday some beans were bought out of the Southeast US from Brazil.  Brazilian basis has dropped to the level where small amounts of beans can be imported to the Carolina’s.

Argentina will be mostly dry until the 11–15-day period, with rain chances confined to fringe crop areas over the next ten days. Brazil started to see some scattered showers yesterday and chances look good in the north through Saturday, improving in central crop areas next week, still driest in the south.

Both corn and soybean markets are struggling to hold rallies recently. Corn is fighting to hold short-term support but is struggling to find a bullish catalyst. Corn export inspections continue to hold pace while soybeans fall a bit further behind as concerns grow around the Chinese economy and their demand.

Take advantage of the up days in the market to make sales as they appear to be few and far between.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

All grain markets are starting the week off lower with corn down 5, soybeans down 10 and wheat down 7.

A drone strike killed three U.S. service members today in Jordan, creating fears of an escalating regional war in the Middle East. The strike by Iran-backed militants wounded at least 34 other service members. Iran denies involvement, but it’s widely believed that Iran is involved in the dozens of attacks on U.S. forces in recent months, with today’s fatalities bound to raise political pressure on the Biden Administration to have a strong response in an election year.

Not much has materially changed since late last week. Funds continue to add on to their net short positions amid good weather across South America, promoting a good harvest pace for soybeans in Brazil followed by rapid second corn crop planting progress. Argentina’s weather forecast for the week two is wetter than that of Sunday.

Argentine production estimates are rising to further offset losses in Brazil. The focus will soon shift to the U.S. Midwest planting season. Corn must lose acres this year to avoid a ballooning balance sheet. Some analysts are proclaiming that soybeans must gain acres to avoid being tight in the year ahead. I do expect soybeans to gain acres, and corn to lose some, but I disagree that soybeans “must” gain acres.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com