September 1, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are stronger heading into the extended weekend. Corn is up 5 and soybeans are up 4 to start the day.
The long-range trend in weather for the Central US is still mostly dry and hot. The hurricane is breaking up the atmosphere and holding the ridge at bay, but that changes this weekend. Another tough week is forecast for bean development.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said they see “no sign of new guarantees” on their side of the Black Sea grain export deal, ahead of a meeting with Turkish officials brokered by the United Nations; they are still looking for “uninterrupted export of their own grain and fertilizer”. U.N. officials said they had sent Lavrov “a set of concrete proposals” aimed at reviving a deal.
The markets are forming a low and I think we head higher over time. The question is what will move them higher. I do think that producers need to reset their price expectations that have been in place for the last couple years. $6 and $7 corn are not in the cards.
Have a good Labor Day weekend!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 25, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 17 to start the day.
Day four of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated Iowa corn yields at 182.8 bushels per acre, down from 183.8 bpa last year and the 184.1 bpa three-year average; soybean pod counts averaged 1,190, up from 1,174 last year and the 1,180-pod 3YA. Minnesota corn yields came in at 181.3 bpa, down from 190.4 bpa last year and the 187.6 bpa 3YA figure; soybean pod counts averaged 984, down from 1,101 last season and the 1,071-pod 3YA count.
The weather forecast for the next 2 weeks is hot and dry across the Central US. There really isn’t much rain anywhere in the models. There may be some pop-up thunderstorms as the ridge breaks down, but it returns around September 2nd. The ridge heats up into September 4th and remains hot until the end of the model run below on the 7th.
Despite the warmer forecast the markets are still holding a a bearish tone, especially in corn. Ultimately it all circles back to demand and that has not been good recently and is not forecasted to be good moving forward. As I have stated before, we could drop the US yield to 170 bpa(USDA currently at 175.1) and we would still have a stocks/use ratio greater than 12%.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 22, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are weaker this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 8.
Day one of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found Ohio corn yields averaging 183.94 bushels per acre, up from 174.2 bpa last year and the 175.6 bpa three-year average. Soybean pod counts averaged 1,253, up from 1,132 last year and the 1,161 3YA.
The western leg found South Dakota corn yields averaged 157.4 bpa, up from 118.5 bpa last year and the 149.7 bpa 5YA; pod counts averaged 1,013, up from 871 last season but below 1,040 pods on average.
Corn condition ratings fell one point this week to 58% good/ excellent, up from 55% last year but below the 61% five-year average pace; corn doughing, denting, and maturity remained at of ahead of comparable metrics at 78%, 35%, and 4% (initially), respectively.
The forecast is the same as yesterday with hot dry weather setting into the Central US. The hottest temperature of the summer are developing this week. Temps stay hot out west for the duration of the model run over the next 15 days.
Reminder – Farm Safety Field Day is taking place tomorrow. Call today if you haven’t registered yet. Details are listed below.
Wednesday August 23
10:00am-2:00pm (registration starts at 9:30am)
Attoe Farms
W6790 Attoe Drive
Poynette, WI 53955
(Event will be held inside a cooled shed.)
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
August 21, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are up 3 in corn, up 22 in beans and down 5 in wheat to start the week on forecast for hot and dry weather as Pro Farmer begins their tour this week.
The 10-day forecast is hot and dry and extreme heat is forecast into the beginning of September with another ridge developing. This forecast has the soybean markets strengthening but has not spilled over into corn to the same degree. With an already tight balance sheet, very little wiggle room exists for the oilseed to lose production without prices having to ration further demand. This afternoon’s crop progress reports should show steady to improved ratings vs. last week, but how much will yield potential be dinged over the next two weeks of hot/dry weather?
This year’s Pro Farmer tour kicks off today and goes through Thursday. Last year the markets rallied during this tour as poor yields and trouble areas were identified. It will be interesting to see what they find when they step into the fields this year. In the last 10 years, the Pro Farmer yield estimates for corn were below the USDA 8 times by an average of 4.5 bushels.
Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of August 1 at 11.030 million head, or 97.7% of last year; that was below the average trade estimate at 98.3% of last year. July cattle placements came in at 91.7% of LY, below the 94.5% guess, with July marketings at 94.7% of LY, a tick below the 94.8% expectation.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 18, 2023
Good morning,
Markets higher to start the day with corn up 5, soybeans up 14 and wheat up 15.
Hot dry weather is forecast next week as Pro Farmer starts their tour of the Midwest. Pro Famer’s estimates of yield generally trend with the USDA but have missed yield considerably as they use average ear weights in their final formulation. Soybeans estimates are similar as it matters how large or small final seed sizes are.
The first container ship (which carried at least some grain) to leave Ukraine’s Odesa port post-Black Sea deal has safely reached the Istanbul strait today. Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced plans to restore a Black Sea grain corridor without Russia’s agreement, in addition to alternative routes that have been developed and aided by neighboring countries. Romania’s Prime Minister said he’s looking for 60% of Ukraine grain exports to move through Romania, though he said the doubling of grain capacity through the country is an “ambitious target”.
The forecast is hot and dry to finish out the month of August. The strongest dome this summer sets up next week and remains above average temperatures on the 15-day model run. The dome pushes rain up into Northern Canada and into the far western US.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
