December 28, 2023
Good morning,
Grain markets remained quiet this morning with corn unchanged, soybeans up 2 and wheat up 7.
To say the corn market has been struggling to find some bullish news is an understatement. The March futures have traded in a 30-cent window and all sub $5 for the last two months. Finding anything that is going to move it higher, let alone north of $5 in the next couple months is going to be a struggle. With higher US and world stocks compounded with a lack of significant demand and a south American crop that is looking like a record, it could be a tough first quarter for grain.
South American weather, the January 12th USDA Crop Production report and global political wars are the hope to move things higher in the coming months, but they are a long shot.
Producers are advised to take this time to meet with your buyers to discuss what levels are attainable and put firm offers in place. Little moves in the market should be sold as the likelihood of big moves is not realistic in a surplus year. With higher interest rates, carrying costs are much higher than last year and need to be accounted for.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
December 26, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are mixed following the holiday break with corn up 2, wheat up 11 and soybeans down 2.
Weekend rain totals in Brazil were on the light side with most of the coverage either up North or West. The 1–5-day forecast does not have much rain in it, but 10-day period does. This is the same forecast we’ve been seeing for weeks.
Both corn and soybean planting in Argentina saw progress over the last week with soybean planting at 69% complete which is 11% behind the 10-year average but 8% ahead of last year. Corn planting was 59% complete, which is 12% behind the 10-year average but 7% ahead of last year.
Look for trade volume to be light this week with fewer traders during the holiday season. This could lead to more volatility if there is any bullish or bearish news.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
608-217-6592
December 18, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 3, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is down 6 to start the week.
AgRural reported Brazilian soybean planting at 94% complete as of Thursday, up three points on the week, but down from previous seasons where the planting campaign was already complete at this point.
Brazil was mostly dry over the weekend while Argentina saw beneficial rains.
Limited rain for Northern Brazil are forecasted to begin mid-week and bring some degree of relief. One to two inches of rain are forecast to move into the driest areas.
Price movement this week will depend on the rain amounts into Northern Brazil. It was hot over the weekend with temps hitting as high as 108 degrees. This rain needs to fall, or the crop will take turn for the worse after all of this heat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 15, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 1, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is up 5 to start the day.
Argentine farm associations yesterday came out in opposition of a planned government export tax hike, which would move corn and wheat export taxes from 12% to 15%. The government also reopened their grain export registry yesterday after it had closed on Monday; the Argentine peso was sharply devalued in between, to curb inflation and cut down their deficit.
Crop progress in Argentina is 49% planted in corn at rated at 40% good to excellent vs 18% g/ex last year. Soybeans are 60% planted at rated at 30% good/excellent vs 19% last year.
Hot weather has set in Brazil where temperatures were in the 90’s to 100’s and look to stay there until about next Thursday. Rain is forecast after the breakdown of the ridge that is supposed to drop .25-1.75 inches in some of the drier areas of Brazil.
Look for a quiet trade today in corn with some pressure in soybeans as traders take positions and monitor Brazil and Argeninta weather forecasts.
Producers should be making January and February sales to core bins and keep grain fresh. Targets of $4.65-$4.80 should be the goal with very little market news expected in the next two weeks.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 14, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 1, soybeans and wheat are bot up 5 to start the day.
Markets were lower yesterday as the market adjusted to various changing conditions in Argentina. The devaluation of the peso from the 365 level to the 800 mark was an aggressive move. Originally it was reported that export taxes could be removed but taxes went higher in the near term to help the government raise funds with the promise to back off down the line. This means that going forward the Argentinian crop is more likely available to world buyers without special conditions like the ‘soydollar’ program to move product. If this continues, it will keep a bearish vibe in the markets especially with the potential size of this years Argentina crop.
Brazilian weather will see a heat wave over the next 5 days. Temps will be in the 90’s to 100’s. Rain will be limited in 2/3rds of Brazil. The heavy rains are in the South down in Argentina. The forecast for central and northern Brazil still advertises rain across the northern areas late next week. The hot temperatures are also expected to break by around Tuesday.
Weekly exports released this morning showed corn at 55.8 million bushels, which is slightly above the 10-week average of 51.9 million. The negative news in corn exports is the actual shipments. Today’s report showed that only 35% of corn sales have shipped. This is concerning to me because I believe most of the sales that we have on could be cancelled in the coming months. These recent flash sales are only an insurance policy for the foreign buyers if the South American crop is smaller than projected. If South America has a decent crop, these current sales will be cancelled or bought back and replaced with cheaper Brazilian or Argentina corn.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
