Good morning,

All markets are lower this morning with corn down 6, soybeans down 15 and wheat down 14.

Economic changes developing in Argentina have brought the market lower overnight.  A devaluation of currency and a cut in government spending are making the headlines this morning.  Argentina wants to take the taxes off of Agricultural goods, their number one supply of government income.  Argentina is currently in bankruptcy with the IMF and owes 44 billion dollars regardless of what they want to do policy wise.  They’ll have to come up with the money or default on the default!

The grain industry in Argentina was expected to meet with Argentina’s new administration late Tuesday after the new fiscal measures are announced.  Announcements were expected around 2 pm Central on Tuesday but came out later in the day. Argentina is battling triple digit inflation as well as foreign currency reserves estimated at a negative $10 billion. Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced the Argentine Peso would be weakened to 800 per dollar from 365 now.  He also said the government would reduce energy and transport subsidies but double the social spending on the poorest people.  The poverty rate in Argentina is currently above 40%.

The weather in Brazil is currently hot and dry.  The short-term forecast has the hot air mass extending out into the 11–15-day period.  The 10-day forecast has plenty of rain for Southern Brazil and Argentina, where temps are normal.  Northern Brazil is hot with temps in the 90’s to 100’s and rains have been hard to come by. The 11-15 day forecast still shows a return to rain.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

This mornings the markets all have their own agenda. Corn is down 4, soybeans are up 18 and wheat is down 17.

The weather in Brazil has soybeans higher overnight.  Some hot temperatures are moving in again this week, knocking some of the rain out that was forecast early this week.  The long range forecast still calls for rain and shows a significant change in Southern Brazil.  The heavy rains are supposed to let up.   Weekend totals were light with trace to an inch in only about 15% of Central and Northern Brazil.

As expected, Friday’s report was a quiet monthly report from USDA.  They did make minor upward adjustments to U.S. corn and wheat exports, they were largely immaterial in the big picture view of their respective balance sheets while USDA completely left the U.S. soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil balance sheets unchanged from last month. World revisions were also limited with only a minor downward revision to the Brazilian soybean crop, as expected, for South American estimates.

The USDA’s 2.131 billion bushel ending stocks estimate still reflects a massive 57% increase from last year’s 1.361 billion bushels, with their 14.7% stocks/usage ratio estimate easily still the highest in five years. With the expected notable rise in U.S. corn stocks this year, combined with sharply higher Ukraine stocks ideas on their reduced ability to export, USDA sees world corn ending stocks excluding China this year rising to 113.2 MMT from 94.1 MMT in 22/23 and would be a six-year high – another negative fundamental influence for the corn market.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 12 to start the day.

Heavier rains are forecast in Mato Grosso next week, light amounts fell this week.  Southern Brazil continues to see heavy rains which will extend into next week.  Temperatures have been pretty warm this week with a few hot spots on the heat maps.

USDA December report will be released at 11am today. Estimates are listed below.

USDA 2022/23 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

As for what happens today on the USDA report, probably not a lot.  Exports have been good, but it’s the first quarter, so maybe no adjustments are needed today.  We may see some adjustments to Brazil’s yields, but it’s early in the season so that could be delayed.  There are also not a lot of changes made to US carryout on this report, most years it just stays the same. The January 12^th report is where we typically get the market to move. This year that January report could result in lower markets if they increase production like I am expecting.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are unchanged this morning and wheat is up 9.

An improved weather forecast for South America has been pressuring bean prices (old and new). Futures are at their lowest value in over a month. Corn prices appear to be stabilizing after setting new lows last week. The upside in corn looks to be very limited given the size of this year’s crop and the amount of unpriced corn still on farm coupled with a lack of demand so far.

Brazilian farmers have seeded 82% of the soybean crop down about 10% from the ten-year average.  The first crop corn is 65% planted versus 79% on the 10-year average.  The forecast continues to show heavier rains developing in the long-range timeline which will incentivize planting.

StoneX Brazil on Friday cut their 2023/24 soybean production estimate from 165.0 million metric ton (MMT) to 161.9 MMT, still above 157.7 MMT last season. First-crop corn production fell from 26.8 to 26.5 MMT this month, down from 28.6 MMT last year, with second-crop output seen at 97.3 MMT, down from 99.0 MMT last month and 108.4 MMT LY. Total corn production came in at 126.0 MMT this season, down from 139.2 MMT in 2022/23

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are up 5 to start the day.

Monday was another bad day for the grains as traders added to their short positions. The Funds have pushed the position past 200,000 shorts.  I think the low for now will come right around 1st notice day(Thursday).  In good markets, prices tend to put the low in ahead of harvest, in bad markets they tend to liquidate into First Notice Day.  In really bad markets, you get a bump in prices after the roll, and then liquidate again as the next contract is ready to move off the board into Delivery.  (This would be February, against the March contract).  If this trend follows, producers should look to market grain in December and January for the next several months as we may see new lows posted in February and March. The funds are currently estimated to be short 220,000 corn contracts which is nearing the short position of 250,000 contracts that I predicted a couple weeks ago.

Producers are advised to get firm offers in for sales they intend to make in the next 9 months and for 2024 new crop sales. We have a lot of time, but the bounces may be few and far between. Give us a call to help you select the target that is best for you.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com