August 22, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are weaker this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 8.
Day one of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found Ohio corn yields averaging 183.94 bushels per acre, up from 174.2 bpa last year and the 175.6 bpa three-year average. Soybean pod counts averaged 1,253, up from 1,132 last year and the 1,161 3YA.
The western leg found South Dakota corn yields averaged 157.4 bpa, up from 118.5 bpa last year and the 149.7 bpa 5YA; pod counts averaged 1,013, up from 871 last season but below 1,040 pods on average.
Corn condition ratings fell one point this week to 58% good/ excellent, up from 55% last year but below the 61% five-year average pace; corn doughing, denting, and maturity remained at of ahead of comparable metrics at 78%, 35%, and 4% (initially), respectively.
The forecast is the same as yesterday with hot dry weather setting into the Central US. The hottest temperature of the summer are developing this week. Temps stay hot out west for the duration of the model run over the next 15 days.
Reminder – Farm Safety Field Day is taking place tomorrow. Call today if you haven’t registered yet. Details are listed below.
Wednesday August 23
10:00am-2:00pm (registration starts at 9:30am)
Attoe Farms
W6790 Attoe Drive
Poynette, WI 53955
(Event will be held inside a cooled shed.)
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
August 21, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are up 3 in corn, up 22 in beans and down 5 in wheat to start the week on forecast for hot and dry weather as Pro Farmer begins their tour this week.
The 10-day forecast is hot and dry and extreme heat is forecast into the beginning of September with another ridge developing. This forecast has the soybean markets strengthening but has not spilled over into corn to the same degree. With an already tight balance sheet, very little wiggle room exists for the oilseed to lose production without prices having to ration further demand. This afternoon’s crop progress reports should show steady to improved ratings vs. last week, but how much will yield potential be dinged over the next two weeks of hot/dry weather?
This year’s Pro Farmer tour kicks off today and goes through Thursday. Last year the markets rallied during this tour as poor yields and trouble areas were identified. It will be interesting to see what they find when they step into the fields this year. In the last 10 years, the Pro Farmer yield estimates for corn were below the USDA 8 times by an average of 4.5 bushels.
Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of August 1 at 11.030 million head, or 97.7% of last year; that was below the average trade estimate at 98.3% of last year. July cattle placements came in at 91.7% of LY, below the 94.5% guess, with July marketings at 94.7% of LY, a tick below the 94.8% expectation.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 18, 2023
Good morning,
Markets higher to start the day with corn up 5, soybeans up 14 and wheat up 15.
Hot dry weather is forecast next week as Pro Farmer starts their tour of the Midwest. Pro Famer’s estimates of yield generally trend with the USDA but have missed yield considerably as they use average ear weights in their final formulation. Soybeans estimates are similar as it matters how large or small final seed sizes are.
The first container ship (which carried at least some grain) to leave Ukraine’s Odesa port post-Black Sea deal has safely reached the Istanbul strait today. Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced plans to restore a Black Sea grain corridor without Russia’s agreement, in addition to alternative routes that have been developed and aided by neighboring countries. Romania’s Prime Minister said he’s looking for 60% of Ukraine grain exports to move through Romania, though he said the doubling of grain capacity through the country is an “ambitious target”.
The forecast is hot and dry to finish out the month of August. The strongest dome this summer sets up next week and remains above average temperatures on the 15-day model run. The dome pushes rain up into Northern Canada and into the far western US.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 15, 2023
Good morning,
All commodities are lower to start the day with corn down 9, soybeans down 9 and wheat down 17.
Corn condition ratings rose two points this week to 59% good/ excellent, up from 57% last year but below the 63% five-year average figure; corn progress metrics remained roughly at or ahead of comparables at 96% silked, 65% doughed, and 18% denting.
Soybean ratings jumped five points to 59% g/ex, now up from 58% LY but behind the 61% 5YA; soybean blooming and pod-setting remained ahead of comparables at 94% and 78%, respectively.
Pro Farmer starts their tour of the Midwest next week, just as the hot weather spreads across the US. The markets seem to have some weather fatigue as the longer-term forecast has turned bullish and prices really have not. Prices historically bottom in August and head higher from here, but we need to see some change in demand to move them much higher.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 10, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 13 to start the day with a ridge in the forecast and continued conflict in Ukraine.
Ukraine announced a “humanitarian corridor” on Thursday to let dozens of cargo ships trapped in its ports since the outbreak of war last year sail into the Black Sea, where shipping routes are under scrutiny since Russia quit a deal to allow grain exports. At least initially, the corridor appears to apply to vessels such as container ships that have been stuck in Ukrainian ports since the Feb. 2022 invasion and were not covered by the deal that opened the ports for grain shipments last year.
The Ridge setting up in Texas pushing heat up North is causing a major shift in what the models look like this morning. The rain is getting pushed up into the Northeast, which is the opposite of yesterday. This makes sense and would verify that this ridge will develop.
Look for the markets to chop sideways today with the USDA crop report out tomorrow. Early estimates do not look for any big changes although the August report often has them.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
