August 2, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 5, soybeans are down 15 and wheat is down 11 to start the day with better weather and lack of concern over the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
Russia again struck Ukraine’s inland port on the Danube River this morning, damaging a grain silo on Ukraine’s main alternative route for grain exports without the Black Sea deal. The port is just across the river from NATO member Romania. Meanwhile, officials in the Kremlin today restated their position that Russia would return to the Black Sea deal “immediately” when their “interests are upheld”, meaning all restrictions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports are cleared—including payments, logistics, and insurance.
The forecast maps have quite a bit of rain in them this morning. Very heavy rains to the West and the Southeast. Temps look to be normal over the next 10 days.
Markets were higher across the board initially last night but have since sold off. The weather forecast has the Funds convinced that we can achieve better than trendline yields in soybeans and that the corn crop is getting much better.
Producers should be cleaning up sales on any old crop corn and soybeans that they have left in the bins. With each day that passes, new crop harvest will be making its way north and demand is dwindling.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 31, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are sharply lower this morning with weekend rains that came in better than expected. Corn is down 16, soybeans down 37 and wheat is down 28 to start the day.
The weekend saw rains move across Northern Illinois and into Indiana and Ohio. More rains are forecast in the Central US this week. Temps back off and a more active weather pattern is developing.
Despite further escalation of the Russian attack on Ukraine’s grain export infrastructure, the market sees the current weather forecast as less threatening to production.
We should start to see some private yield estimates circulate this week ahead of the USDA’s August WASDE which will be released August 11th.
The extreme volatility looks to continue with better weather in the forecast. The Fund position was about even in corn to finish the week, which is a little longer than was being recorded. I am not sure where the market bottoms out, but if the funds decide to take a short position, they could move futures well below $5.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 26, 2023
Good morning,
The corn and wheat are weaker this morning with soybeans up slightly. Corn is currently down 20, wheat is down 50 and soybeans are up 1.
Corn and Wheat down due to lack of new attack on Ukraine ports. EU trying to produce a plan to ship Ukraine grain to EU. Putin announced they did not renew the Ukraine deal because it was not serving its purpose.
The European Union yesterday said they’d be willing to export “almost all” of Ukraine’s grains via “solidarity lanes”, as well as help cover costs; that would consist of road and rail connections through Romania, Poland, and Hungary. 60% of Ukrainian grain exports went through those routes during the Black Sea deal, with the other 40% via water. The E.U. Ag Commissioner said they could handle the entire four million tonnes per month shipped during the agreement.
The weather models are in some disagreement on the placement of rain as the heat moves in this week. The EU has good chances for Iowa while NOAA does not. Temperatures are supposed to remain elevated into the middle of August.
Today is a risk off day and a great reminder that rallies like we saw on Monday should be rewarded with sales as they will not be sustained.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 24, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are stronger this morning with corn up 25, soybeans up 21 and wheat up 57 on news out of Russia.
Russia destroyed Ukrainian grain warehouses on the Danube River in a drone attack on Monday, targeting a vital export route for Kyiv in an expanding air campaign that Moscow began last week after pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal.
Last week’s attacks mostly struck the sea ports of Odesa but Monday’s pre-dawn strikes hit infrastructure along the Danube, an export route whose importance has grown since the demise of the deal allowing Ukrainian grain transit via the Black Sea.
Hot dry weather will dominate the Central US this week during the key pollination period. Some rains fell this weekend in Northern Illinois and off into Northern Indiana and Ohio. Rains have been spotty as will be the forecast for this week. Hot weather holds into the 28th, before the ridge retrogrades southwest.
Crop ratings are expected to increase a point or two for both corn and soybeans while holding steady in spring wheat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
July 18, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are stronger to start the day with corn up 14, soybeans up 13 and wheat up 12.
Russia struck Ukrainian ports on Tuesday, a day after pulling out of a U.N.-backed deal to let Kyiv export grain, and Moscow claimed gains on the ground in an area where Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were going back on the offensive.
Russia said it hit fuel storage in Odesa and a plant making seaborne drones, as part of “mass revenge strikes” in retaliation for attacks by Ukraine that knocked out its road bridge to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. (Reuters)
Models show increases dryness across the most the central US this morning. The drought continues in Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas. Hot temperatures are on the way that will increase crop stress as we close out July.
Corn condition ratings rose another 2% this week to 57% good/excellent, still behind 64% last year and the 66% five-year average; corn silking and doughing remained ahead of comparable at 47% and 7%, respectively.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
