Good morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 7 and soybeans up 15.

A bearish USDA report and nice rains across IA, IL, WI and OH had the markets on its heels yesterday. We are seeing a slight technical bounce this morning, but with more rain forecasted for the next 7 days, this bounce may be short lived.

Yesterday’s report saw the USDA lower yield from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre. With the recent update in planted acres and the reduction in yield, we are still projected to have a 2023/24 carryout of 2.262 billion bushels. With exports and demand looking bleak through 2024, we could drop yield another 4 bushels per acre and still have stocks north of 2.0 billion.

The models show rain in much of the Midwest over the next 7 days.  Heavier rains are in the Southern and Eastern Regions.  A large storm developed yesterday over Iowa that ran into Northern Illinois.  Those were the best rain totals in Northern Illinois since April.  More activity is forecast this week before a ridge sets up around July 18^th.

Producers should be looking to get new crop sales on the books with any rallies in the markets. 2.0 plus Billion Bushel Carryout screams $4 corn!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed to start the day with corn down 4 and soybeans up 12.

Some rain moved through Iowa and Northern Illinois with coverage of up to an inch in areas.  The storms were swift as they moved through, not allowing a lot of time for accumulation.  Most of the storm activity is up in the Dakotas where it’s raining in the western half of both states. There are storms moving across IA and southern WI this morning and should hit our area by midday.

The USDA will release their July production numbers at 11am today. Below are the estimates for today’s report.

USDA 2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)

USDA 2023 Yield (bushels/acre)

USDA 2023 Production (billion bu)

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bu)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are higher to start the week with corn up 5 and soybeans up 28.

December corn is stabilizing around 5 dollars as prices are deep into crop insurance revenue territory.  Additional acres will be added on Wednesday, but yield is likely to come down from the record yield forecast by the USDA.

The forecast models had been adding rain into Iowa/Minnesota a few times last week, but not much has materialized.  Rain totals in the last 10 days for Illinois have been as much as 5-6 inches in areas.

Crop ratings are expected to increase by 1-3 percent in the good to excellent for corn and beans this afternoon.  Illinois did accumulate some heavy rain totals over the last 10 days, where Iowa/Minnesota were much lighter.

On Wednesday the USDA will have a chance to amend its Supply and Demand numbers in their July crop production report. We should see an increase in feeding and a cut in exports. Ethanol is due for a cut, but the USDA has fought revisions in that category most of the season. Historically the USDA has not adjusted yield in the July report but given the drought conditions we have experienced I would not be surprised to see an adjustment next week. An adjustment to 175-176 bushels per acre would be in line with what the trade is expecting. With the increase in planted acres this spring, we could drop yield to 168 bushels per acre and still see a 1.4-billion-bushel carryout next year.  Below are the early estimates for Wednesday.

USDA 2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)

USDA 2023 Yield (bushels/acre)

USDA 2023 Production (billion bu)

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bu)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 8 overnight as traders look to short the market heading into a weekend that is forecasted to be cooler and wetter.

The EU and US models may disagree a little bit on amounts, but both are very wet for the Central US this morning.  A string of thunderstorms is forecast to move through lower Iowa and Northern Illinois in the middle of next week.  A cold front out West is activating the weather pattern to wetter.  The confidence this these forecasts look high to me.

Some crops have been helped this past 10 days as rain arrived in the Midwest.  What would have been headed for a disaster has been salvaged now in many areas.  A record yield is off the table, but the question will remain, just how much smaller the crop is.  The absence of heat has helped hold things together awaiting timely rains.  The futures have not held together very well in corn futures as prices are at summer lows trading both sides of 5 dollars in December corn.

There are still a lot of things to be determined about the size of this year’s crop, but I believe we are trading a 173-175 range yield at the present time. Unless demand picks up next year, we could drop yield to 168 and still have the same carryout as this year. So, there is currently no reason for this market to trade higher until demand comes back.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans up 18.

Corn condition ratings rebounded by one point this week to 51% good/excellent, still below 64% last year and the 66% five-year average; corn silking doubled to 8%, in line with 7% LY and the 9% 5YA pace.

Soybean conditions fell by 1% to 50% g/ex, down from 63% LY and the 64% 5YA; soybean blooming and pod-setting were reported above their comparable at 24% and 4%, respectively.

NOAA and the EU model look similar this morning, both showing rain in the South and little in the Central US and North.  Temperatures will be on the cool side. For all the rain that was supposed to develop, its sure seems like it was on the light side compared to forecasts.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

ggard@didioninc.com

920-348-6844