July 24, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are stronger this morning with corn up 25, soybeans up 21 and wheat up 57 on news out of Russia.
Russia destroyed Ukrainian grain warehouses on the Danube River in a drone attack on Monday, targeting a vital export route for Kyiv in an expanding air campaign that Moscow began last week after pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal.
Last week’s attacks mostly struck the sea ports of Odesa but Monday’s pre-dawn strikes hit infrastructure along the Danube, an export route whose importance has grown since the demise of the deal allowing Ukrainian grain transit via the Black Sea.
Hot dry weather will dominate the Central US this week during the key pollination period. Some rains fell this weekend in Northern Illinois and off into Northern Indiana and Ohio. Rains have been spotty as will be the forecast for this week. Hot weather holds into the 28th, before the ridge retrogrades southwest.
Crop ratings are expected to increase a point or two for both corn and soybeans while holding steady in spring wheat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
July 18, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are stronger to start the day with corn up 14, soybeans up 13 and wheat up 12.
Russia struck Ukrainian ports on Tuesday, a day after pulling out of a U.N.-backed deal to let Kyiv export grain, and Moscow claimed gains on the ground in an area where Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were going back on the offensive.
Russia said it hit fuel storage in Odesa and a plant making seaborne drones, as part of “mass revenge strikes” in retaliation for attacks by Ukraine that knocked out its road bridge to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. (Reuters)
Models show increases dryness across the most the central US this morning. The drought continues in Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas. Hot temperatures are on the way that will increase crop stress as we close out July.
Corn condition ratings rose another 2% this week to 57% good/excellent, still behind 64% last year and the 66% five-year average; corn silking and doughing remained ahead of comparable at 47% and 7%, respectively.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 13, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 7 and soybeans up 15.
A bearish USDA report and nice rains across IA, IL, WI and OH had the markets on its heels yesterday. We are seeing a slight technical bounce this morning, but with more rain forecasted for the next 7 days, this bounce may be short lived.
Yesterday’s report saw the USDA lower yield from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre. With the recent update in planted acres and the reduction in yield, we are still projected to have a 2023/24 carryout of 2.262 billion bushels. With exports and demand looking bleak through 2024, we could drop yield another 4 bushels per acre and still have stocks north of 2.0 billion.
The models show rain in much of the Midwest over the next 7 days. Heavier rains are in the Southern and Eastern Regions. A large storm developed yesterday over Iowa that ran into Northern Illinois. Those were the best rain totals in Northern Illinois since April. More activity is forecast this week before a ridge sets up around July 18th.
Producers should be looking to get new crop sales on the books with any rallies in the markets. 2.0 plus Billion Bushel Carryout screams $4 corn!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 12, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are mixed to start the day with corn down 4 and soybeans up 12.
Some rain moved through Iowa and Northern Illinois with coverage of up to an inch in areas. The storms were swift as they moved through, not allowing a lot of time for accumulation. Most of the storm activity is up in the Dakotas where it’s raining in the western half of both states. There are storms moving across IA and southern WI this morning and should hit our area by midday.
The USDA will release their July production numbers at 11am today. Below are the estimates for today’s report.
USDA 2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 1.402 | 1.420 | 1.452 |
Soybeans | .255 | .232 | .230 |
USDA 2023 Yield (bushels/acre)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 177.50 | 176.6 | 181.5 |
Soybeans | 52.0 | 51.4 | 52.0 |
USDA 2023 Production (billion bu)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 15.320 | 15.234 | 15.265 |
Soybeans | 4.30 | 4.253 | 4.510 |
USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bu)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 2.262 | 2.260 | 2.257 |
Soybeans | .300 | .199 | .350 |
Wheat | .592 | .569 | .562 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 10, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are higher to start the week with corn up 5 and soybeans up 28.
December corn is stabilizing around 5 dollars as prices are deep into crop insurance revenue territory. Additional acres will be added on Wednesday, but yield is likely to come down from the record yield forecast by the USDA.
The forecast models had been adding rain into Iowa/Minnesota a few times last week, but not much has materialized. Rain totals in the last 10 days for Illinois have been as much as 5-6 inches in areas.
Crop ratings are expected to increase by 1-3 percent in the good to excellent for corn and beans this afternoon. Illinois did accumulate some heavy rain totals over the last 10 days, where Iowa/Minnesota were much lighter.
On Wednesday the USDA will have a chance to amend its Supply and Demand numbers in their July crop production report. We should see an increase in feeding and a cut in exports. Ethanol is due for a cut, but the USDA has fought revisions in that category most of the season. Historically the USDA has not adjusted yield in the July report but given the drought conditions we have experienced I would not be surprised to see an adjustment next week. An adjustment to 175-176 bushels per acre would be in line with what the trade is expecting. With the increase in planted acres this spring, we could drop yield to 168 bushels per acre and still see a 1.4-billion-bushel carryout next year. Below are the early estimates for Wednesday.
USDA 2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 1.420 | 1.452 | |
Soybeans | .232 | .230 |
USDA 2023 Yield (bushels/acre)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 176.6 | 181.5 | |
Soybeans | 51.4 | 52.0 |
USDA 2023 Production (billion bu)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 15.234 | 15.265 | |
Soybeans | 4.253 | 4.510 |
USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bu)
USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
Corn | 2.260 | 2.257 | |
Soybeans | .199 | .350 | |
Wheat | .569 | .562 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844