Good morning,

Corn is up 7 and soybeans are up 47 to start the week.

Markets are higher following soybeans as the USDA reduced acres by 4 million last Friday.  Crop conditions are expected to be mixed this afternoon as rain has fallen in many of the drier areas of the Midwest.

Fridays USDA surprise did not come through stocks, which were reported to be slightly below the average trade guesses and opens the possibility for some minor downward revisions in old crop carry outs/new crop carry ins. Instead, the surprise came from acreage where planted corn acres were revised up more than 2 mln up to 94.1 mln, well above the average trade guess of 91.85 mln. Soybean acreage was slashed 4 mln down to 83.5 mln, well below the average trade guess of 97.67 mln. Nationally, between the two crops, we lost almost 2 mln planted acres vs. the March report. About 600k of those acres went to spring wheat and we saw a national uptick in planted hay acres of 1.35 mln. I guess you have to make hay while the sun shines… All together, we are looking at principal crop acreage is at 318.7 mln, the highest total since 2018.

Above normal rain is forecast by both the GFS and EU models this morning.  Storm systems will move through the Midwest every few days this week.  Temperatures will be cooler this week as a cold front has moved down from Canada.

You never know what the USDA will do, and Friday was a pretty big surprise.  Cutting 4 million acres of beans and adding 2 million acres to corn has driven the corn/bean spread to the widest I have ever seen.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 5, soybeans up 27 and wheat up 6 to start the day.

The corn market dropped into the open chart gap at 5.305 yesterday and was filled.  Prices traded a little bit below there and closed right on it.  Now the only open chart gaps are at 6.15 and 6.29.  The downside is limited as the market is coming into the bottom end of the range since May.  The market should move back up to the 5.50-5.70 range.

The GFS and EU model say rains will continue to move through the Midwest over the next 10 days.  There are supposed to be 3 storm events in the next week and a half producing up to 3-4 inches in the driest areas.  The storm yesterday had a lot of high wind and some hail with downed corn.  The rain totals were not as much as there were supposed to be, but I think that was going to be the case when you have a storm move that quickly.

USDA report out at 11am today. Expectations are listed below.

USDA June 1 Stocks (billion bushels)

USDA 2023 June Acreage (million acres)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 24, soybeans are down 25 and wheat is down 32 to start the day with just enough rainfall over the last couple days and forecasts for more to come! Even though the ratings dropped, there is just enough rain around in the forecast to drop the market.

Corn condition ratings fell by another five points this week to 50% good/excellent, down from 67% both last year and on average; corn silking was initially reported at 4% done.

Soybean ratings fell by 3% to 51% g/ex, down from 65% both LY and on average, with emergence and blooming ahead of their comparable metrics at 96% and 10%, respectively.

The GFS is wet this morning, adding rain to Illinois as well as most of the crop area in the central US.  The EU model is not quite as heavy on coverage in Illinois and with little coverage in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.  A ridge is expected to develop later this week and after it breaks down some rain will move across the US this weekend.

This seems like a lot to be down, but the GFS says it’s going to rain, and the Funds are dumping their longs.  We have a crop report on Friday that will also add to the volatility in the markets.  We had some issues in North Dakota with planting, so there may be some prevent plant, otherwise most all the corn acres went in. I can’t say that we won’t have more opportunities to market above the current levels, but producers have been sitting on their hands because they think its dry may have missed the boat. The markets rarely wait for the rain to fall before taking premium out of the markets. You must be proactive and market when opportunities are presented. Be prepared and get offers for old and new crop in with your buyers today! We have a crop report on Friday, and we are headed into the pivotal 4^th of July weekend.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets were mixed early this morning. Corn was higher overnight but opened 4 lower this morning. At the time of this writing, we are unchanged in corn and down 5 in soybeans.

There is some flip flopping of the models from wet on the Euro yesterday to dry on the Euro this morning.  The private forecaster that I watch says there will be a change coming at the end of the month as things look to turn slightly wetter. The markets were extremely overbought last night triggering obvious sell signals.

To get through the trendline the Funds had to go long corn and they did that last week.  We saw a major shift in position over a three-day period as traders went from short 50k contracts to long 25k.  Volatility is increasing as you saw by last night’s trade.  I’m not sure what happens today as the near-term models are mostly dry, but we’ve put a lot into price in a hurry.

Producers need to be making catch up sales on this rally if it stays up here.  There’s still plenty of time for weather to improve, but you have insurance and as producers you’re supposed to sell against that coverage.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

The markets are softer this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans down 7. Yesterday’s rally quickly faded as we moved through the day as rain fell in the upper Midwest.

Weather models have heavy rains the Western Plains and, in the South, leaving the Central US in a drier trend.  The placement of a dome in Canada moving East has pushed moisture around the edge of the dome.  The EU model shows better chances for rain in Illinois this morning that so far have not materialized.  Iowa and Minnesota look to remain dry.  Temps are still average at best lowering crop stress in dry areas.

Brazilian government supply agency Conab yesterday left their 2022/23 soybean production estimate at 155.7 MMT, up 24% from last year, with corn at 125.7 MMT, up from 125.5 MMT previously and up 11% year-over-year. Second-crop output rose from 96.1 to 96.3 MMT this month—that compares to 85.8 MMT in the 2021/22 cycle.

The EPA on Growth Energy will be granted a one-week delay in announcing Renewable Fuel Obligations until June 21st.  A presentation was given to Biden yesterday arguing for higher biofuel mandate proposals.

The market is at an impasse waiting to see further into June weather.  The markets are closed on Monday making a risky three-day weekend ahead.   Market volatility will remain heightened and trade aggressively on model changes.

Continue to make sales on rallies of both old and new crop corn. As I stated yesterday, weather rallies can end quicker than you can make a phone call, so you don’t want to hang out too long. With every day that passes, we are that much closer to new crop corn hitting the pipeline.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com