Good morning,

Markets are higher to start the week with corn up 5 and soybeans up 28.

December corn is stabilizing around 5 dollars as prices are deep into crop insurance revenue territory.  Additional acres will be added on Wednesday, but yield is likely to come down from the record yield forecast by the USDA.

The forecast models had been adding rain into Iowa/Minnesota a few times last week, but not much has materialized.  Rain totals in the last 10 days for Illinois have been as much as 5-6 inches in areas.

Crop ratings are expected to increase by 1-3 percent in the good to excellent for corn and beans this afternoon.  Illinois did accumulate some heavy rain totals over the last 10 days, where Iowa/Minnesota were much lighter.

On Wednesday the USDA will have a chance to amend its Supply and Demand numbers in their July crop production report. We should see an increase in feeding and a cut in exports. Ethanol is due for a cut, but the USDA has fought revisions in that category most of the season. Historically the USDA has not adjusted yield in the July report but given the drought conditions we have experienced I would not be surprised to see an adjustment next week. An adjustment to 175-176 bushels per acre would be in line with what the trade is expecting. With the increase in planted acres this spring, we could drop yield to 168 bushels per acre and still see a 1.4-billion-bushel carryout next year.  Below are the early estimates for Wednesday.

USDA 2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)

USDA 2023 Yield (bushels/acre)

USDA 2023 Production (billion bu)

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bu)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 8 overnight as traders look to short the market heading into a weekend that is forecasted to be cooler and wetter.

The EU and US models may disagree a little bit on amounts, but both are very wet for the Central US this morning.  A string of thunderstorms is forecast to move through lower Iowa and Northern Illinois in the middle of next week.  A cold front out West is activating the weather pattern to wetter.  The confidence this these forecasts look high to me.

Some crops have been helped this past 10 days as rain arrived in the Midwest.  What would have been headed for a disaster has been salvaged now in many areas.  A record yield is off the table, but the question will remain, just how much smaller the crop is.  The absence of heat has helped hold things together awaiting timely rains.  The futures have not held together very well in corn futures as prices are at summer lows trading both sides of 5 dollars in December corn.

There are still a lot of things to be determined about the size of this year’s crop, but I believe we are trading a 173-175 range yield at the present time. Unless demand picks up next year, we could drop yield to 168 and still have the same carryout as this year. So, there is currently no reason for this market to trade higher until demand comes back.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans up 18.

Corn condition ratings rebounded by one point this week to 51% good/excellent, still below 64% last year and the 66% five-year average; corn silking doubled to 8%, in line with 7% LY and the 9% 5YA pace.

Soybean conditions fell by 1% to 50% g/ex, down from 63% LY and the 64% 5YA; soybean blooming and pod-setting were reported above their comparable at 24% and 4%, respectively.

NOAA and the EU model look similar this morning, both showing rain in the South and little in the Central US and North.  Temperatures will be on the cool side. For all the rain that was supposed to develop, its sure seems like it was on the light side compared to forecasts.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

ggard@didioninc.com

920-348-6844

Good morning,

Corn is up 7 and soybeans are up 47 to start the week.

Markets are higher following soybeans as the USDA reduced acres by 4 million last Friday.  Crop conditions are expected to be mixed this afternoon as rain has fallen in many of the drier areas of the Midwest.

Fridays USDA surprise did not come through stocks, which were reported to be slightly below the average trade guesses and opens the possibility for some minor downward revisions in old crop carry outs/new crop carry ins. Instead, the surprise came from acreage where planted corn acres were revised up more than 2 mln up to 94.1 mln, well above the average trade guess of 91.85 mln. Soybean acreage was slashed 4 mln down to 83.5 mln, well below the average trade guess of 97.67 mln. Nationally, between the two crops, we lost almost 2 mln planted acres vs. the March report. About 600k of those acres went to spring wheat and we saw a national uptick in planted hay acres of 1.35 mln. I guess you have to make hay while the sun shines… All together, we are looking at principal crop acreage is at 318.7 mln, the highest total since 2018.

Above normal rain is forecast by both the GFS and EU models this morning.  Storm systems will move through the Midwest every few days this week.  Temperatures will be cooler this week as a cold front has moved down from Canada.

You never know what the USDA will do, and Friday was a pretty big surprise.  Cutting 4 million acres of beans and adding 2 million acres to corn has driven the corn/bean spread to the widest I have ever seen.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 5, soybeans up 27 and wheat up 6 to start the day.

The corn market dropped into the open chart gap at 5.305 yesterday and was filled.  Prices traded a little bit below there and closed right on it.  Now the only open chart gaps are at 6.15 and 6.29.  The downside is limited as the market is coming into the bottom end of the range since May.  The market should move back up to the 5.50-5.70 range.

The GFS and EU model say rains will continue to move through the Midwest over the next 10 days.  There are supposed to be 3 storm events in the next week and a half producing up to 3-4 inches in the driest areas.  The storm yesterday had a lot of high wind and some hail with downed corn.  The rain totals were not as much as there were supposed to be, but I think that was going to be the case when you have a storm move that quickly.

USDA report out at 11am today. Expectations are listed below.

USDA June 1 Stocks (billion bushels)

USDA 2023 June Acreage (million acres)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com