June 27, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 24, soybeans are down 25 and wheat is down 32 to start the day with just enough rainfall over the last couple days and forecasts for more to come! Even though the ratings dropped, there is just enough rain around in the forecast to drop the market.
Corn condition ratings fell by another five points this week to 50% good/excellent, down from 67% both last year and on average; corn silking was initially reported at 4% done.
Soybean ratings fell by 3% to 51% g/ex, down from 65% both LY and on average, with emergence and blooming ahead of their comparable metrics at 96% and 10%, respectively.
The GFS is wet this morning, adding rain to Illinois as well as most of the crop area in the central US. The EU model is not quite as heavy on coverage in Illinois and with little coverage in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. A ridge is expected to develop later this week and after it breaks down some rain will move across the US this weekend.
This seems like a lot to be down, but the GFS says it’s going to rain, and the Funds are dumping their longs. We have a crop report on Friday that will also add to the volatility in the markets. We had some issues in North Dakota with planting, so there may be some prevent plant, otherwise most all the corn acres went in. I can’t say that we won’t have more opportunities to market above the current levels, but producers have been sitting on their hands because they think its dry may have missed the boat. The markets rarely wait for the rain to fall before taking premium out of the markets. You must be proactive and market when opportunities are presented. Be prepared and get offers for old and new crop in with your buyers today! We have a crop report on Friday, and we are headed into the pivotal 4th of July weekend.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 20, 2023
Good morning,
Markets were mixed early this morning. Corn was higher overnight but opened 4 lower this morning. At the time of this writing, we are unchanged in corn and down 5 in soybeans.
There is some flip flopping of the models from wet on the Euro yesterday to dry on the Euro this morning. The private forecaster that I watch says there will be a change coming at the end of the month as things look to turn slightly wetter. The markets were extremely overbought last night triggering obvious sell signals.
To get through the trendline the Funds had to go long corn and they did that last week. We saw a major shift in position over a three-day period as traders went from short 50k contracts to long 25k. Volatility is increasing as you saw by last night’s trade. I’m not sure what happens today as the near-term models are mostly dry, but we’ve put a lot into price in a hurry.
Producers need to be making catch up sales on this rally if it stays up here. There’s still plenty of time for weather to improve, but you have insurance and as producers you’re supposed to sell against that coverage.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 14, 2023
Good morning,
The markets are softer this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans down 7. Yesterday’s rally quickly faded as we moved through the day as rain fell in the upper Midwest.
Weather models have heavy rains the Western Plains and, in the South, leaving the Central US in a drier trend. The placement of a dome in Canada moving East has pushed moisture around the edge of the dome. The EU model shows better chances for rain in Illinois this morning that so far have not materialized. Iowa and Minnesota look to remain dry. Temps are still average at best lowering crop stress in dry areas.
Brazilian government supply agency Conab yesterday left their 2022/23 soybean production estimate at 155.7 MMT, up 24% from last year, with corn at 125.7 MMT, up from 125.5 MMT previously and up 11% year-over-year. Second-crop output rose from 96.1 to 96.3 MMT this month—that compares to 85.8 MMT in the 2021/22 cycle.
The EPA on Growth Energy will be granted a one-week delay in announcing Renewable Fuel Obligations until June 21st. A presentation was given to Biden yesterday arguing for higher biofuel mandate proposals.
The market is at an impasse waiting to see further into June weather. The markets are closed on Monday making a risky three-day weekend ahead. Market volatility will remain heightened and trade aggressively on model changes.
Continue to make sales on rallies of both old and new crop corn. As I stated yesterday, weather rallies can end quicker than you can make a phone call, so you don’t want to hang out too long. With every day that passes, we are that much closer to new crop corn hitting the pipeline.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 13, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are firm this morning with old corn up 4, new corn up 7 and soybeans up 24.
Corn condition ratings fell by three points this week to 61% good/excellent, below 72% last year and 69% for the five-year average. Corn emergence rose from 85% to 93%, up from 87% both LY and on average.
Soybean ratings also lost 3% to 59% good/excellent, down from 70% both LY and on average, with plantings and emergence both ahead of comparable at 96% and 86%, respectively.
Rain has mostly been in the South and Southwest the last couple days. The forecast models have some rain moving into the Central US over the next week. Amounts and placement differ between the EU and GFS models. They both have rain, just heavier amounts either in the East or West, neither showing much in Iowa.
The is our weather rally, so you better pay attention. Premium will add or subtract based on weather models daily. A weather market has no memory and can keep going or end at any time. The Funds are still short, but I think after yesterday and today they may be out of the shorts.
Make sure you are actively selling during these rallies and that you have offers in with your buyers as things can change very quickly.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 2, 2023
Good morning,
Corn and wheat are weaker this morning with both trading 6-8 lower. Soybeans are currently 14 higher.
The markets are weaker as they wait to see more information on forecast models. Dry conditions persist in the Central US. Earlier this week the market was leveled on a chance of a change to wetter weather which so far has not developed.
The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed bipartisan legislation backed by President Joe Biden that lifts the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, averting what would have been a first-ever default.
The Senate voted 63-36 to approve the bill that had been passed on Wednesday by the House of Representatives, as lawmakers raced against the clock following months of partisan bickering between Democrats and Republicans. The Treasury Department had warned it would be unable to pay all its bills on June 5 if Congress failed to act by then.
A mixed trade is offered early this morning and there will be even more attention on the mid-day models. The Funds don’t believe dry weather is hurting the crop and they can be right provided the weather turns wetter in the middle of June and into July. We’ve seen some extreme weather in many areas of the World so nothing is guaranteed.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
