Good morning,

Grain markets are showing a little sympathy this morning after last week’s selloff. Corn is currently up 11 in old crop and 4 in new crop. Soybeans are up 17 and wheat is up 20.

Few changes were made on Friday to old crop stocks.  The bearish new crop balance sheet came in about 100 million bushels to the high side for corn and 30 million bushels for soybeans.  Believe it or not the first balance sheet in soybeans tends to be the highest of the year. Beans over time have tended to beat the USDA demand estimates.  Corn, however, is not the same as demand can be more erratic.  With crop losses in Argentina and lower production in the Ukraine, this is probably one of the years demand could perform better than the USDA expectations.   The USDA is also using a corn yield that is 5 bushels better than the record of 177, which is attainable, but needs close to ideal weather to achieve.

USDA 2022/23 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2023/24 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Rain was widespread across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend and continued in the southern Plains up into the central belt this morning.  US weather is still leaning on the wet side, amounts will be less than last week.  The Dakotas look drier this week with only small amounts of rain in the forecast.  Kansas is going to get rain, but it’s too late to help wheat at this point.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

All commodities are taking a hit this morning with corn down 12, soybeans down 18 and wheat down 11.

Corn planting progress came in at 49% complete this week, up from 26% last week, 21% last year, and the 42% five-year average; corn emergence doubled to 12%, up from 5% LY and the 11% 5YA. Soybean planting rose from 19% to 35% done, up from 11% LY and the 21% 5YA, with emergence there initially reported at 9%, above 3% LY and the 4% 5YA.

Reports out this morning that China has cancelled another 11 million bushels of old crop corn purchases. This is the third cancellation in the last 3 weeks which brings totals over 30 million bushels. China has more than 100 million bushels of old crop corn on the books, but traders are now wondering how much of this will also be cancelled in the coming weeks and months.

Chinese customs reported April soybean imports at 7.26 mmt below a year ago levels of 9 mmt.  January through April are up 7% at 30.29 mmt.  The downturn in imports suggests the world economy won’t be able to count much on China’s domestic engine of growth, and as the nation re-exports some of its imports, it also reinforces the extent of weakness in some of its major trading partner economies.

The Funds see ending stocks growing this year to 2 billion bushels which we will likely see on the USDA crop report on Friday.  New crop bean ending stocks are expected to move close to 300 million bushels as well.  The slowing Chinese economy, bank default risk and high interest rates a putting a lid on prices. I usually don’t suggest selling in a down market, but if you have old crop left to move it may be time. If you are less than 40% sold on new crop, I would suggest adding to your sales.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Old crop corn is up 1 while new crop corn is down 3 to start the day. Favorable weekend planting and a nice forecast are keeping pressure on the new crop markets. This afternoon planting progress should be a little better than 50% completed in corn and 35-40% in soybeans.  Winter wheat is expected to be 1-2 percent better in the ratings.

We will have the May WASDE report released on Friday which will include the USDA’s first official 2023/24, new crop, balance sheet estimates.  Typically, this report does not hold too much of a surprise as the demand ideas for the coming year were laid out as part of the February Ag Outlook Forum numbers. The supply side assumptions are mostly in place, as well, as they are likely to use the March Prospective Plantings report acreage estimates and the yield assumptions released in February. For old crop, the focus remains squarely on the demand side of the balance sheet, which has not been all that supportive with the recent Chinese cancellations of U.S. corn purchases and ethanol production continuing to run at overall disappointing levels.

Producers should be actively locking in old crop basis levels as they are very attractive and may start to fall off if demand continues to disappoint. New crop sales should be made to get approximately 40% or more of your fall bushels moved.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets have turned and are trading lower after yesterday’s nice rally. Corn is currently down 7 while soybeans are down 9 and wheat is down 7.

Yesterday’s reversal in the markets was a result of “attempted attacks” in Russia. Russia accused Ukraine yesterday of attempting to assassinate President Vladimir Putin in Moscow after two drones crashed into the Kremlin’s Senate Palace early in the morning, promising retaliation. No injuries or major damage were reported, and officials said Putin was not at the Kremlin at the time. Ukrainian officials denied the accusations while noting the statement provided Russia with a reason to escalate the conflict.

The markets are giving back some of the gains from yesterday, normally you like to see some follow-through after a key reversal.  Meeting will take place with Russia tomorrow about the grain corridor, which we will guess only stays open if Putin needs it open.
Weekly export sales came in at a negative 12.4 million bushels for corn. This compares to the 10-week average of 41.9 million. With last weeks cancellations of sales to China, this should not come as surprise. We are now 144 million bushels behind pace to meet the USDA’s projections for the year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with old corn up 2, new corn down 2 and soybeans up 3.

Corn planting progress rose from 14% to 26% this week, double last year’s pace and right in line with the five-year average; corn emergence doubled from 3% to 6%, up from 3% LY and 5% for the five-year average. Soybean planting jumped to 19%, up from 9% last week and 11% for the five-year average.

US weather presents the trade with enough pockets of dryness over the next ten days to allow normal planting pace. Even under a cool ECB outlook, the trade expects the ECB to proceed without delay. It’s the Dakotas that remain in question and more so North Dakota. Temperatures move to the above normal level in the 6–10-day period for this area and regular rains for the WCB.

Ukraine is reporting that negotiations over the “Grain Deal” will happen tomorrow with all parties involved, including Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United Nations. Ukraine expects its grain exports in the 2023-24 marketing year to be half of this current year’s shipments due to ongoing problems of shipping through the “safe corridor” and due to rising restrictions for moving grain west through Eastern Europe.

We may be close to a bottom in the short term, but there is more downside potential as planting proceeds and demand disappears.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com