Good morning,

Markets are higher off a forecast of lower rain totals for Argentina next week, plus crude oil is up significantly lending strength to corn and bean oil.  Corn is currently up 4 while soybeans are up 9.

Rain coverage and amounts are expected to be lighter for Argentina next week.  Forecast totals are for .12-1.25 inches and coverage of 50-60%.  Brazil will see scattered showers of .5-1.5 inches during the same period.  Some heat is forecast at the tail end of the models for Argentina and Southern Brazil.

Yesterday’s export sales report featured corn sales that came in towards the high side of expectations while soybeans sales fell towards to low end of expectations, a reversal of what we have become accustomed to this year. Regardless, corn sales remain solidly behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual estimate. Corn sales are 243 mbu (13%) behind the USDA’s projected pace. Cumulative soybean sales are 165 mbu (8%) ahead of pace. The USDA did not touch export demand for either commodity in this week’s WASDE report, but I think they will have to address the growing gaps in both corn and soybeans sometime this spring.

This market has and will continue to struggle to move higher with the lack of demand and a South American crop that is starting to come off. Aside from spring US planting delays, we will continue to trade sideways in the next couple months.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are unchanged to start the day with the USDA report behind us and South American weather, harvest data and size now the focus.

Yesterday’s USDA WASDE report was rather uneventful, as expected, with only limited U.S. balance sheet revisions being made and South American adjustments, mainly Argentina, continuing as further developments on the potential size of their corn and soybean crops are awaited. The most notable surprise of the report was the lack of a downward revision in the U.S. corn export projection, which was widely anticipated.

The only change to the U.S. corn balance sheet this month was a 25-million-bushel reduction in corn for ethanol usage to 5.250 billion bushels, now reflecting 76 million bushel reduction from last year’s 5.326 billion.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 South American Production (million tonnes)

USDA World 2022/23 Carryout (million tonnes)

Weekly exports came in at 45.7 million bushels for corn which is above the 10 week average of 31.0 million bushels and the second highest in the last 10 weeks. This week’s sales were made up of Japan, Unknown and Mexico. We are currently 243 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s projections for the year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

All commodities are quiet this morning ahead of the 11am WASDE report. Guesses for todays report are listed below.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 South American Production (million tonnes)

USDA World 2022/23 Carryout (million tonnes)

The USD Report is today at 11:00 central time.  Cuts to South American production are expected and not a lot else. This is normally not much of a market mover, and we expect the same today.

There was another pop-up thunderstorm in Argentina last night producing .1-.8 inches of rain in Southern Cordoba and Buenos Aries.  Conditions will be hot and dry for the next few days before rain sets in this weekend.  Rain will fall into next Wednesday with totals of .5-2.0 inches.  Temperatures will also be cooler into next week.  There is another period of dryness after this storm and then another move to wetter in the extended model.  The forecast has definitely changed as Argentina is seeing regular rains.

Brazil cut their official second-crop corn production estimate from 96.2 to 94.9 MMT due to a slow early soybean harvest and subsequent corn planting delays. Corn planting progress stands at 12%.

The USDA is expected to decrease the Argentina crop in soybeans down 3 mmt to 42.5 mmt and corn down 2-3 mmt at 48-49 mmt.  More than half of the corn and bean crop was planted late in Argentina this year, so improved rain could stabilize or increase yields.  Most are penciling in a loss of 10 plus mmts.

The rest of the changes by the USDA should be minimal.  My guess is that corn exports come in lower and most other categories stay about the same.  The forecast for rain and cooler temperatures will hold any rally back today in soybeans.  Meaning we can rally today but think it fails by the weekend as good rain coverage comes to Southern Brazil and Argentina.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

ggard@didioninc.com

920-348-6844

Good morning,

Markets are weaker this morning with corn down 4 and soybeans down 9.

Tomorrow morning the USDA will release its February WASDE report. Historically this in an uneventful report as traders watch South American harvest numbers and shift their attention to the US planting season and the March 31^st acreage and stocks report. US stocks are expected to increase due to lagging exports and lower ethanol usage of corn.

The USDA is expected to decrease the Argentina crop in soybeans and corn. More than half of the corn and bean crop was planted late in Argentina this year, so improved rain can stabilize to increase yields.

Past that, new-crop corn and soybean values are both strong heading into 2023, but that key SX/CZ ratio is still lingering near the bottom of its usual range at this point in the year; U.S. farmers will be itching to plant corn at $6 per bushel and with fertilizer prices now depressed. For now, the grain markets are mixed heading into the report, with soybeans generally acting as the buoy due to stronger usage and tighter ongoing stocks, ratcheting only slightly lower off recent move highs this month.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 South American Production (million tonnes)

USDA World 2022/23 Carryout (million tonnes)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Stronger markets to start the day. Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 6.

Weekly exports had another decent week with corn coming in at 35.8 million bushels and soybeans at 42.1 million bushels. Despite the decent numbers, corn is still 235 million bushels behind the USDA’s projections for this year.

Trader’s are expecting big things from China as their economy reopens for the first time in three years.  Additional demand for food and energy are believed to be the driving force.  Index funds have been buyers which has put crude oil at the top of the recent range.

A USDA attaché in Beijing said that China is set to import “a substantial amount” of Brazilian corn in calendar 2023, without giving an exact number; imports are priced competitively with local supplies, despite a strong 2022 harvest in the North China Plain. End users are mixing more corn in feed rations due to higher prices for wheat and sorghum.  China has only bought 3.7 mmts of US corn this year, down 70% from last year.  Brazil will have as much as 50 mmt of corn for export if crops sizes stay large.

Mexico’s Deputy Ag Minister yesterday said the country’s goal is to reduce yellow corn imports by 30-40% by 2024. Mexico buys 16 mmt of US yellow corn from US exporters.  Sometimes Mexico is the US’s largest export customer taking 600 plus million bushels.

Producers should take advantage of any small rallies to unload old crop corn. We need something bad to happen with weather in South America for corn to push above $7. I look for the markets to ease lower late today and tomorrow.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com