Good morning,

Markets are relatively quiet to start the day with corn down 5 and soybeans up 3. Traders will most likely wait for Wednesday’s report before adding or reducing their positions.

Estimates for Wednesday’s report or listed below.

US Production (Billion Bushels/bushels per acre)

US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

A majority of nearly 12,000 railroad maintenance workers yesterday voted to reject a labor plan suggested by President Biden; there are a dozen unions in total that will be voting on the deal or risk going on strike.  A new bargaining period has begun and will end November 19th.  Barge freight on the Illinois and Mississippi have soared on the low water levels.  Barge rates were in the 500% of tariff rate but are down between 2000 and 2500.  It’s a good time for the railroads to use leverage.

I would have 7 dollar sell orders in as I said last week and also some at 7.20-7.25 for the Crop Report tomorrow.  I think it’s another good rally, which can be built on again tomorrow with bullish input by the USDA.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 6 and soybeans are up 16 overnight as traders continue to position ahead of Wednesdays WASDE report and on news out of the Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces destroyed the only bridge connecting the previously annexed Crimea with the Russian mainland which angered President Putin and renewed concerns that the war is only escalating. This puts Black Sea exports in jeopardy as a key UKR chess piece and subsequently has the trade on edge to open the week.

Ukraine reported that 20 ships carrying grain had left the ports of Odesa over the weekend, bringing the total to almost 300 since the start of the joint exporting agreement that was signed on July 22.

The USDA will release their October production report on Wednesday. Traders are expecting a downward revision which is supporting the markets near term.

Estimates for Wednesday’s report or listed below.

US Production (Billion Bushels/bushels per acre)

US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

This afternoon’s harvest progress report should show good progress as weather was favorable for soybean and corn harvest across the Midwest. Temperatures will be warm early in the week before dropping to freeze levels again on Thursday night.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-3486844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are quiet to start the day with corn up 1 and soybeans down 3. Look for quiet trade today as we head into the weekend where harvest activity should be busy.

Next Tuesday’s USDA October Crop Production report revisions to the U.S. corn and soybean crops could have significant price ramifications if “surprises” are seen in either direction. With the historically tight corn and soybean balance sheets, heightened risk awareness heading into next week’s reports is paramount.

The USDA’s October 12 WASDE report could have/likely will have a two-fold fundamentally friendly impact on the 2022/23 U.S. corn balance sheet. Not only will USDA be lowering 2022/23 beginning stocks by 148 million bushels from last month as a result of the September 30 Grain Stocks report, but their current 13.944 billion bushel (172.5 bushel/acre) estimate of this year’s crop is likely to be lowered further, as well. Accordingly, with USDA’s 2022/23 U.S. corn ending stocks estimate already sitting near perceived minimum pipeline stocks of around 1.2 billion bushels, any reduction in supplies likely will prompt a comparable reduction in demand, as well.
So far, U.S. corn export sales are running at a rather slow pace with total commitments of only 521 million bushels vs 1.046 billion at this time last year, the fourth lowest of the last ten years as of late September and represent 23% of the USDA’s current 2.275 billion bushel export projection. With any additional cuts to production and carryout we will see prices tick higher which will result in less demand for US corn. Stocks may be tight, but high prices cure high prices!

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is currently down 2 and soybeans are up 5 to start the week. Corn initially opened 9 higher, but quickly sold off as physical traders took over the computer trade.

Friday’s stocks report came in bullish for corn and wheat, while bearish for beans.  Even though there were premiums for early harvested corn not enough was completed to comingle stocks.  There probably was some comingling of bean stocks in the south, but the lack of exports over the past 6 months also didn’t help.  Bean stocks grew by 30 million bushels.  The price action from Friday was pretty violent as beans were down 40 on the day, when many were looking for a bullish report.  Corn made a run at 7.00 December futures but ran out of gas as beans liquidated.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers is discussing output cuts of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), OPEC sources said, and voluntary cuts by individual members could come on top of that, making it the largest cut since 2020.  The meeting will take place on Oct. 5 against a backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC+ producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production.  This has crude oil up over 350 dollars a barrel this morning.

A rally in crude oil should bode well for corn but may not last long. I would recommend having offers in place for fall sales that need to be made. $6.50 with a top of $7.00 is my guess today. There is a lot of bearish news on the export side that is going to keep a lid on the markets.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

The grain markets are quiet to start the day with corn up 3 and soybeans up 2.

We will have the USDA September stocks report on Friday.  This report has caused some volatility over the years in the finding and losing of bushels.  Corn has been the big mover with additions of 400-500 million bushels a couple times in the past.  Sometimes you get co-mingling of old and new crop stocks as well, early harvest tends to boost carryout.  Traders will probably not want to be too long or short for this report.  The Average Trade Guess is 1.512 for corn, .242 for beans and 1.776 for wheat.  It may not seem realistic to have 1.500 billion bushels of corn left when prices were being paid up above 8 dollars a few weeks ago but I believe that is due to the physical location of the stocks. The west and southwest were short last year and will be again this year. The north and east had good crops last year and will likely follow with another good crop this year. Logistical restrictions and costs will keep things tight in the west.

I believe the recession is going to keep things from getting too wild this next year. The funds would need a lot more money to build the long positions they held last year. Last year they were long over 400,000 corn and 260,000 soybean contracts. I don’t see that happening this year. They are currently long 215,000 corn and 78,000 soybeans and that might be as much as they can do unless the government changes on their interest rates.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com