Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 6, soybeans down 20 and wheat up 38.

60 Minutes had an interview with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy last night. The Ukraine is not going to give up or concede any territory to the Russian, but he badly wants this to be over.  He says they are going to need help and not just in weapons.  A no-fly zone would go a long way, but he is going to run out of people to fight.  Money and weapons will not win this war and that’s the aid the Ukraine has gotten to this point.  The Western World is afraid that standing up to Russia will cause WWIII.  Russia is mounting up more troops and even recruiting older people to add to what they believe will be an even longer retracted war.

Ukraine’s grain traders’ union said the country is only able to export 600k tonnes of grains and oilseeds at this point, but “may increase capacity” to 2 MMT; that compares to 6 MMT per month pre-war. In March, the country only exported 300k tonnes combined. They see 2021/22 wheat exports at 10 MMT with corn at 20 MMT, down from 19 MMT and 23 MMT estimated by the USDA. They see 2022 wheat output at 18.2 MMT, down from 30.3 MMT in 2021, with corn at 23.1 MMT, compared with 37.6 MMT LY.
NASS will report winter wheat conditions this afternoon. Look for ratings to fall again for the hard wheat by 1-2% down to 28-29% good to excellent.  Dry conditions persist in the hard wheat growing region further deteriorating the crop.  Corn planting should be 4-5% complete and Spring wheat should be 5-6%.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are higher to start the day with corn up 5 and soybeans up 15.

The USDA will release their April WASDE at 11am today. Estimates are listed below.

USDA Ending Stocks (million bu)

For Friday’s USDA Report the trade is looking for reduced stocks in US carryout for both corn and beans.  Export sales are strong and with the Ukraine and Russia out of the market, most think that more will flow to the US.  Switches from China out of the Ukraine could amount to an increase in US purchases at a time when there would usually be almost none as South America takes over Chinese business.

European Union nations have frozen some 29.5 billion euros ($32.1 billion) in assets linked to Russian and Belarusian individuals and entities since the bloc adopted its first sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The frozen assets include boats, helicopters, real estate and artwork valued at almost 6.7 billion euros. Additionally, the EU has blocked approximately 196 billion euros worth of transactions, it said.

Japan will ban imports of Russian coal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, adding to pressure on Moscow after the EU announced its own halt to the fuel.

The coal plan signals a policy reversal for Japan, which had previously drawn a line at cutting energy ties to Russia because of its heavy dependence on fuel imports. Russian coal imports make up about 13% of Japan’s power-generating supply and are also used in steel-making and the cement industry.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed to start the day with corn down 4 and soybeans up 20.

Ukraine renewed a call on Thursday for financial sanctions crippling enough to force Moscow to end the war and its officials rushed to evacuate civilians from cities and towns in the east and south pounded by Russian artillery and missiles.  The democratic world must stop buying Russian oil and cut off Russian banks from the international finance system, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, adding that economic concerns should not come above punishment for civilian killings that the West condemns as war crimes.

Tomorrows USDA Report has traders looking for reduced stocks in US carryout for both corn and beans.  Export sales are strong and with the Ukraine and Russia out of the market, most think that more will flow to the US.  Switches from China out of the Ukraine could amount to an increase in US purchases at a time when there would usually be almost none as South America takes over Chinese business.

South American crops are expected to shrink a little as well.  The USDA probably won’t revise the crop size very much lower, and we did have late season rain move into Argentina and Southern Brazil.  How much help it did, is anyone’s guess?
December corn has popped through 7 dollars on the CBOT this week and stopped.  The stochastics show overbought conditions and a divergence into the high says traders should be selling off.  The crop report could produce a higher high, which would make sales even more likely tomorrow.  If you want to sell any corn, today and tomorrow would be good days to sell some 7-dollar corn. Old crop futures have been trading around 7.50 for months, so that’s probably the most upside you would see against new crop futures.  I just don’t know how much higher prices really need to go, if at all.  Remember how hard it was to get to these prices and what it took to get here. Selling off from these levels is going to be a lot easier.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 10 and soybeans are up 14 to start the week.

The top stories from the weekend are all about the Russian/Ukraine war.  Russia maintained gas flows through key pipeline routes into Europe on Monday, despite uncertainty over payment terms and as European leaders called for more sanctions against Moscow after war crimes allegations in Ukraine.
Global outrage spread on Monday at civilian killings in north Ukraine, including evidence of bound bodies shot at close range and a mass grave found in areas retaken from Russian troops, as fighting raged on in the country’s south and east.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that the West would impose a new package of sanctions on Russia over the killing of civilians in Bucha and other Ukrainian cities, but he said that was not enough of a punishment.

The overnight markets were up due to the shelling and attack of the primary grain port of Odessa.  This port is the most important one in the Ukraine and handles most of their export grain.  To cripple this port will set rebuilding in Ukraine back a long time.  A capture of this port would be devastating.
Ukraine’s new ag minister raised his estimated total grain (corn, cereals, sugar beet, sunflower, etc.) planted area expectations to 33.1 million acres vs. the previous ag ministers estimate of 17.3 million acres. This compares to 41.8 million acres last year. No breakdown by commodity or reasoning for this higher acreage was provided.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets were quiet overnight after yesterday’s action following the USDA report. Corn was down 2 in old crop and up 2 in new crop overnight.

USDA 2022 Planting Intentions (million acres)

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

Yesterday’s USDA Plantings report was clearly bullish for the corn market and bearish for soybeans, while being neutral for wheat. The quarterly Grain Stocks report, in a pleasant development was mostly a non-event for corn, wheat and soybeans as no major surprises were seen. USDA estimated 2022/23 U.S. corn planted area at 89.490 million acres, down nearly 3.9 million acres from last year’s 93.357 million, 2.5 million acres less than average market expectations heading into the report of 92.0 million and would be the lowest in four years – certainly a difficult acceptance with corn prices at decade-high levels and insurance guarantees near record high for the coming year’s crop.

We could see deviations in final acreage numbers from March estimates as has been the case in recent history. Most of yesterday’s survey numbers were taken prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine which have resulted in a new crop rally that has certainly bought acres. In the last 10 years we have added acres 8 times from the March to June planting reports.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com