Daily Insights

March 16, 2020

Good morning,

Markets are weaker this morning across the board. Corn and wheat are taking the brunt of the selloff as they trade 22 and 85 lower.

Premiums are being taken out of the markets today as traders analyze more repots that the Russian invasion may not last as long as expected. Whether the comments about Russia only being able to sustain its invasion 2 more weeks are real or not, the market is taking a breather. Economic constraints that have been put on Russia are leading the way. They will have no money to fight a war, and the government will head to default, then real chaos will ensue.

For all that has happened in the last two weeks, corn and bean prices are mostly the same.  Crude oil and wheat had huge rallies and immediately gave it all back.  Governments of the World do not want high energy or food prices, so as producers know these prices will always be transitory.  Things are being done here that will have consequences.

The highs may or may not be in, but producers are still able to lock in profitable levels on old and new crop corn and soybeans and should look to add coverage based on percent sold.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

March 14, 2022

Good morning

Mixed markets to start the week with corn down 13 and soybeans up 10.

The big headline this morning is that Ukraine said it had begun “hard” talks on a ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees with Russia on Monday, despite the fatal shelling of a residential building in Kyiv.

Both sides reported rare progress at the weekend after earlier rounds have primarily focused on ceasefires to get aid to towns and cities under siege by Russian forces and evacuate civilians; those truces have frequently failed.

The other major news story is about China. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan plans to meet China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday and will stress the economic penalties Beijing will face if it helps Russia in its war in Ukraine, U.S. officials say.  Sullivan will warn of the isolation China could face globally if it continued to support Russia, one U.S. official said, without providing details.

On Sunday U.S. officials told Reuters Russia had asked China for military equipment after its invasion, sparking concern within the Biden administration that Beijing might undermine Western efforts to aid Ukraine by helping to strengthen Moscow’s military. (Reuters)

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister on Saturday said the country would start planting spring grains in the “coming days”, and that they have enough grain in local stockpiles to ensure the population has enough bread.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

Ggard@didioninc.com

 

March 9, 2022

Good morning,

Markets are mixed again this morning with corn down 8 and soybeans up 8.

Traders will have something besides the Russia – Ukraine war to trade for at least a little bit today as the USDA releases their March WASDE at 11am. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

US Ending Stocks (million bushels)

USDA March Average Est. USDA February Last Year
Corn 1.440 1.455 1.540 1.235
Soybeans .285 .273 .325 .278
Wheat .653 .627 .648 .845

USDA 2021/22 World Crop Production (million tonnes)

USDA March Average Est. USDA February Last Year
Brazil
   Corn 114.0 112.7 114.0 87.0
   Soybeans 127.0 128.1 134.0 138.0
Argentina
    Corn 53.0 51.6 54.0 51.5
    Soybeans 43.5 43.1 45.0 46.2

USDA 2021/22 World Ending Stocks (million tonnes)

USDA March Average Est. USDA February Last Year
Corn 300.97 299.6 302.2 292.1
Soybeans 89.96 88.6 92.8 100.4
Wheat 281.51 277.4 278.2 289.9

 

Russia’s war on Ukraine has commodity markets in disarray as multiple industries attempt to assess potential trade flow shifts worldwide. Since we are in the early stages of these developments, I expect the USDA to take a conservative approach to their ideas related to U.S. grain/oilseed balances, but clearly the potential exists for considerable shifting of global demand to U.S. supplies in the weeks, months and possibly years to come depending on how the situation in the Black Sea region plays out.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.co

March 8, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets are mixed to open the morning with corn down 5, wheat down 55 and soybeans are up 19.

US politicians and energy companies are wanting a ban for Russian Crude oil.  NATO members are considering an embargo against Russia.  The Russian Prime Minister says a ban could put crude oil above 300 dollars per barrel. Oil is trading $7-8/barrel higher this morning.

We have a USDA report out on Wednesday.  Carryout in corn, beans and wheat are expected to be lowered for the US.  South American production is expected to be down as well.  Conab will release their report on Thursday.  Conab is expected to drop combined production in South America 8-10 mmt.

Have a safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

February 28, 2022

Good morning,

Markets are sharply higher this morning with corn up 30 and soybeans up 65. Friday, the market sold off hard at the lack of teeth in the sanctions put against Russia.  Today is a different day, and a different feeling.

Ceasefire talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials began on the Belarusian border on Monday as Russia faced deepening economic isolation four days after invading Ukraine.  It was not clear whether any progress could be achieved after Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear-armed units on high alert on Sunday.

The Western-led response to the invasion has been emphatic, with sanctions that effectively cut off Moscow’s major financial institutions from Western markets. Russia’s ruble currency plunged 30% against the dollar on Monday. Countries also stepped-up weapons supplies to Ukraine.
World corn and wheat trade will be disrupted, as will farming in the Ukraine.  Infrastructure break downs and port problems will plague them for months.

 

Limit higher and lower moves appear to be the norm right now, but at some point this settles down and fundamentals will come back into play. Be careful not to get too complacent with these elevated prices as they could turn on us quickly.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com