Good morning,

Markets were quiet overnight after yesterday’s action following the USDA report. Corn was down 2 in old crop and up 2 in new crop overnight.

USDA 2022 Planting Intentions (million acres)

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

Yesterday’s USDA Plantings report was clearly bullish for the corn market and bearish for soybeans, while being neutral for wheat. The quarterly Grain Stocks report, in a pleasant development was mostly a non-event for corn, wheat and soybeans as no major surprises were seen. USDA estimated 2022/23 U.S. corn planted area at 89.490 million acres, down nearly 3.9 million acres from last year’s 93.357 million, 2.5 million acres less than average market expectations heading into the report of 92.0 million and would be the lowest in four years – certainly a difficult acceptance with corn prices at decade-high levels and insurance guarantees near record high for the coming year’s crop.

We could see deviations in final acreage numbers from March estimates as has been the case in recent history. Most of yesterday’s survey numbers were taken prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine which have resulted in a new crop rally that has certainly bought acres. In the last 10 years we have added acres 8 times from the March to June planting reports.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Softer markets to open the week with corn down 10 and soybeans down 20.

Ukraine and Russia were preparing on Monday for the first face-to-face peace talks in more than two weeks, with Kyiv insisting it would make no concessions on Ukraine’s territorial integrity as battlefield momentum has shifted in its favor.  Ukrainian officials have repeatedly suggested in recent weeks that they believe Russia could now be more willing to compromise, as any hope Moscow may have held of imposing a new government on Kyiv slipped away in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance and heavy Russian losses.

China’s financial hub of Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown of its 26 million residents on Monday, closing bridges and tunnels, and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging COVID-19 cases.  Though still low by global standards, Shanghai recorded a record 3,450 asymptomatic COVID cases on Sunday, accounting for nearly 70% of the nationwide total, along with 50 symptomatic cases.

Private analyst expect Thursday’s Prospective Plantings report to show corn plantings at 92.001 million acres this season. That would be more than a million acres down from 2021 plantings of 93.357 million acres, if realized. Individual trade guesses ranged between 93.500 million and 89.700 million acres.  Analysts expect USDA to show 2022 soybean plantings at 88.727 million acres. That would be well above 2021 plantings of 87.195 million acres, if realized. Trade estimates showed a fairly broad spread, meantime, with guesses ranging from 86.000 million acres all the way up to 92.208 million acres.  All-wheat plantings at 47.771 million acres. That would be more than a million acres above last season’s tally of 46.703 million acres, if realized. The total is comprised of an estimated 34.382 million acres of winter wheat, plus another 11.801 million acres of spring wheat.

Producers should talk to their buyers and get sales locked in and firm offers in place for old and new crop corn ahead of Thursdays report. Limit higher and lower moves is not uncommon on this report especially given the other market movers we are dealing with this year.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are weaker this morning across the board. Corn and wheat are taking the brunt of the selloff as they trade 22 and 85 lower.

Premiums are being taken out of the markets today as traders analyze more repots that the Russian invasion may not last as long as expected. Whether the comments about Russia only being able to sustain its invasion 2 more weeks are real or not, the market is taking a breather. Economic constraints that have been put on Russia are leading the way. They will have no money to fight a war, and the government will head to default, then real chaos will ensue.

For all that has happened in the last two weeks, corn and bean prices are mostly the same.  Crude oil and wheat had huge rallies and immediately gave it all back.  Governments of the World do not want high energy or food prices, so as producers know these prices will always be transitory.  Things are being done here that will have consequences.

The highs may or may not be in, but producers are still able to lock in profitable levels on old and new crop corn and soybeans and should look to add coverage based on percent sold.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning

Mixed markets to start the week with corn down 13 and soybeans up 10.

The big headline this morning is that Ukraine said it had begun “hard” talks on a ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees with Russia on Monday, despite the fatal shelling of a residential building in Kyiv.

Both sides reported rare progress at the weekend after earlier rounds have primarily focused on ceasefires to get aid to towns and cities under siege by Russian forces and evacuate civilians; those truces have frequently failed.

The other major news story is about China. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan plans to meet China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday and will stress the economic penalties Beijing will face if it helps Russia in its war in Ukraine, U.S. officials say.  Sullivan will warn of the isolation China could face globally if it continued to support Russia, one U.S. official said, without providing details.

On Sunday U.S. officials told Reuters Russia had asked China for military equipment after its invasion, sparking concern within the Biden administration that Beijing might undermine Western efforts to aid Ukraine by helping to strengthen Moscow’s military. (Reuters)

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister on Saturday said the country would start planting spring grains in the “coming days”, and that they have enough grain in local stockpiles to ensure the population has enough bread.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

Ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed again this morning with corn down 8 and soybeans up 8.

Traders will have something besides the Russia – Ukraine war to trade for at least a little bit today as the USDA releases their March WASDE at 11am. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

US Ending Stocks (million bushels)

USDA 2021/22 World Crop Production (million tonnes)

USDA 2021/22 World Ending Stocks (million tonnes)

Russia’s war on Ukraine has commodity markets in disarray as multiple industries attempt to assess potential trade flow shifts worldwide. Since we are in the early stages of these developments, I expect the USDA to take a conservative approach to their ideas related to U.S. grain/oilseed balances, but clearly the potential exists for considerable shifting of global demand to U.S. supplies in the weeks, months and possibly years to come depending on how the situation in the Black Sea region plays out.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.co