Good morning,

Markets opened higher this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 20 as traders add premium to the markets with hot and dry forecasts for Southern Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks.

Soybean crops in Parana, one of Brazil’s largest-producing states, were rated lower for a third straight week due to hot, dry weather, according to figures on the state’s rural economics agency website.  57% of crops were rated good on Dec. 20, down from 71% a week earlier and 78% a year ago,13% of crops rated poor vs 6% in the previous report.  71% of Parana’s soy are flowering or at grain filling stages, during which it is more susceptible to drought losses.

The forecast for South American weather is a little different from yesterday with very wet weather in North and Eastern Brazil, 2-12 inches.  Southern Brazil and Argentina have moved into a bone-dry weather pattern.  The chance of a change in weather on the longer-term map has vanished this morning, showing a continuation of the doom out at least 15 days.  The hot air mass looked like it might retrograde, but this morning it looks more intense.  This a very bullish weather pattern.  You will see the intense heat of 90’s-100’s in the bottom map for South America.

The funds are driving the prices higher based on weather and that could continue for the next few days. Once the weather forecast changes, and it will, things will drop back off to last weeks levels. I would advise producers to take advantage of this late December rally to get some old and new crop sales on the books. I would also advise putting offers in above the market with your buyers. Some of these rally’s change quickly with new forecasts being released and you don’t want to miss out.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets opened mixed this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans up 6.

We are seeing some strength/support in the bean markets with weather concerns in southern Brazil and Argentina as they have limited if any rainfall over the next two weeks. Rumors of Argentina limiting export for corn continue to be discussed by their government. Roughly 10% of Argentina’s crop is stressed with 86-87% of the corn and soybean crop rated in the Good/Excellent category. The area under stress is expected to expand to at least 40% in the next two weeks in Argentina with no rain.

March futures continue to push the $5.95 level but so far have failed to close above it. We have been in a slight upward trend as the March futures have had a higher close in 9 of the last 13 trading sessions.

Spreads on the CBOT continue to disappear as the funds continue to buy the front months due to volume and liquidity. We have also seen basis levels widen over the past several weeks well into the summer months as end users continue to get covered up in the front months. Several end users across the Midwest have pulled bids until May/June timeframe as producers lock in sales.

I do not look for the markets to do a lot this week with them being closed on Friday and limited participants as the week rolls along due to holiday travel.

Reminder that there will be no markets on Friday December 24^th.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 7 to start this Friday off.

In yesterday’s Supply and Demand Report, the USDA made no adjustments for corn and beans, while they increased the wheat carryout by 20 million bushels. They might as well have taken this one off as they hardly did anything anyway.

A Reuters report cited “trade sources” saying China has made large purchases of feed grains from Ukraine, France, and Australia in the past week; French wheat purchases totaled 600k mt for Jan-March, while barley purchases were estimated at 14 vessels combined from France and Ukraine. China also reportedly bought ten or more cargoes of corn from Ukraine for Jan/April, with some estimating those purchases ranging up to a million tonnes.  China has bought over 1.25 mmt of Aussie wheat in the last two weeks.

$5.50-$6 corn is going to continue to make it difficult for the US to compete in the Chinese export market. We are at a disadvantage logistically to both the Ukraine and South America on top of these current price levels. Our export business is going to be reliant on Canada and Mexico for the majority of the year. Canada is estimated to be more than 50% covered on what they need to buy so the story on this market may die quicker than we hope.

I would advise producers to get sales and firm offers on the books with end users ASAP. We are coming off the second largest harvest on record and do not expect to see the demand pop up like last year. There may be room to move slightly higher, but unlike 2021 we are starting off at $5.90-$6.00 cbot levels compared to $4 last year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are all over the board this morning with traders moving ahead of the 11am report. Corn is currently up 3 and soybeans are down 6.

The USDA Crop Report is out today at 11:00 Central.  Only minor adjustments are expected as this report has little bearing on the markets.  South American production doesn’t move very far this early and those crop sizes are expected to be unchanged.  Traders are looking for a small reduction in bean and wheat exports, with an increase in the corn grind from ethanol.
Total U.S. ethanol fuel production rebounded to 1.090 million barrels per day on the seven days ending December 3rd, up from 1.035 mln bpd the week prior, and 991k bpd on the comparable week last year. Cumulative output since Sept 1 continues to rise, now up to an average of 1.023 mln bpd; if that number keeps up with previous seasons (and ‘19/20 pre-pandemic) to hit even 1.040 mln bpd by the end of Aug, that would indicate corn use for ethanol around the 5.5 bln bu mark—250 million bu above the current USDA est.
Here are todays trade estimates:

USDA 2021/22 US Grain Ending Stocks (million bu)

USDA 2021/22 World Grain Ending Stocks(million tonnes)

Check back after 11am for updated numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com