Good morning

Mixed markets to start the week with corn down 13 and soybeans up 10.

The big headline this morning is that Ukraine said it had begun “hard” talks on a ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees with Russia on Monday, despite the fatal shelling of a residential building in Kyiv.

Both sides reported rare progress at the weekend after earlier rounds have primarily focused on ceasefires to get aid to towns and cities under siege by Russian forces and evacuate civilians; those truces have frequently failed.

The other major news story is about China. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan plans to meet China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday and will stress the economic penalties Beijing will face if it helps Russia in its war in Ukraine, U.S. officials say.  Sullivan will warn of the isolation China could face globally if it continued to support Russia, one U.S. official said, without providing details.

On Sunday U.S. officials told Reuters Russia had asked China for military equipment after its invasion, sparking concern within the Biden administration that Beijing might undermine Western efforts to aid Ukraine by helping to strengthen Moscow’s military. (Reuters)

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister on Saturday said the country would start planting spring grains in the “coming days”, and that they have enough grain in local stockpiles to ensure the population has enough bread.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

Ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed again this morning with corn down 8 and soybeans up 8.

Traders will have something besides the Russia – Ukraine war to trade for at least a little bit today as the USDA releases their March WASDE at 11am. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

US Ending Stocks (million bushels)

USDA 2021/22 World Crop Production (million tonnes)

USDA 2021/22 World Ending Stocks (million tonnes)

Russia’s war on Ukraine has commodity markets in disarray as multiple industries attempt to assess potential trade flow shifts worldwide. Since we are in the early stages of these developments, I expect the USDA to take a conservative approach to their ideas related to U.S. grain/oilseed balances, but clearly the potential exists for considerable shifting of global demand to U.S. supplies in the weeks, months and possibly years to come depending on how the situation in the Black Sea region plays out.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.co

Good morning,

Markets are mixed to open the morning with corn down 5, wheat down 55 and soybeans are up 19.

US politicians and energy companies are wanting a ban for Russian Crude oil.  NATO members are considering an embargo against Russia.  The Russian Prime Minister says a ban could put crude oil above 300 dollars per barrel. Oil is trading $7-8/barrel higher this morning.

We have a USDA report out on Wednesday.  Carryout in corn, beans and wheat are expected to be lowered for the US.  South American production is expected to be down as well.  Conab will release their report on Thursday.  Conab is expected to drop combined production in South America 8-10 mmt.

Have a safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are sharply higher this morning with corn up 30 and soybeans up 65. Friday, the market sold off hard at the lack of teeth in the sanctions put against Russia.  Today is a different day, and a different feeling.

Ceasefire talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials began on the Belarusian border on Monday as Russia faced deepening economic isolation four days after invading Ukraine.  It was not clear whether any progress could be achieved after Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear-armed units on high alert on Sunday.

The Western-led response to the invasion has been emphatic, with sanctions that effectively cut off Moscow’s major financial institutions from Western markets. Russia’s ruble currency plunged 30% against the dollar on Monday. Countries also stepped-up weapons supplies to Ukraine.
World corn and wheat trade will be disrupted, as will farming in the Ukraine.  Infrastructure break downs and port problems will plague them for months.

Limit higher and lower moves appear to be the norm right now, but at some point this settles down and fundamentals will come back into play. Be careful not to get too complacent with these elevated prices as they could turn on us quickly.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are stronger to open the day with corn up 4 nearby and 1 for new crop while soybeans are up 7 across the board.

Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian rebels reported increased shelling in eastern Ukraine for a second straight day on Friday, an escalation that Washington and other Western allies say could form part of a Russian pretext to invade.  A diplomatic source with years of direct experience of the conflict described the shelling over the past two days as the most intense along the frontline in eastern Ukraine since major combat there ended with a 2015 ceasefire.
Moscow has said this week it is drawing down forces massed near Ukraine. Western countries say they believe the opposite: more equipment and personnel are arriving and making the sort of preparations normally seen in the final days before an attack. The marked escalation of shelling in eastern Ukraine, where government troops have faced Moscow-backed rebels since 2014, has stoked global alarm since Thursday. Both sides have said shelling stepped up dramatically, although so far, no deaths have been reported.
The weather forecast for Southern Brazil and Argentina is back to cooler this morning on the heat maps.  Rain moved through Mato Grosso last night and totals were as high as 1.5 inches.  Harvest is slow and planting for second season corn is behind.  Argentina has good chances of the rains next week and the heat up North is backing off.  Most of Argentina will see an inch of rain and some areas as much as 2-3″.  Southern Brazil will be mostly dry where they are on the East side of the dome and most of the moisture stays locked out.  This forecast is a little bearish with some rain and temperature breaks coming for Argentina.

Markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents Day. I expect choppy trade today with a slightly higher close as we head into a 3-day weekend for traders.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com