November 19, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are quiet this am with corn and soybeans both unchanged.
A stronger US dollar, lower crude and lower equities with the DOW down over 250 points could add pressure to the grains, but instead they appear to be safe havens for investors.
With Covid cases rising globally an da few countries going into lock-down, there is concern over global demand for grains.
The overnight forecast run for South America now shows chances for light showers for the greater Buenos Aires region in the coming 10 day period. The forecast calls for normal to above normal rainfall across Northern and Central Brazil. Too much rain and chances for disease increase; the region will need warmer, sunnier conditions as the bean crop starts to bloom. Southern Brazil and Argentina remain dry, with chances for light showers (less than 1″) coming in the final days of November.
Producers should be talking with their grain buyers and getting firm offers and plans in place for December and Q1 sales. With the funds long 300k+ contracts it may take something significant to move these markets higher. A January report with higher production or a continued absence of Chinese buying is likely to move this market lower.
Look for limited trade next week with the holiday and lower volume.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
November 15, 2021
Good morning,
Softer markets to start the week with corn down 7 and soybeans down 5.
The forecast this morning is moving to a drier pattern next week. Temps will be on the cool side, but about normal for this time of year. Harvest should have little trouble getting underway this week. We should have a good chance of finishing up by Thanksgiving. Last week’s report saw 84% of anticipated 2021 U.S. corn acres harvested and 87% of U.S. soybean acres completed for the week ending November 7. This afternoon’s report should have us north of 90% on corn and soybeans.
The South American forecast is wet over the next 10 days. Northern Brazil will see heavy rain fall next week, holding in this very wet pattern. Argentina will have about 1-2 inches of coverage over most of the growing area. Their forecast may be too wet for the time being but has not delayed planting progress from averages.
President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have a summit meeting today. This will be the big story for this week and perhaps foreshadow what will happen when the trade agreement is up in 45 days.
A Biden administration official said the U.S. expects the virtual summit at 7:45 p.m. on Monday night in Washington to last several hours, a time frame that includes translation for both leaders in their third conversation this year. It comes as the world’s two biggest economies spar regularly over the origin of Covid-19, human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and the status of Taiwan.
While those issues aren’t going to be resolved in the meeting, the U.S. says it wants to put “guardrails” on the relationship, so it doesn’t get worse. The U.S. official, who asked not to be identified, told reporters that Biden will press Xi to abide by established international norms.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 25, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is up 1 and soybeans are up 10 to start the week.
Heavy rains over across the Midwest over the weekend slowed the late stages of corn and soybean harvest. The US weather is really wet into Thursday of this week. After this system passes, there is another one just about as big that develops Wednesday and moves through the Central US into Friday. The forecast shows a clear out of rain from Saturday to the end of the model run on November 7th. No other major storm system is forecast as of this morning. Temps look to be cooler as some cold air is going to move down from Canada. Not very good weather for harvest this week and it’s going to take a while to dry down.
Last week’s report saw 52% and 60% of U.S. corn and soybeans, respectively, harvested as of October 14. Both figures remained higher than the five-year average though the gap between the two metrics narrowed slightly week over week. Trade is looking for corn to be around 65% complete and soybeans 70% complete in this afternoons report.
Wheat continues to climb higher on the CBOT making contract highs over the last few days. Strength in the wheat market has spilled into corn and soybean helping pull them higher recently. Decent export demand along with questionable plantings is giving wheat legs.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 21, 2021
Good morning,
The market looks to be putting the brakes on the rally for now. Nothing has fundamentally changed; this looks like two steps forward one step back. Markets are softer this am as corn starts the day off down 4 and soybeans down 12.
Weekly export sales came in strong and could have provided some support, but it has failed to show up today. Weekly corn exports were 50.1 million bushels for corn and 105.8 million bushels for soybeans. Corn was in line with expectations and slightly above the previous week. Soybeans were above estimates and by far the highest in the past several months. As we would expect, world importers will show up to buy on any breaks in the markets.
US weather is going to be really wet over the next week. Rains move in on Sunday and last for about 4 days. Totals will be up to 3 inches over Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. The change to wetter weather will slow harvest, many beans are getting cut this week and yields are coming in on the top range of estimates. Corn yields remain variable, but there are some really good crops out there.
The gut slot of corn harvest is quickly approaching. Reports of on farm storage filling up and longer lines at elevators across the country are to be expected. Make sure you are making plans and sales with your local elevator/end user to get thing delivered.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 19, 2021
Good morning,
Corn and soybeans are both slightly higher this morning with corn up 2 and soybeans up 10.
Corn and soybeans have shifted the attention from supply to demand as harvest progresses along. Corn harvest was reported at 52% complete compared to 41% last week. Soybean harvest is 60% complete compared to 49% last week. Wisconsin corn harvest is being reported as 32% complete compared to 24% last week and 18% for the five year average.
The South American forecast is staying very wet. Most of Brazil will see rain in the next week and more scattered showers thereafter. Amounts of 1-3 inches will fall this week. Argentina is dry for the next 10 days but turns to significantly wetter thereafter. Brazil planting is 22% complete. Soybean farmers in the Center-West and Matopiba regions have been reporting that some fertilizer and glyphosate deliveries have been canceled by suppliers.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
