Good morning,

Corn opened the day 4 lower and soybeans are unchanged.

The energy market put the brakes on the rally last night led by natural gas, which is 200 lower this morning.  These markets sometimes effect the way prices trade at the CBOT and CME.  Energy has been helping the CBOT rally but is also in the process of putting in a high. This has created a bounce in corn and soybeans here at the beginning of harvest as beans are back over $13 and corn is around $5.30. If you need to sell something, this is an opportunity. The markets tend to sag at the end of the week in harvest when rallying early in the week.

Export sales were 246,600 mt of corn and 1,264,200 mt of beans.  Corn sales were on the slow side, where beans were strong and better than expected.  Next week may show the slowdown from the lack of offers at the Gulf. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed cancellations of 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans sold to China and another 196,000 tons sold to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.

China reportedly bought four to six cargoes of Brazilian soybeans (up to 360k tons) earlier this week for Oct-Nov delivery, an uncommon time frame for the purchases but likely due to the export outages in the U.S. Gulf as of late.  Freight rates for shipping are at the highs of the year due to the big bump in energy prices.  Foreign buyers do not know what to do as they want to buy the cheaper US corn, beans, and wheat as premiums in the basis market have dropped along with price.
The 10-day forecast is similar to yesterday where moderate rains are expected to fall somewhere between the Dakota’s and Minnesota.  The rest of the Midwest is mostly dry in the 10-day outlook and the 10-15.  Temps warm up out West for a few days and then subside to the South into Texas.  The back end of the model has turned to cooler this morning after the 90’s move out at the beginning of next week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Weaker markets to start the week with corn and soybeans down 9 and 5 respectively this morning.

After Fridays report the markets surprisingly closed 7 higher despite bearish news in the report.  On Friday the USDA raised the corn yield from 174.6 bu/acre to 176.3.  Carryout was increased from 1.242 billion bushels to 1.408.  Bean yield increased from 50 bu/acre to 50.6 and carryout was raised from 160 to 185 million bushels.   The acres change that many in the trade thought would be up substantially, was only increased 600,000 in corn and lowered 400,000 in beans.

Another Tropical storm is headed into the Gulf and this one is called Nicholas.  The storm is supposed to make landfall in Texas late today.  Sixty mile per hour winds and rains of up to 8 inches are forecast.  Louisiana could see 2-4 inches, which may slow progress on getting the power grid back to normal.  So far 3 of the US export facilities are operational in the Gulf.  A high-pressure ridge has set up out West and will keep most precipitation limited to the East and far North.  Dry conditions will move the crop along and we should see harvest pick up later this week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

USDA report out at 11am today. Estimates and actuals are listed below.

2020/21 US Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)

2021/22 US Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)

2021/22 US Production (Billion Bu)

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. expects to restart operations at two Louisiana export elevators, in Ama and Reserve, by the end of the month while repairs at the elevator in Destrehan will take “a few weeks longer” after damage from Hurricane Ida, the company says Thursday in an emailed statement.  Only two major export grain elevators on the lower Mississippi have returned to action in the past week after Hurricane Ida barreled through the region, according to vessel data analyzed by Bloomberg News.

I can’t tell you what the USDA will do today on the report.  Many expect yields to be raised for corn and beans, increasing ending stocks.  This is possible, but the market is down and liquidated out ahead of the Report.  Downside risk is more limited with the Funds holding a smaller deck of positions, especially in beans and wheat.  It was record hot out West this year and pretty normal in the East.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are flat today with corn unchanged to start the day.

Traders are positioning ahead of tomorrows USDA report that will be released at 11am. Expectations are for acres to increase with potential yield adjustments.

The FSA inadvertently posted September’s acreage data on Wednesday morning. The data was meant to be released on Friday. The August data set reported corn acres as 90.3 million. The September release ups the acres by 909,468 to 91.2 million. The highest corn acreage increases were seen in South Dakota (+228,695), North Dakota (+221,036), and Nebraska (+148,771). Acres are typically added as more documents are processed by FSA staff. Soybean FSA acres increased 897,396 from the August report to 86.2 million acres in the September issue.
Prevented planting corn acres rose 17,346 acres from August to 637,805 acres according to the latest FSA release. Soybean prevented planting acres are estimated at 336,563 acres according to the latest FSA crop acreage dataset.

December corn (CZ21) is testing support at 5.00 ahead of the crop report tomorrow.  FSA numbers have the market turning negative on the addition of new acres added to the program. If the USDA does show this acreage increase in tomorrow’s report, I would not be surprised to see us head towards the CZ gap at 4.775 that was made back on March 31^st.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are weak to start the day with corn down 10 and soybeans down 3 after the traders 3 day weekend.

We have a USDA report out on Thursday this week where the USDA is expected to increase production even if they don’t adjust yield. Traders are expecting the USDA to increase planted acres to get closer to the FSA’s numbers that were released after the USDA’s June report. We could see upwards of 1.0 million acres more in Thursday’s report. Below are the estimates for Thursday:

USDA 2020/21 US Carryout(billion bu)

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout(billion bu)

USDA 2021/22 US Production(billion bu)

USDA 2021/22 US Yield(Bp/acre)

The US weather is mostly dry over the next 10 days.  Crop ratings will show a mature crop with little change in condition ratings from here forward.  Temperatures are going to be pretty warm over most all of the Western US.  Above normal temps are forecast from California to Texas and up into Canada.  The Eastern US will have normal temps.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com