Good morning,

Markets are down again this morning as corn starts the day out 9 lower and soybeans 14 lower.

Prices got hit hard yesterday as chart related selling rolled things lower in corn, beans and wheat. Those types of clean outs happen from time to time and end up creating a long-term market lows.  There still looks to be some issues this morning dealing with the wreckage created across all markets yesterday.  This may take another day or two to air out, but the break should be slower than it was yesterday.

Pro Farmer IA corn yield at 191 vs 178 ly and USDA 193. IA soybean pod count 1,217 vs 1,146 ly. Pro Farmer MN corn yield 177 vs 195 ly and USDA 166. MN soybean pod count 1,027 vs 1,085 ly.  Pro Farmer is confirming the lower yields in Minnesota, and was surprisingly low for Illinois, where a record crop is expected.  From all the pictures coming in from the tour crop maturity is ahead of schedule.  Early plant dates and heat this summer have really moved this crop along.  Historically Pro Farmers yields are well below the USDAs August and final numbers, so this should not come as a surprise. What should be a concern for producers is how much higher Pro Farmer yields are compared to last year.

Look for a bumpy trade today as the charts are a mess and more rain is on the way.  Traders are fearful as always of Covid. I don’t think that the market would go into wholesale liquidation and have the funds get out of all of their positions, but Covid can make anything happen.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

This morning corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 18 to start the day.

The initial response to yesterday’s report was very bullish as futures traded 30+ higher for a while, but eventually settled 14 higher. The report was bullish, but with traders holding long positions heading into the report it made closing significantly higher a challenge. The USDA lowered yield by 5 bpa in yesterdays report which was the shock that moved the market. Their July estimate had corn at 179.5 bpa which most felt was too high. In yesterdays report they pegged it at 174.6 bpa which most now feel is too low. I would expect this year’s crop comes in closer to 177-178 range when we get the final numbers in January. This should keep pressure on the markets and prevent new crop from running significantly higher in the next couple months.

The FSA yield data was released yesterday afternoon and there were more corn acres reported. If the USDA would adjust their number and follow the FSA(which is the actual planted acres), we could see 500,000 to 1.0 million more corn acres as there was very little prevent plant noted. This could dramatically shift the balance sheet and increase carryout by 85-175 million bushels.

Old crop basis levels have plummeted across the country as end users become covered. As I stated yesterday, anyone holding old crop corn should get things moved ASAP.

Here are yesterday’s USDA numbers:

2021/22 USDA Yield (Bu/acre)

2021/22 USDA Production (bln bu)

2020/21 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

2021/22 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

We have opened the day weaker as traders’ position for the 11am report. Corn is currently down 5 and soybeans are down 12.

The USDA will release their August WASDE report at 11am this morning. Estimates are listed below. The FSA will also be reporting acres and program participation on their website at 12 today.

2021/22 USDA Yield (Bu/acre)

2021/22 USDA Production (bln bu)

2020/21 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

2021/22 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

We have no idea what the USDA will do as far as yields go today.  They did not go out into the fields for this Report; surveys and satellite imagery were used to estimate yields. (Personally I think this technology may be more accurate than actual field checks because it covers the whole field.)  If heat figures into their models at all, the yield trend should be down today.  They may not move the needle very far and take a wait and see approach with actual field results.

Tropical Storm Fred is expected to make landfall in Florida this weekend.  The models are inflating a little with some more rainfall into the Midwest this morning.  The lower Midwest has some heavier totals showing up into the Dakota’s and Canada.  It’s still going to be hot out West, but most of it is out beyond Iowa and Illinois.

Basis levels on old crop corn have been crumbling the last few days as end users are covered and new crop is on the doorstep. Anyone that is sitting on old crop corn may have missed the boat on great prices but can and should take advantage of prices that may still have a 6 in front of them before they are gone.

Check back after 11 for today’s numbers.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn opened 3 lower and soybeans 7 higher to start the day.

US corn ratings increased 2 pct to 64 G/E. The rating surprised the market, where trade analysts were estimating an average weekly rating of 62% for the week with a range of 59% – 64%. The ratings boost was welcome news for farmers as crops continue peak maturation development. Soybeans conditions stabilized at 60% G/E for a second straight week in yesterday’s Crop Progress report, which was in line with analyst expectations.
Storms moved through the US yesterday and will continue to do so today.  The 10-day forecast by the EU has most of the rain falling in the next 48 hours.  Illinois and East look to be the benefactors of the rain event as the West is primarily dry.  A tropical storm is heading into Florida, which is impacting weather models this morning.  There is enough rain on the radar to hold markets back, but we are not falling apart either.

December corn has been trading around 5.50 for the better part of a month.  I think producers should be making sales at these levels as they are very good prices. There are so many unknowns in the market that you always have to worry at least a little about losing your market when its good.  Covid, the USDA or something that we are not even expecting could always knock it off its block.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com