Good morning,

USDA report out at 11am today. Estimates and actuals are listed below.

2020/21 US Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)

2021/22 US Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)

2021/22 US Production (Billion Bu)

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. expects to restart operations at two Louisiana export elevators, in Ama and Reserve, by the end of the month while repairs at the elevator in Destrehan will take “a few weeks longer” after damage from Hurricane Ida, the company says Thursday in an emailed statement.  Only two major export grain elevators on the lower Mississippi have returned to action in the past week after Hurricane Ida barreled through the region, according to vessel data analyzed by Bloomberg News.

I can’t tell you what the USDA will do today on the report.  Many expect yields to be raised for corn and beans, increasing ending stocks.  This is possible, but the market is down and liquidated out ahead of the Report.  Downside risk is more limited with the Funds holding a smaller deck of positions, especially in beans and wheat.  It was record hot out West this year and pretty normal in the East.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are flat today with corn unchanged to start the day.

Traders are positioning ahead of tomorrows USDA report that will be released at 11am. Expectations are for acres to increase with potential yield adjustments.

The FSA inadvertently posted September’s acreage data on Wednesday morning. The data was meant to be released on Friday. The August data set reported corn acres as 90.3 million. The September release ups the acres by 909,468 to 91.2 million. The highest corn acreage increases were seen in South Dakota (+228,695), North Dakota (+221,036), and Nebraska (+148,771). Acres are typically added as more documents are processed by FSA staff. Soybean FSA acres increased 897,396 from the August report to 86.2 million acres in the September issue.
Prevented planting corn acres rose 17,346 acres from August to 637,805 acres according to the latest FSA release. Soybean prevented planting acres are estimated at 336,563 acres according to the latest FSA crop acreage dataset.

December corn (CZ21) is testing support at 5.00 ahead of the crop report tomorrow.  FSA numbers have the market turning negative on the addition of new acres added to the program. If the USDA does show this acreage increase in tomorrow’s report, I would not be surprised to see us head towards the CZ gap at 4.775 that was made back on March 31^st.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are weak to start the day with corn down 10 and soybeans down 3 after the traders 3 day weekend.

We have a USDA report out on Thursday this week where the USDA is expected to increase production even if they don’t adjust yield. Traders are expecting the USDA to increase planted acres to get closer to the FSA’s numbers that were released after the USDA’s June report. We could see upwards of 1.0 million acres more in Thursday’s report. Below are the estimates for Thursday:

USDA 2020/21 US Carryout(billion bu)

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout(billion bu)

USDA 2021/22 US Production(billion bu)

USDA 2021/22 US Yield(Bp/acre)

The US weather is mostly dry over the next 10 days.  Crop ratings will show a mature crop with little change in condition ratings from here forward.  Temperatures are going to be pretty warm over most all of the Western US.  Above normal temps are forecast from California to Texas and up into Canada.  The Eastern US will have normal temps.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 9 to start this Friday heading into a three day weekend. I would expect to see the markets close unchanged to lower as traders ship off for the extended weekend.

The Gulf supplies 60% of the Ag trade out of the US.  The LDC Port Allen Facility is already up with power and now only waits for the Mississippi River to be cleared and they will be back in business.  Other facilities still do not have power, but that should change in the coming days.  The greatest damage was to the Cargill facility which could take months to get back online.  This facility exports approximately 15% of the US grain. The rest were mostly undamaged and it remains a power issue.  Power is coming back to many areas in New Orleans.  There will be pent up Chinese demand as soon as scheduling of cargoes can continue.

Democratic lawmakers are asking House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to extend a biofuel production tax credit and include other measures to expand U.S. biofuel use in upcoming budget legislation.  The lawmakers, led by Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minn., want the congressional leaders to include provisions that would enhance fuel pump infrastructure, allow retailers to sell E15 year-round, set a low-carbon fuel tax and other manufacturing incentives.

The 7 day forecast has rain coming to Kansas, Missouri and the Southern tip of Illinois.  Warm temps will show up out West next week and stay above normal for the next 10 days.  The Eastern US will see below normal temps.  The market is going to start looking for cold temps now, in case there is an early frost.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are lower to start the day with corn and soybeans down 12 and 17 respectively.

Several things are pressing the markets the last few days.

1. The longs are liquidating their positions.
2. Hurricane Ida is putting pressure on the exports after damaging terminals in LA.
3. New crop harvest pressure.
4. Covid -Delta variant

All of these are giving the bears reason to move the markets lower and are doing it at a rampant pace. Things may stabilize in the future, but trade appears to be headed lower until one or all of these are resolved.

Three days after the Category 4 hurricane came ashore, more than a million homes and businesses remained without electricity on Wednesday and power utility Entergy Corp warned it may take weeks to restore service in some areas where transmission towers lay in crumpled heaps of metal.  The electrical power company is reporting that 216 stations and more the 2,000 miles of transmission lines are without service.  Electrical crews from nearby states are making way for New Orleans to help put up towers and lines in order to restore power.  The wind damage was estimated to be worse than Katrina, knocking out more trees and towers.  (Reuters)

The Cargill elevator damaged by Hurricane Ida in Reserve, Louisiana is responsible for nearly 9% of America’s bulk seaborne exports of corn, soybeans and wheat so far in 2021, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

USDA shipments show a total of 6.45 million tons of agricultural product loaded at the Cargill terminal, with 5.3 million tons of corn topping the list. The primary recipient of crops through the elevator this year has been China, receiving 47% of its output including 2.5 million tons of corn and 485,000 tons of soybeans.

The 7 day forecast looks much the same as yesterday with rain setting up in the West Central US.  Amounts will be up to 3 inches in the heaviest areas.  This rain event shows up on Friday and Saturday of this week, after which a ridge sets up from Texas North.  Its not a big ridge, and temps will warm up in the Western US and leave the East at below normal temps.

Have a safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com