Good morning,

Stronger markets in corn and wheat to open the day as they trade 9 and 3 higher, respectively. Soybeans are currently down 3.

US weather has some rain in the forecast starting this weekend. A tropical storm is moving into the Gulf and should make landfall in New Orleans. Heat and dryness persist out in the Plains and all the way West. The forecast does not have any rain West of Iowa/Minnesota and the heat will linger into the end of the month. Conditions are as bad out West as the 2012 drought was for the Central Midwest. Crops are really going to suffer.
Central US weather is a mix between the models this morning. The GFS has significant rain falling in parts of Iowa, but most of that is to the East where the Tropical storm is expected to kick the ridge West and let moisture move North into the Midwest. The GFS has rain going from New Orleans to Wisconsin on this run. The EU model has none of this, the moisture is blocked out North of Kentucky. Iowa, Illinois and even Missouri get shortchanged on this rain event. These models are very different, and we cannot guess which one is correct. It’s probably some of both in the end. After this tropical storm moves through, the ridge comes back East bringing hotter temps and a return to the same Hot/dry pattern. If this rain is a miss, we will immediately rally prices up to the gaps left early this week.
Chinese state grain company, Sinograin, will auction off corn shipments it imported from Ukraine earlier this month to help ease high grain prices across the country amid tightening supplies and rising fears about inflation. Sinograin will sell 1.5 million bushels of corn on Friday, marking the second sale this month by the state-owned trading company as well as the first state corn import sales in years.
China’s premier pledged to farmers that the government will act to prevent excessive falls in local corn prices to protect grower incomes and ensure they can manage rising costs of fertilizer and land rent. (don’t see this support in the US)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weaker markets continue today as corn is down 17 and soybeans are down 15.

The USDA dropped the weekly corn ratings 4% last night to 68% Good/Excellent. IA was down 14, MN down 11 and IL down 6. Wisconsin was reported at 71% G/E compared to 76% last week. National soybean ratings were down 5% on the week with 62% rated G/E. WI came in at 65% G/E compared to 72% last week.
Weather continues to be the driver in the market with cooler and wetter forecasts in the coming week. The temperature forecast is for hot temps over the next couple days, before a breakdown of the Ridge on June 20th. Temps cool out into June 25th, when the Ridge moves back in. A Tropical storm looks to shove the Ridge back out West letting Gulf moisture up into the Midwest.
Forecast changes are going wreak havoc on the markets going forward. Any significant changes for the better or worse are going to flip the markets. I don’t think the market is over as July and August are where crops are made, but I do believe the highs are in barring any dramatic change in weather. We should have another chance at selling new crop corn on any weather bounce and these bounces should be met with strong sales.

Have a Safe Day

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are sharply lower to start the week with corn down 30 and soybeans down 50.

The markets are selling off based on a significant change n weather forecast for the coming weeks. There is heavy rain in the forecast for the Central US. Amounts of 2-3 inches are forecast for Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. One private forecast has rain starting on the 21st of June and rains every day until the end of the model run on the 27th. If this proves true, the crop will be in very good shape from these rains.
There also appears to be pressure on the markets from the potential change in biofuels policy. The refiners are balking at RIN prices as you would expect. The rollback and or potential denying of small refiner waivers granted during the Trump era is partly to blame for high rins, but also the extreme volatility of gasoline supply and demand over the last 15 months is certainly playing a role. In a recent round of discussions “senators discussed options like a nationwide general waiver exempting the refining industry from some obligations, lowering the amount of renewable fuel refiners must blend in the future, creating a price cap on compliance credits, and issuing an emergency declaration.” This is a tough spot and real test for the current administration as it tries to appease the Ag lobby and the Energy lobby all the while running on very green, environmentally friendly platform.
This is only the second day down since corn made the high last Thursday. It looks like free fall until we hit the 5.40’s. If it rains, we may slide all the way back to the previous low of 5 dollars. The weatherman is in charge of the market now and things change quickly.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is down 5, wheat is down 9 and soybeans are down 2 to open the day.

The market is trading weather this morning with Minneapolis wheat as the leader. Corn was lower yesterday after the USDA put out crop ratings that were much better than many would have guessed. There is still rain around the Midwest, so we don’t see the weather as that crazy bullish; we do respect the heat and it may be an indication of more to come.

China hailed on Thursday the resumption of “normal discussions” with the United States on the trade and economic fronts, apparently keen to move beyond a trade war as it said both sides aimed to resolve issues pragmatically.
China’s Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States, has held two video calls with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a week, marking the first formal engagement between the two sides on trade and economic issues under the Biden administration.
The EIA released updated ethanol production information today in its weekly Petroleum Inventory Status report. Total stocks were up 608 million barrels while production was up 23 million barrels. As summer approaches, fuel demand is increasing with last week’s report showing a 15% increase in daily gasoline consumption since early March 2021.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Markets are down 4 in corn and up 10 in soybeans to open the day.

Yesterday’s strong markets were driven by the funds as they added to their long positions with the start of a new month and talk that China would continue to buy and take delivery of previous purchases.

In yesterday afternoons first crop condition rating for the season, the US corn crop was rated 76%. Below are where the major corn producing states came in:
NE = 88%
IL = 80%
IA = 81%
OH = 79%
MN = 76%
IN = 74%
WI = 81%

There are several stories of producers having to re-plant frost damaged beans and corn from last weeks frost, but these areas are very limited and will have little to no impact on the markets. I toured a large portion of our draw area over the last 3 days and saw very few areas of great concern. Most of the damage I saw was corn plants with nipped leaves or areas that the plant had already begun to shoot new leaves.

The US weather forecast into June 12 has taken a lot of the rain out. Heavy rains will fall in Texas and on over to New Orleans. Amounts of up to 7-10 inches are expected. The Central and Western Midwest opens up with a high pressure ridge building a dome that pushes the precipitation to the far North and South. There are some spotty rains in the Northwest of North Dakota. One of the private forecasts that I follow has more rain in it than this model. They have a storm showing up on June 11th and moving through most of the Midwest for the next few days.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com