Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are starting the month off with a Bang! Corn is up 35 and soybeans are up 45 early this morning.
Rumors, facts, and more rumors seem to move the market day to day. Last week there was talk of China cancelling old crop purchases that pushed the markets lower. This lower trade resulted in them buying more old and new crop corn. Today the talk is that China is going to be loading out almost all the old crop corn we owe them.
This afternoon’s planting progress is expected to be 97% complete compared to 88% on average. Crop ratings are expected to be rated 70% Good/Excellent. While it is still very early, if we do see a 70% G/E, this would be a good indicator as to where the final yield will be. In 11 of the 15 years where the first crop rating was 70% or higher, the final yield was above the USDA’s May estimate. This years May estimate was 179.5 bpa.
In my opinion US weather is not bullish at this point. We have adequate rain across most of the Midwest with warming temperatures that will move the crop along. Last week’s lower temperatures/frost affected very few acres. There will be some replanting taking place in the northern states, but that is very minimal.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Markets opened lower today with corn down 5 and soybeans down 10.

Yesterdays limit higher close was just another volatile day in the markets with no solid reason for the speculative trade. We have seen limit lower and limit higher trade days this week as trade continues to make big swings on rumors and fund positioning.
A cool stretch of weather has some traders monitoring potential frost damage in the northern trade areas, but it currently looks like this will be avoided. The only real potential appears to be in the Northern ND area. The US weather is going to have to turn away from the wet outlook we have been seeing before any weather premium is going to be added.

The 7 day and 10 day forecast has a lot of rain for Missouri, Kansas and Illinois/Indiana South. Most of the heavy rain is in Kansas down into Texas where amounts will top 3-4 inches. The whole South and East are also supposed to get moderate to heavy rain. The only dry area is up in the Dakota’s and in Minnesota. Temps will back to more normal next week after this cold front moves out.
The market appears to be setting back after yesterdays big rally as we head into a three-day weekend. There will be no markets on Monday and trade will resume Tuesday morning.

Thank you to all the military service men and women who have and are currently serving our country. We would not have the freedoms we have today if not for your service.

Have a Safe Memorial Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets have bounced higher this morning with corn and soybeans both up 18.

Weekly export sales this morning showed old crop sales slightly above estimates at 21.9 million bushels for the week. New crop sales were very strong at 224 million bushels. This has been the trend over the past couple weeks as China continues to buy US new crop corn and soybeans.
Ethanol production leveled off last week, though there are still optimistic signs for the industry as the summer travel season approaches. For the week ending May 21, ethanol output fell 2% to 42.5 million gallons/day. Ethanol inventories fell to the lowest level since 2016 as the industry adjusts production capacity to current blending demand levels.
China is clamping down on some corn imports amid concern that overseas purchases have spiraled out of control, prompting several feed mills to cancel their U.S. cargoes. Chinese customs authorities are restricting imports into free trade zones, which aren’t counted toward an official annual purchase quota, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
China’s crackdown on corn purchases is targeted at businesses that have set up blending facilities in the free trade zones, according to the people familiar with the matter. These facilities allow firms to mix the imported corn with other raw materials to produce livestock feed that enable them to profit from zero-tariff imports, the people said.

US weather is bearish and the rain coming though should continue to weigh on prices, but it looks like we are going to pause for now. Demand is still really good for corn and the funds have liquidated over half of their position.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Commodities have been a yoyo this morning. Corn and soybeans opened slightly lower (2-3 cents) then sold off dramatically (15-20 cents) and have now bounced back to unchanged. Welcome to Volatility! Yesterday was a huge risk off day in the corn market as technical trading kicked in as limits were hit.
Corn futures have lost nearly a dollar in the past week which represents the largest percentage drop for a July futures contract since 1973! Favorable weather forecasts for the central US has funds lightening their previously long positions. We also continue to hear rumors regarding China canceling or rolling old crop corn purchases. While these have not been confirmed, where there is smoke there is fire.
The 10 day forecast for South American weather remains much the same today. Complete dryness will be ongoing in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, which combine to total half of Brazil’s corn growing area. The lack of rain will also keep river levels historically low in parts of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. This will lead to increased freight charges and logistical headaches for the coming months.
Argentine port workers said on Tuesday they would hold another 48-hour strike starting at midnight today (Wednesday), after a similar strike halted agricultural exports from the country last week. Port workers in the country are unhappy with measures being taken as the pandemic persists and are asking to be deemed ‘essential workers’ and, thus, become eligible to receive the vaccine.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Looks like the funds are going to be selling out another large chunk of their position again this week. News is pretty limited this Monday AM. Crop progress is expected to show 91-92 percent of the corn planted and 80-84% of the beans planted. June 1st will be the first crop ratings this year. The warmer temperatures and scattered showers over the past week will also help coax emergence rates higher. Last week, 41% of 2021 planted corn had emerged. Emergence rates pulled away from the five-year average of 35% for the week after posting a 21% rise over the previous week’s readings.
Political turmoil is back at play in Argentina, disrupting grain flows once again. A 48-hour port workers strike is planned this week to protest slow COVID-19 vaccination rates, following another strike last Wednesday through Thursday.
Weather is mostly ideal for the majority of the US. Temps are warm until a cool front is going to arrive Wednesday bringing rain with it. Fund selling hasn’t slowed recently and traders positions are getting smaller by the day, eventually we will find a bottom. This may just be a retest of the low in corn today. Beans are going down much slower as the fund position is mostly liquidated.

China has been buying a lot of corn out of the Ukraine. Last week they bought 4.5 mmts from the Ukraine while also buying 11.5 mmts of US corn. The purchases had no effect on the market.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com