The rollercoaster continues this morning as corn is down 9 and soybeans are down 2 to start the day.

The USDA dropped US corn rating to 65% G/E last night vs. 68% last week. NE led the way at 83% G/E with OH, IN and WI next in line. WI came in at 69% G/E which is down from last weeks 71%. The most notable drops were in MN which was down 8% at 50% and IA which was down7% at 56%. While numbers were down, most expect they will turn higher next week as the rains we received across the corn belt late last week were very beneficial and hadn’t yet impacted the crops as of this survey time.

The weather models are calling for rain across the Central US in the next week.  Amounts are in a wide range of 2-6 inches.  Illinois and Missouri have the most rain in the forecast and it tapers off as you move West.  Its going to be hot in the far Western plains and relatively mild in the Central US.  The actual timing of the rain is for this Thursday/Friday and then again around July 4th.

China soybean imports totaled 9.0 million tons in May, lower than last May. On the other hand, June imports are projected at 11.6 million tons, the all-time high monthly imports, primarily due to massive arrivals of Brazilian soybeans (11.4 million tons). In addition, 8.3 million tons of soybeans have departed from the loading ports and will arrive in China in July. According to Refinitiv’s trade flows, the majority of Chinese imports in June/July will be originated from Brazil. Meanwhile, China resumes soybean imports from Argentina and Uruguay in June/July after negligible imports over the past half year.

China’s imports of American goods slowed again in May, putting the purchase targets agreed with the U.S. in the 2020 trade deal even further out of reach.  China bought almost $10 billion worth of manufactured, agricultural and energy goods from the U.S. in May, the lowest monthly total since October 2020. That took total imports to almost $157 billion since January 2020, which equates to 41.4% of the targets the two nations agreed at that time.
Producers should be actively making sales ahead of next Wednesdays USDA report. If we get more acres(which is expected) and weather stays the course, this market could have another setback that we don’t rebound from.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Stronger markets in corn and wheat to open the day as they trade 9 and 3 higher, respectively. Soybeans are currently down 3.

US weather has some rain in the forecast starting this weekend. A tropical storm is moving into the Gulf and should make landfall in New Orleans. Heat and dryness persist out in the Plains and all the way West. The forecast does not have any rain West of Iowa/Minnesota and the heat will linger into the end of the month. Conditions are as bad out West as the 2012 drought was for the Central Midwest. Crops are really going to suffer.
Central US weather is a mix between the models this morning. The GFS has significant rain falling in parts of Iowa, but most of that is to the East where the Tropical storm is expected to kick the ridge West and let moisture move North into the Midwest. The GFS has rain going from New Orleans to Wisconsin on this run. The EU model has none of this, the moisture is blocked out North of Kentucky. Iowa, Illinois and even Missouri get shortchanged on this rain event. These models are very different, and we cannot guess which one is correct. It’s probably some of both in the end. After this tropical storm moves through, the ridge comes back East bringing hotter temps and a return to the same Hot/dry pattern. If this rain is a miss, we will immediately rally prices up to the gaps left early this week.
Chinese state grain company, Sinograin, will auction off corn shipments it imported from Ukraine earlier this month to help ease high grain prices across the country amid tightening supplies and rising fears about inflation. Sinograin will sell 1.5 million bushels of corn on Friday, marking the second sale this month by the state-owned trading company as well as the first state corn import sales in years.
China’s premier pledged to farmers that the government will act to prevent excessive falls in local corn prices to protect grower incomes and ensure they can manage rising costs of fertilizer and land rent. (don’t see this support in the US)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weaker markets continue today as corn is down 17 and soybeans are down 15.

The USDA dropped the weekly corn ratings 4% last night to 68% Good/Excellent. IA was down 14, MN down 11 and IL down 6. Wisconsin was reported at 71% G/E compared to 76% last week. National soybean ratings were down 5% on the week with 62% rated G/E. WI came in at 65% G/E compared to 72% last week.
Weather continues to be the driver in the market with cooler and wetter forecasts in the coming week. The temperature forecast is for hot temps over the next couple days, before a breakdown of the Ridge on June 20th. Temps cool out into June 25th, when the Ridge moves back in. A Tropical storm looks to shove the Ridge back out West letting Gulf moisture up into the Midwest.
Forecast changes are going wreak havoc on the markets going forward. Any significant changes for the better or worse are going to flip the markets. I don’t think the market is over as July and August are where crops are made, but I do believe the highs are in barring any dramatic change in weather. We should have another chance at selling new crop corn on any weather bounce and these bounces should be met with strong sales.

Have a Safe Day

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are sharply lower to start the week with corn down 30 and soybeans down 50.

The markets are selling off based on a significant change n weather forecast for the coming weeks. There is heavy rain in the forecast for the Central US. Amounts of 2-3 inches are forecast for Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. One private forecast has rain starting on the 21st of June and rains every day until the end of the model run on the 27th. If this proves true, the crop will be in very good shape from these rains.
There also appears to be pressure on the markets from the potential change in biofuels policy. The refiners are balking at RIN prices as you would expect. The rollback and or potential denying of small refiner waivers granted during the Trump era is partly to blame for high rins, but also the extreme volatility of gasoline supply and demand over the last 15 months is certainly playing a role. In a recent round of discussions “senators discussed options like a nationwide general waiver exempting the refining industry from some obligations, lowering the amount of renewable fuel refiners must blend in the future, creating a price cap on compliance credits, and issuing an emergency declaration.” This is a tough spot and real test for the current administration as it tries to appease the Ag lobby and the Energy lobby all the while running on very green, environmentally friendly platform.
This is only the second day down since corn made the high last Thursday. It looks like free fall until we hit the 5.40’s. If it rains, we may slide all the way back to the previous low of 5 dollars. The weatherman is in charge of the market now and things change quickly.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is down 5, wheat is down 9 and soybeans are down 2 to open the day.

The market is trading weather this morning with Minneapolis wheat as the leader. Corn was lower yesterday after the USDA put out crop ratings that were much better than many would have guessed. There is still rain around the Midwest, so we don’t see the weather as that crazy bullish; we do respect the heat and it may be an indication of more to come.

China hailed on Thursday the resumption of “normal discussions” with the United States on the trade and economic fronts, apparently keen to move beyond a trade war as it said both sides aimed to resolve issues pragmatically.
China’s Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States, has held two video calls with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a week, marking the first formal engagement between the two sides on trade and economic issues under the Biden administration.
The EIA released updated ethanol production information today in its weekly Petroleum Inventory Status report. Total stocks were up 608 million barrels while production was up 23 million barrels. As summer approaches, fuel demand is increasing with last week’s report showing a 15% increase in daily gasoline consumption since early March 2021.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com