July 16, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 3 and soybeans up 14.
The forecast for this morning has a lot less rain in it than has been advertised over the past couple days. The Eastern Belt and the far South see most of the rain in the next 10 days. Rains will be totally absent in Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakota’s and farther West. This is the wrong time for this to happen and could start to shrink the crop. Heat is the bigger concern as its going to get hot out West. Crops usually see good weather on the outer edges of Domes, and in this case that’s Illinois and East.
Ridges make rallies in the summer markets, and it is a hot one out West. We may not keep all this rally today as there is risk going into a weekend and weather changes for the Sunday trade. The markets have become dangerous with the increased volatility, where you can move corn 40 cents and soybeans a dollar on any given day. We do still have some gaps in corn and soybeans that could be filled on the CBOT.
Weather-related problems with Brazil’s second corn crop have sparked a spate of companies exiting their contracts on washout clauses, causing what some traders described as potentially the biggest wave of export cancellations for the world’s No. 2 supplier in five years. According to grain traders and brokers who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, a lot of the corn earmarked for exports is being redirected to the domestic market as premiums are attractive due to shortfalls after the crop was hit by drought and an ill-timed frost. Brazil has replaced some of these cancellations with Argentina corn as well.
Have a Safe weekend!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 15, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is down 6 and soybeans are down 8 to start the day with favorable weather and rainfall over the last 24 hours.
The weather forecast is mostly the same as yesterday with rains moving into the Central US. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will get the majority of the precip in coming days. After the rains over the next two days there isn’t much storm activity until about next Thursday/Friday. Totals and amounts are going to be hit or miss for the 15 day forecast.
The market is still working on cleaning up the charts from the gaps left from the Tuesday after the 4th of July. We are close in corn, but still need to get up to 5.735. I don’t think we get this done this week based on weather trade, but could make a run at it next week with warmer temperatures.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 14, 2021
Good morning,
Stronger markets to open the day with corn up 12-15 and soybeans up 25-30.
Weather is the market mover this morning. With forecasts for nice rains across the Midwest the focus is on how much will everyone receive and will there be damaging storms along with them.
Over the next two weeks there are two storm systems that move through the Midwest. The current one is in Minnesota right now and more storms will develop in Eastern Iowa and move into Northern Illinois and Wisconsin. At the very back end of the models a new storm is developing that moves in over a couple days through Iowa and Central Illinois. Some of the current totals will be on the heavy side with levels from 2-7 inches predicted. The seven-day forecast by NOAA is consistent with the EU on placement and amounts this morning for the current storm system.
Warm weather moves into the Midwest starting next week, but it does not look very hot. A ridge sets up limiting rain, but it does not bring much high heat. The warmest temps are up in the Northern plains and up into Canada.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 12, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is up 5 and soybeans are up 9 to start the morning. Favorable weather over the weekend and forecasts for rain in most areas of the Midwest will keep things under wrap early this week. We do have the July WASDE report released at 11am today. My guess is that this report will not be a market mover as I only expect them to update the acres and not adjust yield until the August report. (Estimates below)
The additional acres will be added to corn today, which will increase the carryout. All other adjustments should be minor. This report is not a big one, and we do not expect anything bearish. The market has been washed out hard in corn over the past week, so we think we try and close higher today.
2020/21 Ending Stocks (million bu)
| July 12 | Average Est. | Previous Report | |
| Corn | 1.082 | 1.092 | 1.107 |
| Soybeans | 135 | 135 | 135 |
2021/22 Ending Stocks (million bu)
| July 12 | Average Est. | Previous Report | |
| Corn | 1.432 | 1.304 | 1.357 |
| Soybeans | 155 | 140 | 155 |
| Wheat | 665 | 719 | 770 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 8, 2021
Good Morning,
Lower markets out of the gates today with corn down 4 and soybeans down 2.
Corn futures have dropped 50 cents so far this week and more than 12% from their record in January. China’s top agriculture think-tank has cut its estimate for total corn demand in 2020-21 by 3 million tons to 278 million tons and by 5 million tons for next year. While the researcher kept import predictions unchanged, the decrease in local demand strengthens speculation that foreign purchases may have peaked.
The 10 day forecast has rains coming to the Central US this weekend. Amounts are expected to be in the 1-2 inch range for Illinois and Iowa. Indiana and to the Southeast will see up to 3-4. The rains in the forecast have moved East leaving the West mostly shortchanged. Temps are really going to heat up out West the beginning of next week. The heat advances West into the end of the model run. The forecast has less rain, but it still has enough to keep the market down. The heat is still going to be a problem for all those out West.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
