April 19, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are stronger this morning with corn up 6 and soybeans up 9.
The three factors supporting the markets today are a weaker US dollar, dry weather in Brazil for the Safrinha crop and cold US temps to start the week.
The 10 day forecast has no rain in it for second crop Brazilian corn. This is the dry season for Brazil; it just seems that this year the extremes have been greater than usual. No rain for the next 10 days is going to pull yields lower. Brazilian corn is right ahead of pollination. Temps will be in the 80’s-90’s.
Expectations for this afternoon’s corn planting progress are expected to be 10-11% vs. 8% for the 5 year average. The first soybean planting progress update is expected this afternoon as well.
Friday’s report showed the funds adding 15,400 contracts to their net long position in corn. They are currently estimated to be long 402,000 contracts which is the largest net long since January of 2011 and nearing the all-time record long of 429,000 contracts.
I would advise producers to get firm offers in for old crop corn in the $5.90-$6.00 range and new crop offers in between 5.00-$5.15 range. While the market has been slowly climbing higher, we need to keep in mind that the funds are running the market right now and at some point they will start to dump these longs and send the market into a quick tailspin. We have a gap in December corn to fill between $4.775 and 4.8076 that I would expect to see filled in the coming weeks.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 15, 2021
Good Morning,
Old corn is down 3, new corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 4 to start the day.
Exports were very low this week without much interest in any of the core US products. Corn sales were 327,700 mt with almost all the sales coming from 50/50 with Japan and Mexico. Bean sales were 90,400 mt with a host of traditional buyers in, but zero for China. China did buy some new beans with 265,000 mt.
For the week ended Apr 9th, ethanol production was 941,000 barrels per day, down 3.5% versus a week ago, up 65.1% versus a year ago. Stocks were 20.5 mil barrels, down 0.6% versus last week, down 25.3% versus last year. Corn used was 95.1 mil bu versus 98.5 mil last week and versus the 97.2 mil needed to meet USDA projections.
The 10 day forecast in Brazil has some rain showing up next week in the South, 1-2 inches in isolated storms. Central Brazil will stay mostly dry with close to trace amounts forecast. This could be the beginning of a pattern change, with some of the first rains moving into Southern Brazil.
May corn futures touched 6 dollars in the overnight trade. Whatever happens today, is probably going to be the high for this. After the drop on Monday, the market has rallied about 40 cents in corn for the week. Beans are in the middle of their trading range that they have been holding since January. The funds continue to stay long. The bean position is on the small side with South America taking over exports and the risk of African Swine Flu holding that trade back. Corn futures are going to result in some new acres getting planted as new crop prices have rallied above 5 dollars.
Things are good for now and the markets should remain stable, but be prepared as any shift in demand and this thing will head south fast.
High Prices cure High Prices!
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 14, 2021
Good Morning,
Stronger markets this morning with old corn up 12, new crop corn up 6 and soybeans up 19.
Dry weather for the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil is driving prices higher the last two trading sessions. Brazil raises two crops of corn, the first is primarily used for domestic feed and ethanol. The Safrinha crop is mostly sold for export. The shrinking of this crop will make the World export market a tighter place for corn.
The 10 day forecast is still very dry for Central and Eastern Brazil. Second crop Brazilian corn is entering the critical stage of development and the crop needs rain now. Temps will be in the 80’s-90’s, not excessively hot. Western and Southern Brazil will see a chance of close to an inch of rain in the next week. Argentina has stayed wet during the beginning of their harvest.
The Fund position for corn could be at a new record high today. The bean position is pretty small in comparison. Markets take turns on bull runs and this one is all about corn stocks and acres. South America is able to supply the World with beans, but weather has their corn supply in question. Planting pace is really going to pick up over the next week which should put some pressure on the markets shortly.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 13, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets opened stronger this morning with corn up 14 and soybeans up 14. Concerns over Brazils weather have added strength to the markets today. Agencies in Brazil are getting concerned about the 2nd crop corn as they dropped production 3.5%.
US corn plantings are near 4 pct vs 2 last week and 3 average. Cold temps have not slowed plantings. Texas has by far made the most progress, with 57% of the state’s corn crop now planted, followed by North Carolina (16%), Tennessee (11%) and Kentucky (10%). Nine other states have measurable progress of between 1% and 8%.
The 10 day forecast for the US has very light amounts of rain for the Central growing region. Up to a quarter of an inch is projected over the next 14 days. Most of the heavy rain stays in the far South Delta where they will get up 4-5 inches. In the back end of the model you can see storms develop in Texas and head East covering Missouri and the Southern tip of Illinois. The North stays very dry in the entire 14 day model. Temps will be below normal out into April 28th.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 9, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is up 4 and soybeans are up 2 this morning.
Yesterday old corn saw some strength on reports of harvest delays in South America a stronger wheat market and algorithmic trading that sent May and July corn 18-20 higher at some points.
Yesterday saw the funds as buyers of 10,000 contracts of Wheat, 35,000 contracts of Corn and 4,000 Soybeans. They are estimated to be long 7,000 contracts of Wheat; net long 466,000 Corn; net long 175,000 Soybeans.
The USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report today at 11:00 central. (estimates below) New crop supply and demand estimates will be released in the May report.
USDA 2020/21 Ending Stocks (million bu)
| USDA | Ave. Est. | Last Year | |
| Corn | 1.352 | 1.388 | 1.919 |
| Soybeans | 119 | 118 | 525 |
| Wheat | 852 | 847 | 1028 |
While things look very bullish in the corn market right now, there are some reasons for anyone long corn to be cautious. Reports from ADM that China will not be taking all the corn that they currently have purchased and will be cancelling or rolling those purchases out to next year. There are also reports from ethanol plants across the Midwest that are looking to shutdown this summer due to corn shortages in their area and extremely high basis levels. One or both of these scenarios playing out would dramatically change the carryout numbers and send the markets in a freefall.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
