July 1, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are lower to start the month of July with corn down 5 and soybeans down 2.
We are seeing some follow through selling after Fridays WASDE report. In case you missed it the report had corn acreage at 91.475 million vs pre-report estimates of 90.353 million. We had soybean acreage at 86.1 vs estimates at 86.75 million acres. Stocks were neutral/bearish as corn stocks came in roughly 120 million bushels above estimates at 4.99 billion bushels and soybeans were basically right in line at 970 million vs estimates at 962 million. These numbers were bearish corn and neutral soybeans.
Now that the USDA has settled the acreage issue, the trade will focus on weather and try to define the yield potential. Yield is in the hands of mother nature and the weather over the next couple of months with the next few weeks being some of the most critical as we get closer to pollination. Current weather models are wetter and cooler which should be favorable.
While prices may not be where we want them, things could get worse by the time we get to harvest. I would advise producers to get some new crop sales on the books as the markets historically trend lower once we hit July. (see attached graph with the last ten years)
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 28, 2024
Good morning,
It’s report day! The USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage report will be released at 11:00am today. Early this morning corn and soybeans are slightly higher as traders’ position for the report. Check back after 11:00 for the updated numbers.
USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| June 2024 | June 2023 | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 4.993 | 4.103 | 4.873 |
| Soybeans | .969 | .796 | .962 |
| Wheat | .702 | .570 | .684 |
USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)
| June 1, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 91.475 | 90.036 | 90.353 |
| Soybeans | 86.100 | 86.510 | 86.753 |
| Wheat | 47.240 | 47.498 | 47.657 |
Producers are advised to get some old and new crop sales on the books before todays report. Unless we see a dramatic drop in corn acres, prices will struggle to move higher.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 24, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are down 7 in corn and up 35 in soybeans this morning.
With the key Stocks and Acres update on Friday, we could see some short covering later this week. I do expect a lower crop rating this afternoon, but nothing severe. The weather forecast into the July 4th weekend looks positive for the crops which will limit any market rally unless Friday’s report is bullish.
There are only a handful of sessions left to trade before the key Stocks and Acreage reports are released. Growers with too much old corn still unpriced face some difficult decisions. Be sure and get to a more comfortable position on old and new crop sales prior to the June 28th report.
USDA June 1 Stocks (billion bushels)
| USDA June 2024 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
| Corn | 4.873 | 4.103 | |
| Soybeans | .962 | .796 | |
| Wheat | .684 | .570 |
USDA 2024 June Acreage (million acres)
| USDA June 2024 | USDA March 31 | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 90.036 | 90.353 | |
| Soybeans | 86.510 | 86.753 | |
| All Wheat | 47.498 | 47.657 | |
| Winter Wheat | 34.135 | 34.197 | |
| Spring Wheat | 11.335 | 11.340 | |
| Durum | 2.028 | 1.998 |
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
May 24, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are quiet to start the day with both corn and soybeans up 1 cent.
The direction of the grain markets is starting to change slightly as planting progress figures track near average and concerns around a 2019 type situation dissipate. While the crop will get planted, we must acknowledge planting conditions have not been ideal during the last couple weeks and questionable stands are out there, especially in IA where rains have been the heaviest. I don’t think we have enough concern to warrant a yield cut from the USDA in June. We may learn new information in the coming weeks that could change that, but I wouldn’t project it today. I want to continue to reiterate the importance of taking advantage of this weather premium to make sales of both old and new crop corn.
There will be no markets on Monday as the trade honors Memorial Day.
Have a Safe Weekend!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
May 21, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are softer to open the day with corn down 3 and soybeans down 10.
Planting progress moved ahead of the rains and traders are saying it was better than expected by about 3 points. Corn planting progress advanced from 49% to an even 70% complete as of Sunday night, just below the 71% five-year average pace. Emergence of rose from 23% to 40% this week, a point ahead of average.
Soybean planting advanced from 35% to 52% complete which is ahead of the 49% 5 year average. Emergence went from 16% to 26%, ahead of the 21% 5 year average.
Rains spanned across the central/northern corn belt over the past 24 hours, heaviest from NE through IA into southern WI, and that system remains in the northern belt through today. Extended maps remain on the wet side of normal but finally start to push those heavy rains out to the southeast, with drier weather moving in from the northwest by the 11-15 day in particular. Temps remain above-normal right into early June.
There are plenty of weather problems around the world so I don’t think the set back in the markets goes much further. The maps don’t show a significant change in the weather yet, but wet weather markets are hard to get moving. We may have to get closer to the prevent plant date to see if there is a story.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
