Good Morning,

Markets are sharply lower to start the week with corn down 30 and soybeans down 50.

The markets are selling off based on a significant change n weather forecast for the coming weeks. There is heavy rain in the forecast for the Central US. Amounts of 2-3 inches are forecast for Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. One private forecast has rain starting on the 21st of June and rains every day until the end of the model run on the 27th. If this proves true, the crop will be in very good shape from these rains.
There also appears to be pressure on the markets from the potential change in biofuels policy. The refiners are balking at RIN prices as you would expect. The rollback and or potential denying of small refiner waivers granted during the Trump era is partly to blame for high rins, but also the extreme volatility of gasoline supply and demand over the last 15 months is certainly playing a role. In a recent round of discussions “senators discussed options like a nationwide general waiver exempting the refining industry from some obligations, lowering the amount of renewable fuel refiners must blend in the future, creating a price cap on compliance credits, and issuing an emergency declaration.” This is a tough spot and real test for the current administration as it tries to appease the Ag lobby and the Energy lobby all the while running on very green, environmentally friendly platform.
This is only the second day down since corn made the high last Thursday. It looks like free fall until we hit the 5.40’s. If it rains, we may slide all the way back to the previous low of 5 dollars. The weatherman is in charge of the market now and things change quickly.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is down 5, wheat is down 9 and soybeans are down 2 to open the day.

The market is trading weather this morning with Minneapolis wheat as the leader. Corn was lower yesterday after the USDA put out crop ratings that were much better than many would have guessed. There is still rain around the Midwest, so we don’t see the weather as that crazy bullish; we do respect the heat and it may be an indication of more to come.

China hailed on Thursday the resumption of “normal discussions” with the United States on the trade and economic fronts, apparently keen to move beyond a trade war as it said both sides aimed to resolve issues pragmatically.
China’s Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States, has held two video calls with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a week, marking the first formal engagement between the two sides on trade and economic issues under the Biden administration.
The EIA released updated ethanol production information today in its weekly Petroleum Inventory Status report. Total stocks were up 608 million barrels while production was up 23 million barrels. As summer approaches, fuel demand is increasing with last week’s report showing a 15% increase in daily gasoline consumption since early March 2021.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Markets are down 4 in corn and up 10 in soybeans to open the day.

Yesterday’s strong markets were driven by the funds as they added to their long positions with the start of a new month and talk that China would continue to buy and take delivery of previous purchases.

In yesterday afternoons first crop condition rating for the season, the US corn crop was rated 76%. Below are where the major corn producing states came in:
NE = 88%
IL = 80%
IA = 81%
OH = 79%
MN = 76%
IN = 74%
WI = 81%

There are several stories of producers having to re-plant frost damaged beans and corn from last weeks frost, but these areas are very limited and will have little to no impact on the markets. I toured a large portion of our draw area over the last 3 days and saw very few areas of great concern. Most of the damage I saw was corn plants with nipped leaves or areas that the plant had already begun to shoot new leaves.

The US weather forecast into June 12 has taken a lot of the rain out. Heavy rains will fall in Texas and on over to New Orleans. Amounts of up to 7-10 inches are expected. The Central and Western Midwest opens up with a high pressure ridge building a dome that pushes the precipitation to the far North and South. There are some spotty rains in the Northwest of North Dakota. One of the private forecasts that I follow has more rain in it than this model. They have a storm showing up on June 11th and moving through most of the Midwest for the next few days.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are starting the month off with a Bang! Corn is up 35 and soybeans are up 45 early this morning.
Rumors, facts, and more rumors seem to move the market day to day. Last week there was talk of China cancelling old crop purchases that pushed the markets lower. This lower trade resulted in them buying more old and new crop corn. Today the talk is that China is going to be loading out almost all the old crop corn we owe them.
This afternoon’s planting progress is expected to be 97% complete compared to 88% on average. Crop ratings are expected to be rated 70% Good/Excellent. While it is still very early, if we do see a 70% G/E, this would be a good indicator as to where the final yield will be. In 11 of the 15 years where the first crop rating was 70% or higher, the final yield was above the USDA’s May estimate. This years May estimate was 179.5 bpa.
In my opinion US weather is not bullish at this point. We have adequate rain across most of the Midwest with warming temperatures that will move the crop along. Last week’s lower temperatures/frost affected very few acres. There will be some replanting taking place in the northern states, but that is very minimal.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Markets opened lower today with corn down 5 and soybeans down 10.

Yesterdays limit higher close was just another volatile day in the markets with no solid reason for the speculative trade. We have seen limit lower and limit higher trade days this week as trade continues to make big swings on rumors and fund positioning.
A cool stretch of weather has some traders monitoring potential frost damage in the northern trade areas, but it currently looks like this will be avoided. The only real potential appears to be in the Northern ND area. The US weather is going to have to turn away from the wet outlook we have been seeing before any weather premium is going to be added.

The 7 day and 10 day forecast has a lot of rain for Missouri, Kansas and Illinois/Indiana South. Most of the heavy rain is in Kansas down into Texas where amounts will top 3-4 inches. The whole South and East are also supposed to get moderate to heavy rain. The only dry area is up in the Dakota’s and in Minnesota. Temps will back to more normal next week after this cold front moves out.
The market appears to be setting back after yesterdays big rally as we head into a three-day weekend. There will be no markets on Monday and trade will resume Tuesday morning.

Thank you to all the military service men and women who have and are currently serving our country. We would not have the freedoms we have today if not for your service.

Have a Safe Memorial Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com