Good Morning,

Markets are started out slightly higher this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 10, but have since fallen with corn trading 2 lower and soybeans only up 4.
Last week we saw a dramatic selloff in the markets with old corn losing 87 cents on the week while new crop was down 94 cents on the week. Last weeks neutral to bearish report coupled with favorable planting progress and weather had the funds exiting their long positions. The funds ended the week long 215,000 contracts after selling off 115,000.
The southern third of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop should see showers provide some drought relief by the end of this week. The rains are coming in the late pollination period which should help curb production losses.

Weather in the US remains the key negative for the markets as gulf storms allow moisture to stream north. Things are off to a very good start with the US in both planting progress and weather. This afternoon’s crop progress should show corn 85%+ planted for the majority of the corn belt.
We are a long ways from having this crop in the bin, but producers should be actively making sales for new crop at prices that are very profitable. Most would agree that this market is significantly over priced and last weeks selloff is a reminder of how quick this could be gone. I would recommend being 50% sold on new crop corn.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are continuing the slide this morning with corn down 20 and soybeans down 25.

Yesterdays WASDE report put the 2020/21 ending stocks near estimates with corn at 1.257 bln bu, soybeans at 120 mln bu and wheat at 872 mln bu. The 2021/22 ending stocks had corn at 1.507 bln bu, soybeans at 140 mln bu and wheat at 774 mln bu. The USDA cut exports in corn by 305 mln bu and soybeans by 205 mln bu for the 2021/22 year.
Yesterdays report had corn acres for 2021/22 at 91.1 mln planted acres and soybeans at 87.6 mln acres. Expectations are that the June report will show more corn and more soybean acres due to the price run we have seen in the last 30 days. The expectation for more acres and a current carryout of 1.25 are both going to put pressure on the corn market moving forward and could make it difficult for us to test last Fridays highs.
Additional bearish news could develop due to a bridge on Interstate 40 that connects Arkansas and Tennessee. This bridge spans over the Mississippi River near Memphis. This bridge was closed Tuesday after a crack was found during a routine inspection. All river traffic was also halted beginning on Tuesday as officials inspect the bridge and make plans for repairs. It wasn’t known how long the bridge or river traffic will be shut down or what will exactly be done to repair it. The could impact the market as barges of grain will not be able to flow south to the ports while this bridge is closed. This could possibly lead to the US canceling or postponing exports. More to come on this!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Mixed markets to open the day with old corn up 3 and new corn down 5. Soybeans are currently up 25. Today’s focus will be on the USDA S&D report that will be released at 11:00am. Estimates are listed below.

2020/21 US Ending Stocks (million bu)
May 12th Average Est. April
Corn 1.257 1.269 1.352
Soybeans 120 116 120
Wheat 872 844 852

2021/22 US Ending Stocks (million bu)
May 12th Average Est. April
Corn 1.507 1.360 N/A
Soybeans 140 138 N/A
Wheat 774 743 N/A

Continued dryness in Brazil plus surging vegetable oil prices have the soybean markets running higher the last few days. Add in the fact that the corn to soybean price ratio has gone from 2.63 back in March to 2.28 heading into this week. It looks like soybeans feel they have given enough ground and need to rally for acres, but is it too late?
Brazil lowered their estimate for the safrinha corn crop to 79.8 MMT from 82.6 MMT previously, but still remains above last years 75.1 MMT. They slightly raised their estimate for the first corn crop to 24.7 MMT from 24.5 MMT last month as the total corn crop is now estimated at 106.4 MMT compared to 102.6 MMT last year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are working higher this morning after yesterday’s big selloff. Corn is currently up 15 in the old crop and 6 in the new crop. Soybeans are up 26 in old crop and 17 in new crop.

Yesterday’s crop progress shoed another very active week across the heart of the corn belt with 67% of the nation planted vs. 46% last week and 52% for the five-year average. IA led the way with 86% complete with MN right behind at 85% and IL at 74%. All of these are ahead of the five-year average and significant jumps from last week. WI came in at 49% complete compared to 27% last week and 55% last year.

Reminder that the USDA will release their May S&D report at 11am tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be the first look at the 2021/22 carryout numbers. While this is usually important, I think the world numbers are going to change dramatically by that time. (September 2022) With world prices for commodities trading at the levels they have been for the last few months there will be a lot more acres planted not only in the US next year, but world-wide. I have seen some estimates of 25-50 million more acres. “High Prices cure High Prices”. Producers should be actively looking to make sales on this year and next years crop when possible. $6 fall corn for 2021 and $5.00 for fall 2022 may very well be at the top end of the range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weaker markets overnight as rainfall was a bit better than expected. Forecasts look positive in the US for the crop for now. Weather forecasts for the 7-10 day range are calling for warmer temperatures which are also going to trigger rains which will be favorable for crops. Traders are also expecting good planting progress in this afternoons report with estimates around 75% complete. Overnight corn was down 10 and soybeans were down 7.
On Wednesday the USDA will give us an updated S&D report with expectations for a slight reduction in US stocks from last months report. Estimates are for ending stocks to be around 1.275 billion bushel compared to Aprils report of 1.352 billion. Soybeans are estimated at 117 million bushel compared to 120 million in April. We will also get our first USDA estimate of the 2021/22 carryout on Wednesday. Estimates are for 1.344 billion bushel in corn and 138 million in soybeans.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com