March 24, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn markets is unchanged and soybeans are up 5 to start the day.
Crude oil is off sharply which and had some traders very nervous that we may see a selloff in other commodities.
Last Spring when Covid shut down the World economy, it all started with crude oil and US stocks. Crude oil closed terrible yesterday, and we are not sure how other markets will follow.
The Chinese stock market has also followed the path of crude oil, as it has wasted bullish traders over the last few weeks. This is another thing that had us worried yesterday, watching other markets come apart and especially this one.
US weather is going to be wet into April 3rd. Drought conditions in the central US will ease a little more each day. The Southern planting region is going to see delays with some areas getting heavy rain in the next week. The Western region up into the Dakotas still has no chances of rain in the next week.
Planted acres will be a record large combined for corn and beans in next weeks report. We could see corn acres at 96+ on the report which would set this market back significantly. Make sure you have sales on and offers in place prior to the report. $5.50 old crop corn and $4.50 new crop corn are very profitable and should be captured.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 23, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn planting across the south is accelerating with Texas now 38% complete vs. 34% on the 5 year average while Louisiana is 52% planted vs 30% on average and Mississippi is 11% complete vs. 3% average. Hopefully the early planting progress rolls into the northern states in the coming months with the warmer temperatures that we have been seeing. Private analyst IEG Vantage (formerly Informa) released their estimates for US corn plantings at 94.3 million acres compared to the USDA February Outlook expectation of 92.0 million. They estimated soybeans at 89.7 million compared to the USDA’s Feb estimate of 90.0. We will see several more estimates coming this week.
Brazilian soybean harvest has nearly caught up with 60% now complete compared to 63% on average for this week. Mato Grosso is 92% harvested compared to 94% average. The safrinha corn crop is nearing 86% planted compared to 95% on average.
Corn is unchanged and soybeans are 10 higher to start the day.
Be sure to get sales on and firm offers in place before next Wednesday’s report!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 22, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are down sharp to start the week with corn off 8 and soybeans off 7.
Favorable weather continues to be the case in South America. Fronts are bringing rain to previously parched areas of Argentina. The forecast is consistent with where we left things off on Friday. A total flip to a wet pattern in Southern Brazil and Argentina, while North and East Brazil will be very dry. Argentina saw totals last week of over 2 inches and look to get another 2-5 inches this week. A high pressure ridge has set in Brazil that is keep the rain out for the next 10 days. There are also some indications that we could see a flow of moisture return to Brazil for the safrinha corn areas which would be beneficial to the crop.
Private survey based planting intention estimates should start to come out this week and will provide info for the markets to trade. Next Wednesday 3/31 is when the USDA will release planting intentions.
I would advise producers to have 40-50% of their new crop sold prior to this report to protect against any bearish numbers. If the USDA gives us 93+ million acres of corn, this market could sell off in the new crop.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 17, 2021
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Traders are taking their pot of gold this morning as they sell off some of their longs. Corn is currently down 4, soybeans down 11 and wheat is down 5.
Despite rumors and confirmation yesterday of additional sales the markets are trading lower today.
China has bought some US corn ahead of the meeting tomorrow in Alaska, which also has had no effect on corn prices in China. There is supposed to be another sale announced to China today in corn of somewhere between 400,000 to 800,000 mt. The USDA confirmed a sale of 1.156 mt yesterday, but this sale is old news to traders as it was made weeks ago, just not announced to who it was made.
The market continues to be choppy with very little connection between old and new crop values. Recent trade has shown strength in the old crop with new crop fading. The March 31 report is going to be the next mover and while no one knows where acres will come in, I fear that it could be bearish the market. (mainly new crop) If you are a producer, make sure you have enough sales on that if the crop report comes out with 96-98 million acres you will be ok. On the flip side, end users should look to protect themselves the other way if we see anything sub 93 million acres that they are ok.
Before you dig into that corn beef and cabbage and start drinking your green beer today, give your local buyer a call and put some firm offers in place for old and new crop corn. Who knows, maybe the luck of the irish will be with you and some of them will get hit!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 16, 2021
Good Morning,
Softer markets to start the day with nearby corn unchanged and new crop corn down 5. Soybeans are 1-3 lower across the board.
Corn planting in the south is off to a good start. Planting in TX was reported at 26% complete vs. 10% last week and 26% on average. LA corn is 14% planted vs. 5% on average. Early spring weather has helped the south and expectations are that we may see the same in the Midwest.
Brazil saw another good week of soybean harvest last week that shows them 46% complete compared to 34% the previous week and 55% on average. Mato Grosso is 80% complete which is just shy of the 88% for the 5 year average. Safrinha corn planting jumped to 72% compared to 50% the previous week and 90% on average.
The funds took advantage of the expanded position limits yesterday and added 25,000 corn and 3500 soybean contracts to their positions. All of this length was added in the nearby contracts while the new crop prices fell. Funds are now long 356,000 corn and 135,000 soybeans.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
