February 23, 2021
Good Morning,
Stronger markets to open the day with corn up 6 and soybeans up 30. Soybeans are leading the way with interest in South American weather on traders minds today.
The USDA rated the Kansas winter wheat crop at 40% good to excellent down from 43% . Last year the Kansas crop was rated at 35% good to excellent. The expectations were for a larger drop this week after the bitter cold of last week.
Brazilian harvest is near 15% complete vs 31% average. Brazil’s second crop corn plantings are 15% vs 50% last year. Wet weather is going to keep the harvest pace slow, and new plantings will be late. The forecast holds the same wet weather in the North over the next 10 days with up 8 inches projected, its rain just about every other day. The forecast below has some light rain for Southern Central Brazil and trace amounts for Northern Argentina. Eastern Brazil is going to see moderate to heavy rain in the next week. The forecast is still bullish this morning following almost exactly the same pattern of the past month plus.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
February 22, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is up 5, wheat is up 9 and soybeans are unchanged to open the week.
Funds are long 344,000 corn and 154,000 beans after Fridays close. Look for the markets to have a high level of volatility in the next 28 trading days as we work towards the planting intentions on March 31st.
The forecast for Brazil is for heavy rains to continue in the North. Weekend totals were up to 2.5 inches. Northern Brazil is expected to get as much as 8 inches in the coming week. Southern Brazil and Argentina have drought conditions in the 10 day and 15 day forecast. Little to no rain is forecast for the 5th or 6th week in a row. Temps will also be on the rise in Southern Brazil and Argentina, pushing into the upper 90s. The weather forecast is bullish with too much rain in the North and poor rain totals and rising temps in the South.
South American weather is bullish and could produce a higher trade. First notice day is Thursday, so that may have as much impact as anything else. The Fund roll looks to be going out into new crop beans on the long side as well. Sunday night have rallied, followed by a more subdued trade by Monday morning. This is a trend that has been going on for the better part of a month. The market looks to be stuck in a holding pattern for now.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
February 19, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is unchanged to three higher depending on contract month while soybeans are up three to five this morning.
This weeks AG Forum did little that wasn’t expected with acres and carryout for 2021. They projected soybean acres at 90 million and corn at 92 million. Carryout was pegged at 1.552 billion bu. for corn while soybeans came in at 145 million. Production for corn came in 7% higher than 2020 based on an increase in acres and yield.
Typically this report does not influence trade as it is just a government projection with no producer surveys to back it up unlike the March 31st planting intentions.
Look for trade to continue to be volatile heading into spring planting as weather this spring could set the markets tone for the next 12 months.
Producers, Traders and speculators that are long corn and soybeans should keep in mind that these recent high prices are doing their job of quelling demand.
- Ethanol plants that have been down are not starting back
- Ethanol plants that have been running are slowing down due to economics and recent weather issues.
- Livestock producers are converting to alternative/cheaper sources.
- South America is starting harvest and begining to export soybeans and corn that will compete reduce US demand in the coming months.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
February 17, 2021
Good Morning,
Softer markets to open the day with corn and soybeans both down 3 and wheat is down 15. Concerns over the damage to wheat in the plains has raised some red flags as initial reports are the damage will be minimal which is leading to weakness in those markets today.
The US Outlook Forum is Thursday through Friday, which is probably why some banks are taking profits. March options also expire on Friday which could take another large portion out of the long position. Funds are long 374,000 corn and 160,000 soybeans heading into todays trade.
Ethanol plants across the country have been slowing production due to high corn prices and a spike in spot natural gas. Margins have gone to negative, with some the worst levels in many years.
Today is the last day to sign up for our Average Price Contract (APC). Contact Drake, Mitch or myself for more details or to sign up. This looks like a great year to utilize this contract with the volatility in the markets.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
February 16, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is up 6, soybeans up 13 and wheat up 10 this morning following the cold three-day weekend.
Frigid US weather and reflation concerns are supporting the markets this morning. With China still on holiday and the Ag Forum coming later this week, I would expect choppy trade this week. Wheat is the leader this morning as the historic winter weather has some traders concerned about potential winter kill.
Brazil weather will be mixed over the next ten days to two weeks. Southern parts of the nation will experience good drying conditions favoring soybean maturation and harvesting as well as Safrina crop planting. Argentina weather is becoming more tenuous with restricted rainfall over the next ten days to two weeks. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the coming week will be sporadic and light leaving some areas quite dry while others get enough rain to slow drying rates to buy more time for crops.
We are currently 52% priced for the February crop insurance with corn currently at $4.51 and soybeans currently at $11.66.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
