Good morning,

Markets were softer overnight with corn down 1 and soybeans down 4.

Expectations were for minimal changes to both corn and soybean carryout for 23/24 and that is essentially what we saw. The corn carryout was taken down 100 mbu thanks to a 50 mbu increase to both export and ethanol demand. The soybean balance remained unchanged as expected.

There were some adjustments to South American production. Argentina corn was lowered 2 million tons while Brazilian corn was lowered 2 million tones and soybeans 1 million tons. The market rallied sharply after the report, but it really felt like we were trading weather after the news. The largest input of the day late on Friday was the COT report. Massive fund buying was noted, and based on late week action we can probably start assuming the short fund position in our grain space is mostly liquidated. So, will they get long for a shot at a weather problem this summer? We don’t see it, but momentum is real. Once it gets rolling, it’s hard to stop.

This past week brought at least a half an inch of rain to a majority of the central and eastern corn belt with some heavier totals in northern and western IA and parts of the SE belt. We currently have some rain moving across eastern NE and through IA and that system could expand throughout the day. The next 7 days are expected to be dry for a majority of the northern belt including northern IA, but the southern and eastern corn belt is expected to receive heavier rains. The current 6-10 looks wetter than normal, especially for IA and the current 8-14 day continues to hold chances for precipitation above normal and brings in some cooler temps.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are both trading about 3 cents higher this morning as we await the USDA report at 11:00am.

Here are the estimates for today’s report:

USDA 2023/24 Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2024/25 Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (million tonnes)

The weather outlook for the next 7-10 days has shifted slightly to the drier side which should allow planting progress to remain on pace with the 5 year average. Look for Monday afternoons progress to show minimal change from the average.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are back to selling mode with corn trading 7 lower and soybeans 9 lower to start the day. The recent rally may not be over, but it is struggling to sustain momentum as planting progress rolls along and we are still in the very early stages of the season.

A national labor strike is planned across Argentina tomorrow which includes the Oilseeds Processors Union in a protest against tax hikes and the privatization of state assets.  Another crop report is due out this Friday, which may hold the market at bay until released.  The South American crop has been diminished, but so far, the USDA has accounted for almost none of it.  Traders are not betting long and may be added a few short here this morning.

In the U.S., the rains for this week have been highly advertised and expectations are that there will not be a lot of planting progress. Next week is still up in the air as there is still disagreement in the models. The CDC is calling for above normal temperatures in both forecasts, with the 6-10 day above normal rainfall the 8-14 dries out.

The Funds are still holding heavy shorts in corn and beans.  It’s unusual for them to hold short beans of over 100,000 for very long, a lot of the time they only get that short right ahead of harvest. There have hardly been any price reactions to issues in South American, Europe or India.  This recent rally is the best we’ve had in a long time, and massive amounts of cash grain moved yesterday and the day before.  Wet weather rallies are usually hard to develop and don’t have a lot of legs.

Rallies need to be rewarded by making both old and new crop sales. These rallies will not have a long tail because the US crop will get in the ground and the South American crop will get harvested. There is a gap in the December corn futures at $5.03 that I have been targeting as our top, but it may take some time to get there if we do. The last .15 cents has been tough to get, so we may or may not get there.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed to start the day with corn down 2 and soybeans up 3.

Argentina’s oilseed workers union lifted their strike Tuesday evening, and this is sending soybean meal sharply lower. Don’t discount future worker strikes as they are common in that country. The government is far from ironing out economic reforms. Brazil soybean premiums were unchanged to up 5 cents for the May/June positions, meal mostly unchanged and soybean oil higher in the spot.

Rain fell in ND, MN, and much of IA over the past 24 hours, with heavy storms in SE KS and NE OK as well; more is developing in the southern Plains today as rains move up from the southwest today and into the Midwest through the weekend. Five-day rain forecasts show plenty more widespread coverage and heavy amounts across the Plains and Midwest, heaviest center south. Extended maps remain wet as well through mid-May, with temperatures warm through at least the 6-10 day; 11–15-day maps are starting to show normal to below-normal temps creeping in from the northwestern U.S.

Monday afternoon’s planting progress showed the US at 27% completed compared to 12% last week and 22% on average. With the recent rains and more forecasted in the coming days, we may see things slow down and fall back to normal pace. I don’t expect the markets to add any premium for planting delays soon. We will have to see how progress is around May 10^th before anyone will get excited with the pace that that the crop can be put in the ground.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 2, soybeans up 4 and wheat is down 1 to start the day.

Yesterday we saw a technical rebound in the corn and beans, led by the global wheat market fundamentals. Some concerns with dryness in the southern plains and Russian attacks on ports in the Black Sea area over the weekend moved wheat higher on Monday which pulled corn and soybeans along for the ride.

After many weeks of consolidation, the wheat price in Kansas City has traded to the highest level since February.  The market is just starting to get overbought.  No sell signal in the stochastics yet, as overbought markets have been hard to find.

Corn planting progress doubled again this week to 12% complete, even with last year but ahead of the 10% five-year average pace. Soybean planting rose from 3% to 8% as of Sunday night, even with last year but double the 5 year average. Spring wheat planting advanced from 7% to 15% done this week, ahead of 4% last year and the 10% 5 year average, with emergence of that crop initially pegged at 2%, between 1% last year and the 3% 5 year average.

The rally on Friday and yesterday has been rewarded with an uptick in farmer selling. Basis levels have been firming slightly but will likely stabilize and potentially relax if we can get a little more support on the board.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com