December 9, 2020
Good Morning,
Stronger markets this morning with corn up 3 and soybeans up 10.
The Trump Administration offered a $916 billion dollar stimulus pact to potentially be settled by year end. Pelosi and Schumer said in a joint statement that it marked progress because it brought McConnell closer to the $908 billion framework unveiled last week by the group of Democrats and Republican lawmakers. But they said its omission of supplementary jobless benefits was unacceptable and backed the continuing bipartisan effort at crafting a compromise. The plan differs from the alternative that Pelosi and Schumer endorsed as a basis for fresh talks. It includes $600 stimulus payments to individuals, which could win support from both Democrats and Republicans, but it pays for that part by cutting the bipartisan proposal for $300 a week in supplemental unemployment aid.
No different than any other time there continue to be rumors of Chinese cancelations and rumors that China is looking for a whole host of ag and energy to purchase into year end. Ethanol and US meats look to be big potential purchases. Until the sales are made and the ships unloaded on their docs its all up in the air.
Tomorrow the USDA will release its December S&D report at 11am. Ending stocks for corn and soybeans are expected to drop slightly.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 8, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets opened lower again this morning with corn down 3 and soybeans down 14. Yesterday the markets recovered from the early selloff with corn posting a 4 cent gain while soybeans closed 5 lower.
USDA report Thursday. Traders do not look for any big changes to US corn, soybean or wheat 2020 balance sheets. Conab SA crop estimate is also out Thursday. Trade estimates have Brazil corn at 109 mmt vs USDA 110. Soy 132 vs 133.
Scattered showers are falling across the Northern 2/3rds of Mato Grosso. Rainfall totals are from .5-1.5 inches. These rains are much less than normal, this is a time when Mato Grosso sees triple that amount of rain. The coverage of this rain event is disappointing. There will be another chance in a couple days for another .5-2.5 inches. Southern Brazil and Argentina will remain in a dry trend all the way out till Christmas.
Look for more days of trading like yesterday leading up to Thursdays report. The market should be supported ahead of the crop report, and the continued dryness in Southern Brazil and Argentina.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 7, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets are lower to start the week with corn down 4 and soybeans down 12. Soybeans are leading the markets as of late with South American weather and projected production being the catalyst.
AgRural, a Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, on Friday cut for the third consecutive time its estimate for Brazilian production of corn in the summer, citing dry weather in the nation’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. AgRural now projects summer corn production in center-south fields to be an estimated 19.4 million tonnes for the 2020/2021 cycle, down from 20.7 million tonnes forecast last month and roughly in line with last season’s 19.7 million tonnes, when dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul farms also slashed yields and output.
Brazil’s soybean production in the 2020/2021 cycle is expected to jump to a record of 131.79 million tonnes as high prices drove farmers to increase plantings, according to the average of 13 analysts’ estimates polled by Reuters on Friday. This represents a 5.6% rise from what the government says farmers collected last season, which was an estimated 124.8 million tonnes. The poll also shows that a drought reduced expectations for an even bigger crop, as in October the average of analysts’ forecasts showed estimated output this season at 132.25 million tonnes.
Reminder that we do have a USDA report out on Thursday. Very seldom does the USDA alter this report, but corn and soybean stocks are going to be watched closely. They will not adjust yield or production, but will look at use and forward demand.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 3, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets are unchanged in corn and up 8 in soybeans to start the day.
Rumors abound for Chinese demand for corn, beans and HRW or white wheat. China is also looking to buy new crop soybeans with the dollar discount to current prices. Unfortunately there has been a lot of rumors of cancelations of late that have the markets hesitant to add premium.
On Wednesday, funds were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 12,000 Corn; and sellers of 8,000 Soybeans. Funds are net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 258,000 Corn; net long 172,000 Soybeans.
USDA export sales were 446,400 mt of wheat, 1,371,400 mt of corn, with China taking 154,000 mt, and 406,900 mt of beans. Exports were on the low end for beans and on the high end for corn. The corn sales continue to surprise, especially when you consider this was during Thanksgiving week.
Showers will fall across most of Brazil over the next ten days. It starts in the south and works its way north over the weekend. There will be chances of rain in North and Central Brazil every few days. Argentina is going to dry out over the next 10 days. La Nina looks to be a continuing trend for both Southern Brazil and Argentina.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 1, 2020
Good Morning,
After yesterday’s fund selling with month end profit taking the markets are steady this morning. Markets are neutral to start the day/month with corn unchanged and soybeans up 3. On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 13,000 contracts of Wheat; 27,000 Corn; 17,000 Soybeans. Funds are now net long 8,000 contracts of Wheat; long 257,000 Corn; net long 214,000 Soybeans.
November was a good month in the grain markets with corn closing $.23 cents higher and soybeans closing $1.12 higher. Rallies like this during harvest timeframes are rare but very welcome, especially for producers that were short on sales and space.
There is rain forecast for North and Central Brazil that starts on Sunday. The amounts are .75-2 inches, which is still below normal for this time of year. The models have been over-estimating rain totals for a month, showing heavy amounts coming in, with very little actually hitting the ground. Mato Grosso rarely sees dry weather at this time of year and usually will receive 2-3 inches a week. They may be moving back to a more normal forecast with the 10 day model run and the more into the 9th of December.
I look for the markets to trend sideways to lower during the month of December with South American weather, COVID-19 and Chinese cancelations in the drivers seat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
