Good Morning,

Markets are softer this morning after the 3 day weekend. Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 24.

Soybean prices dropped overnight, with concern over an increased out break of Covid in the Hebei province in China.  The densely populated area around Beijing is seeing the largest outbreak in 10 months.  Covid restrictions are increasing, and a larger lockdown may be coming.

The trading range is expanding, making for a much more volatile trade. Beans traded 30 lower at one point last night on the fear coming out of China.  In the last 6 or 7 trading sessions, the market has expended a tremendous amount of energy. Any new longs can’t feel very good this morning.  It’s up to the funds to defend their position today.  If the market doesn’t have the ability to bounce back tomorrow, this could lead to a deeper correction. Which is probably due.

Russia announced a $1.65 export tax on wheat exports after March 1. Russia fob wheat prices tested $300 or 8.20. This could suggest as much as 5-7 mmt of Russia export demand may have to be shifted to other origins. This could also suggest nearby Chicago wheat futures could test 7.50. Ukraine will decide on Jan 25th on whether to restrict corn exports bases on raising interior feed costs.

Dry weather has returned to Argentina, with limited rainfall in the 10 day forecast.  Southern Brazil also dries out in the same time frame, putting most of the rain into the same location in Eastern Brazil.  Flooding rains keep falling in the west, and they are forecast to get another 6-8 inches this week.  Temps will be really hot in Argentina over the next 10 days, reaching 100 degrees.  Brazil will see mostly normal temps over the next week, in the 80’s-90’s.  Argentina got some help with a few rains in the last 14 days and will need much more considering its going to be really hot.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

NO Markets today as trade observes Martin Luther King day.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

For the first day this week the markets appear to be headed lower. Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 12 to start the day. With a 3 day weekend on the horizon and funds holding a record long position we should expect some profit taking.

The US dollar has made a low over the past couple weeks awaiting whatever any new stimulus package may look like as the White House is in transition.

The weather forecast for South America is consistent with prior runs dropping some much needed rain in Argentina.  Totals were be .25-1 inch over the next 48 hours, with most of it falling to the North.  Western Brazil is going to see excessive rainfall where amounts will be up to 8 inches, causing flash flooding.  Central Brazil will see scattered showers over the weekend.  The important thing will be if Argentina has more rain in the forecast early next week.

The president of one of Brazil’s truck unions has warned in local media that upcoming strike action, scheduled for February 1, could be worse than in 2018 when national action over pay and conditions cut off essential supplies to major cities across the country.

The president of the National Association of Autonomous Transport (ANTB) Jose Roberto Stringasci was quoted in a number of Brazilian media outlets warning that the protest over rising diesel prices is gathering support and could be bigger than 2018.

With few major railways, Brazil is particularly reliant upon truck transportation to move goods around the country, with the previous truck strike quickly bringing the country to its knees.

This has lead to additional Chinese purchases of US soybeans as they have already been dealing with the delayed crop from South America due to weather.

Reminder there are no markets on Monday 1/18/21 as trade observes Martin Luther King Day.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this am with old corn up 7, new corn down 5 and soybeans down 10. Yesterdays report was a shock to most, but when you look deeper into the numbers the corn market is about 50-60 cents too high given the final stocks number.

Most were talking about the yield yesterday for the big rally, but that answer is actually the stocks report for corn.  It should have been one of the most bullish stocks reports in the first quarter, and that was proven true yesterday.  Last year the Dec 1st stocks report was 11.327, keep in mind there were 20 million acres of prevent plant acres of corn, and less than stellar yields.  The average trade estimate had this stocks report coming in at close to 12.000 billion bushels.  The actual number can in 650 million bushels below at 11.322 billion bushels.  Poor crops, prevent plant and the largest first quarter export program of all time got us to here.  There will not be a quarter going forward with this much disappearance, shipping and using the crop this fast.  Exporters will not like the price jump, and probably buy only what they need.  Ethanol is going to have a really tricky time with margins, grinding corn into summer.  This looks like another slow down scenario for ethanol like we have seen several times over the year.  Bad economics, bad weather, and demand out of China have put the US in a position of overall low grain supplies.

Bottom line = Don’t expect these prices to be sustained as demand will disappear quicker than it came.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

January 12, 2021

Good Morning,

REPORT DAY!

Corn is unchanged this morning while soybeans and wheat are up 7 and 8 respectively.

Funds are estimated to be long 327,000 corn and 172,000 soybean contracts after yesterdays close.

The USDA report will rule the markets today and volatility could be extreme. Estimates for todays report are listed below. Check back after 11am for the finals.

USDA 2020 Harvested Acres (mln acres)

USDA 2020 Yield (Bushel per acre)

USDA 2020 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2020/21 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com