Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 7 to start the day. Yesterday’s report gave the markets a good boost which producers heavily rewarded by making very good sales for nearby thru fall of 2021. With the run up in board prices over the last couple weeks and locally better than expected yields we are starting to see nearby bids pulled from end users and basis weaken a bit in the deferred months as needs get filled. I would recommend that if you are going to need to sell corn in Q1 that you make some sales to lock in a great price and assure a space to move the grain.

Yesterday the USDA estimated US 2020 corn crop near 14,507 mil bu. Total 2020/21 corn demand is estimated near 14,825. This includes exports near 2,650. Carryout is now estimated near 1,702. This suggest corn prices may need to trend slightly higher to slow demand and help increase US 2021 corn acres.  The 1,702 carryout is a 11.5% stocks to use ratio. Historically the CBOT does not trade above $4.50 unless we see the stocks to use ratio below 9%. I am not saying this couldn’t happen, but we still have a lot to work thru to get to 9% and with COVID numbers and shutdowns around the world on the rise this number could easily go the other direction. Projections for average on farm prices for 2020/21 are $4.00.

USDA estimated US 2020 soybean crop near 4,170 mil bu. Total 2020/21 US soybean demand is estimated near 4,519. This includes exports near 2,200. Bean demand and carryout of 190 million bu. were the biggest market mover in grains on Tuesday. Projections for average on farm prices for 2020/21 are $10.40.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 3 and soybeans up 6. Yesterday’s announcement by pharmaceutical company Pfizer that it had a vaccine with early data showing it to be 90% effecive3 at preventing the coronavirus is giving the market hope that we may sometime in 2021 return to more normalcy.

The U.S. Corn harvest was reported at 91% complete (trade estimate 91%) versus 82% last week and 80% average.  The U.S. Soybean harvest was reported at 92% complete (trade estimate 94%) versus 87% last week and 90% average.
USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE crop report at Noon EST today, including revisions to its domestic and global supply and demand balance sheets. The average trade guesses that are factored into the market include a 0.7-bushel drop in the corn yield to 177.7 bushels per acre and a 0.3-bushel decline in the soybean yield to 51.6 bpa. The greater focus of the trade will be on a) potential upward adjustments in USDA’s corn and soybean export forecasts, b) possible reductions South American corn and soybean production estimates due to early-season dryness and c) a potential increase in China’s corn import target after the USDA attaché in China recently raised his estimate of Chinese imports to 22 million metric tons.

USDA 2020/21 Corn and Soybean Production (billion bu)

USDA 2020/21 US grain and soybean ending stocks (billion bu)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

Good Morning,

Markets are down two in corn, up 4 in beans and down 7 in wheat. Crude oil is up 100 points and US Stocks are up 150. The dollar is slightly lower. The election is too close to call, with early returns on the ballots showing many States going the same as the last election. Many of the key States up for grabs are the same, and voter counts are close to even. This election is very tight, with much more of the popular vote yet to come in. Market volatility has not been extreme overnight.
China has not bought US soybean for 19 days. Large imported supplies to date could be slowing new buying. Late planted Brazil 2021 soybean crop could eventually add to US soybean export demand. There is even talk of US soybeans being loaded to Brazil. USDA China Ag attaché lowered his estimate of China imports to 95 mmt. Some feel if true this could hurt new crop Brazil demand.

Space has become a premium locally with the gut slot of harvest upon us. Lines, lack of space and last minute ground piles are the story this week. With the forecast for favorable weather thru the weekend things should continue to roll along at a very fast pace. Don’t let the harvest rush keep you from making some marketing decisions for post-harvest. The most important sales are the ones that keep grain moving out of your bins once harvest is complete. This will remove fines and keep grain fresh. December prices in the $3.80-3.90 range are a good place to be selling.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 2 and soybeans up 10.

Last nights’ crop report showed corn harvest at 82% complete compared to 69% for the 5 year average. Soybean harvest was 87% complete compared to 83% for the 5 year average. Wisconsin was reported at 55% complete on corn and 91% complete on soybeans. Both are significantly ahead of the 5 year average.
Brazilian farmers planted around 1 million hectares of soybeans per day during the last week to nearly catch up on sowing delays for the new grain season. Soybean planting in Brazil advanced in a week from 23% of the area to 42% by Oct. 29 as farmers worked the fields at a breakneck pace after long-delayed rains provided the necessary soil moisture for them to progress; the current planting situation is now close to the historical average of 44% by this time of the year.

Look for the grains to remain range bound with greater risk to the downside with shutdowns worldwide from Covid outbreaks. Fear that exports and global trade along with US shutdowns on the horizon may have traders pulling money from the grains.

Don’t forget to VOTE today!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

All markets are off sharply this morning with corn down 10, soybeans down 18 and wheat down 12.

Significant precipitation is still expected in West Texas and from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma and south-central Kansas into Thursday. This will significantly increase soil moisture and be beneficial for newly planted winter crops. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is cool and dry. 8-14 day is warm and dry.

The markets are generally weaker in almost all areas where the funds are long. Just about the only things higher is the US dollar and the bond market. This should be the beginning of the correction and could last a little while. It will be up to the funds defending their position and chart technicals. There really is about the first large correction the corn market has seen for a while, and its awfully long. May not be enough chairs for everyone, now that the music has stopped.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com