Good Morning,

Markets are quiet to start the day as traders prepare for this todays September 1st stocks report that will be released at 11am.

Expectations are for NASS to up 2019 soy crop by 23m bu. to 3.575B bu. Average trade estimate for 9/1/20 corn stocks at 2.250B bu is on par with the September 2019 corn stocks although range (high to low) in estimates of over 450M bu. is quite large.
Today’s USDA Grain Stocks report could potentially reflect a revision to last year’s corn crop in similar fashion to how the previous year’s soybean crop has always been reviewed in this report. In the past, USDA did not include a re-examination of the previous year’s corn crop in this report, instead doing so if/when necessary as part of the Annual Crop Production report in January, as well as in the 5-yr Census revisions.
In the past we would not expect USDA to revise last year’s corn crop in this morning’s report as it has not been part of the methodology for the September Grain Stocks report. However, NASS officials have confirmed they did, in fact, go through the same process for corn as always has been the case for soybeans for the release of the report and it will include a revision to last year’s corn crop “if necessary.” This will be part of the September Grain Stocks report permanently for corn moving forward.

USDA September 1 Grain Stocks(billion bu)
9/30/20 Ave. Est. 2019
Corn 1.995 2.250 2.221
Soybeans .523 .576 .909
Wheat 2.159 2.242 2.346

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are on the defensive this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 10 as traders wait to see if we can get any Chinese buying before they go on a week long holiday beginning Thursday. We will also have the USDA stocks report out Wednesday and the WASDE on October 9th.

Harvest should progress very quickly now and I anticipate hearing reports of steady harvest paces when the USDA releases its Crop Progress report later today. I expect to see 15%+ for corn and 15% to 20% for beans. Rain delays today and likely tomorrow had little effect on prices this morning, though increasing concerns about rising global coronavirus cases weigh on the markets.

Look for the markets to continue to trend lower with harvest pressure and rising cases of coronavirus.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are both up 2 to start the day as we look to end the first week in over a month with lower prices. The markets have had a nice rally starting in the middle of August and recently topping out last Friday. Harvest pressure and outside market concern had traders taking risk off this week in all markets.

The next two weeks will see harvest progress move along very quickly. By next Friday there will be a lot of soybeans cut, and some corn. Harvest progress on Monday should be 15 plus percent for corn and 15-20 percent for beans.

The US weather will remain mostly clear for the next two weeks There is a small storm system setting up for the 27-29th of September, but amounts will be pretty light. Temps will move to freezing levels in the Northern grain belt the middle of next week, which actually will aid harvest.

Exports were massive again this week, and the market not only failed to react positive, but sold off on the news. Most feel China has bought most of what they want for now. There has been so much corn and beans booked, I’m not sure we can even meet their needs and ship this amount on a timely basis. China is also going to be on holiday starting the first week of October, which could put some weakness into the beans market with a lack of purchases while many trades will be out.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets were softer overnight and appear to be on the defensive as a stronger dollar is taking its toll on the commodities. Concern over rising COVID cases across both the US and Europe are also weighing on prices.

Harvest continues to roll on as weather is dry where the corn is ready and is drying down fast where it isn’t. Locally we have seen producers taking off soybeans and corn in the last few days with moistures coming in very dry for this time of year. With 60’s to 70’s in the forecast for the next two weeks we expect to see harvest start to ramp up pretty quickly.

The 6-10 day forecast for the Midwest continues with dry weather for the week across the region but we could see a front come thru over the weekend and another front early next week. Rainfall amounts will be light and favor the northeast. Temps will be above average over the next 5 days.

Congratulations to producers who took advantage of yesterday’s December offer. Not only are you locking in a good price for new crop corn, but you are being proactive in coring your bins to help maintain quality in the grain you store.

Producers and traders have become very bullish the markets in the last few weeks with the recent rallies that have given life to the market but they need to be cautious and keep history in mind. Remember how quickly things changed back in March when COVID was the headline and taking over all sectors. At anytime this could flare up again and current markets could plummet to the levels we saw in April, May and June! Don’t let the opportunities to sell corn at $3.30-3.70 pass you by!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are down sharply this morning with corn off 7, soybeans off 16 and wheat off 12. The approaching harvest and weak outside markets have taken some of the wind out of the bulls sails. Rising COVID infection numbers in Europe and reports that the UK is preparing for another lockdown have soured the mood this AM.

The markets remain dependent on continued buying from China to maintain these price levels. Again this morning we have activity on the daily system with China stepping up to purchase 132 TMT of soybeans to go along with a sale to Pakistan for 132 TMT of soybeans and another sale for 171 TMT to Unknown.

Other non-Chinese demand is limited as end-users and importers appear unwilling to chase the market higher. Gulf premiums are running $1.32 over on corn and $1.36 over on soybeans. With US grain economically unattractive, all this means is that the Chinese demand will be a key driver for this week’s price action.

Harvest in the Delta is advancing with harvest in the Midwest kicking off later this week for many. Interior basis levels have begun to weaken. Chinese demand is the key going forward.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com