Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn down 7, wheat down 15 and soybeans up 4. Favorable weather forecast is weighing on corn and wheat while soybeans are trading higher on hopes of additional Chinese demand.

Both the weather and Chinese demand are expected to be the main driving forces behind this week’s trading. The trade is looking to see another 1.5+ MMT of bean sales as Beijing looks to fulfill its Phase 1 pledge. This should be about how much they will need to secure weekly if there is any hope of them holding up their end of the bargain.

Corn and wheat are both suffering from burdensome supplies and offers into the export market that just are not competitive. The US Dollar has received a little help from the EU overnight as they appear ready to unveil a new stimulus package for their economy.

Global infections of COVID-19 will top 15M this week with US cases easily surpassing the 4M mark. The global mortality rate is now 4.2% with the US sitting at 3.7%. Regional hot spots have local politicians threatening new “stay at home” orders. Florida’s COVID-19 outbreak is “totally out of control,” according to a Democratic representative, and the mayor of Los Angeles said his city is “on the brink” of new restrictions, comments that suggest the country’s months of trade-offs between the health of the community and the economy are far from over.

Look for a 1 point bump when we get a look at crop ratings this afternoon. With the weather forecasters still calling a progressive pattern that holds the possibility for daily showers/storms, this should be easily attainable. Seasonally cool temperatures are expected this week before things begin to heat up again heading into the weekend with highs in the low to mid-90’s expected. This weather pattern is setting us up for a much larger crop than the USDA has been projecting.

Time and weather are stacking up against anyone sitting on old crop corn left to sell and new crop sales that need to be made. We are only a couple weeks away from new crop corn hitting the pipelines as it will begin in the south. This is going to put more pressure on old crop prices as supplies increase. Ethanol margins have dropped dramatically over the last two weeks which could reduce plants rates as driving demand backs off.

My advice to producers is to find a home for your old crop corn and new crop corn that you are unable to store.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are steady in corn, up 1 in beans up 3 in wheat. Hopes of additional soybean sales to China are on traders minds. However, traders will have to balance any enthusiasm with the favorable weather outlook for the central US.

This morning private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 389 TMT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year and sales of 132 TMT of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year. We hope this can continue.

President Trump has signed legislation that would hold Beijing accountable for its oppressive actions in Hong Kong. The President went on to suggest that he has no interest in negotiating a Phase 2 agreement. This raised a few eyebrows and calls into question his commitment to the Phase 1 deal. Tensions are high between the two nations and traders around the world are concerned that either President Trump or Chinese President Xi could pull their support from the Phase 1 deal at any moment as political retaliation.
Weather forecasts continue to look favorable for most of the Midwest as crop progress rolls along.

Fall corn is back below $3 and may not move higher without some major news. Less than a week ago we were in the $3.20+ range and some producers got sales on. This may be the best numbers we see thru the end of the year. My advice would be for everyone to get sales on the books and firm offers in place.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are trading lower to start the week with corn down 8, beans down 9 as it appears it will be another active week with the weatherman garnering a good portion of the attention. Today’s forecast is much less threatening to yield estimates than it was last week.
Beijing has made a symbolic move against the US overnight by placing financial sanctions China announced the details of its
promised retaliation against the US for its sanctions over Xinjiang, sanctioning American officials and senators on Monday in the latest tit-for-tat confrontation in their deteriorating relations. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the behavior of US officials and politicians had severely damaged China-US relations, and should be condemned.
Less threatening weather, along with rising Chinese tensions and COVID figures will weigh on markets here today. Corn stocks at 30 year highs will continue to pressure prices.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and Beans are both relatively quiet before this morning’s report.

The USDA has a monthly report coming in this morning at 11 AM. Below are estimates.

USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

Yesterday saw a nice start to the day with corn up eight plus cents. This “run” was spurred on by a hot and dry forecast for some larger areas of the Corn Belt that are desperately needing rain. Of course this hot forecast always raises questions about a successful pollination. Along with this, China auctioned off another large volume of corn this month from their reserves, with a 100% sale rate.

A reminder that we need to look at getting firm offers in place, these are working all trade hours and can capture the spikes in the market. Congrats to those that were filled yesterday in the morning, and look to start thinking about locking in old crop at $3.25 or higher, and winter consider offers of $3.45-3.50.

Have a Great Weekend,

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are weaker to start the day with corn and beans down 1-2 and wheat down 3. Shortened trading today as the markets will close at noon. There will be no markets on Friday.

The USDA provided a ray of hope to farmers (at least temporarily) with Tuesdays report. Often these reports squash and rally, but this time they reversed course and gave farmers a marketing opportunity. The data from Tuesday suggested that PP enrollment was nearly half of what it was in 2019, so don’t be too surprised if NASS suddenly decides to put back in 1-2 million corn/bean acres on future reports in the August report and beyond. As I stated in yesterday’s comments, there are a lot of big questions in their numbers and producers should be actively selling before they get corrected.

With crops now entering their reproductive stages, the next 6 weeks are going to be all about the weather. The weather models are struggling to come up with a consensus on an outlook, but the EU model positions the high pressure ridge (HPR) further west keeping high temps not quite as warm as the GFS would indicate. Additionally the forecasts have had a difficult time predicting where the convective thunderstorms will pop up. If weather and forecasts over the weekend show rain and moderate temps come Monday, this market could begin to give back the last few day’s gains. If not we could see a little more premium as the Funds exit short positions.

Have a Happy Fourth of July!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com