Good Morning,

High-level meetings between Secretary of State Pompeo and a Chinese Communist Party Politburo Yang in Hawaii yesterday were productive. Pompeo was able to secure new assurances that China would still comply with the Phase 1 trade deal and its associated Ag purchases. Beijing promised to accelerate the purchases of US Ag goods going forward.

Rumors are that China was seeking offers on ethanol, HRW wheat, soybeans and corn following the meeting in Hawaii. While it always nice to hear that export business with China is encouraging, at this point, the demand will have little impact near-term on the longer-term oversupply issues we face.

Weather models look to be in good agreement in calling for a progressive weather pattern developing over the next 2 to 3 weeks as a series of high pressure ridge and troughs push east. Fortunately, none of the ridges look to be particularly strong and with all the moisture moving up from the Gulf will provide daily chances for showers and storms through the 4th of July holiday.

The rumors of Chinese demand are helping to support prices. I do not recommend chasing any rallies at this point due to the favorable weather outlook. Any rally should be rewarded with old and new crop sales.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are trading lower as spillover selling from the outside markets casts a shadow over the CBOT Ag complex. Corn is down 4, beans down 5 and wheat down 6 cents.

Trader are paying close attention to the price of gasoline as the US economy tries to shake off the COVID induced recession. Weekly gasoline disappearance will be of particular interest to the pros through the summer.

Traders are also interested in how the spread of the disease plays out in the other less developed countries of the world like Brazil and India. Brazil itself has seen total infections surpass the UK. Likewise in India, Doctors there continue to report that the number of new cases is continuing to steadily rise. The economic impacts of COVID will likely be felt in the world’s export markets as emerging market consumption growth is struggles over the next several months.

Crop ratings for Monday are expected to at least hold steady or gain a point in corn at 75-76%gd/ex. Bean ratings may jump a couple point to 73-74%gd/ex. Over the weekend I traveled a lot of central to southwest WI and saw some great looking crops. There are some areas where corn is a little uneven, but overall things looked great. Reports from a coworker who traveled from Kansas city to Cambria this weekend sounded about the same. The crop is off to a great start and this week’s heat along with a lot of the side dressing that is taking place will definitely make pop!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Yesterday’s crop report showed very limited changes on the balance sheet. The USDA lowered 2019 production by 46 million bushels, and took out 50 million bushels of ethanol demand, making for a net change into new crop of 5 million bushels higher.

Soybean changes were also pretty minimal on the report. The USDA raised the crush 15 million bushels to a record 2,140 million bushels. Exports were lowered by 25 million bushels for a net increase in old crop stocks of 5 million bushels at 585 mil bu. New crop stocks were very close to trade expectations at 395 million bushels, with the USDA increasing the crush by 15 million bushels.

Look for mixed trade today, and with improved chances of rain coming, I don’t the market trying to rally today or anytime soon. My guess, we chop back into the middle of the range again, and the market fails at the end of the session. There is plenty of weather ahead, but today the forecast is bearish.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 11, 2020

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 while soybeans and wheat are down 2 to ahead of today’s WASDE report that will be released at 11am central time. Estimates are listed below.

2019/20 US Carryout (billion bu.)
USDA June Ave. Est. USDA May
Corn 2.103 2.150 2.098
Soybeans .585 .577 .580
Wheat .983 .979 .978

2020/21 US Carryout (billion bu.)
USDA June Ave. Est. USDA May
Corn 3.323 3.360 3.318
Soybeans .395 .426 .405
Wheat .925 .897 .909

Check back after 11am to today’s numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn down 3 while soybeans and wheat are up 2. Yesterday’s selloff in corn and soybeans was a result of Mondays planting progress and crop conditions report that has traders preparing for large carryouts this year. This will continue to be the story if weather continues to cooperate in the growing region. The past couple days moisture maps show that the tropical storm has been dumping adequate rain with limited areas receiving excessive amounts. Extended forecasts call for 10-14 days of warmer and drier weather followed by more moderate temperatures and rain.
Traders will await tomorrows report and continue to monitor weather updates here and overseas. The expectations for tomorrows report are for slightly increased old crop corn stocks with soybeans and wheat unchanged. I do not expect any changes in the new crop ending stocks as they will wait until the July WASDE to update those numbers to incorporate the June 30th acreage numbers. I also look for the June 30th report to carry more weight and volatility than we typically see.
In a statement yesterday, Goldman Sachs stated they believe commodity prices are too high. They don’t believe current corn and crude prices are sustainable with the loss of global demand and the massive oversupply in the corn market. They forecast corn prices to drop by 7.4% (.25 cents) in the next quarter which would put futures prices at $3.00 for the July contract and $3.15 for the December contract.

Be sure to get some sales made and offers in with your buyers soon!

Have a Great Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com