Good Morning,

Markets re slightly higher this am with corn up 2 and soybeans up 2. Prices are receiving a boost from the energy complex this morning as ethanol production follows energy demand higher amid the COVID-19 pandemic’s recovery. Recent export sales to China also helped to underpin strength to soybeans. A soggy weekend weather forecast that would limit planting progress also contributed to this morning’s gains.
The Trump Administration moved to block shipments of semiconductors from chipmakers to China’s Hauwei this morning. The company depends on them for future growth meaning the White House’s move could cause problems for the Phase 1 trade pact. We await Beijing’s response.

With great planting progress and favorable weather so far this growing season the markets are not only going to struggle to move higher, but struggle to stay where they currently are. Carryout expectations of 3 billion plus that we saw in this weeks report are not going to lead to anything positive in the markets.

Make cash sales and new crop sales on any bounce in the market(1-5-10 cents) because they will be very limited.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Yesterday’s report came in pretty close to the middle of expectation. With terrible demand in the first quarter of the year, the USDA made cuts across the board. The numbers that hurt are the new crop balance sheet for corn. Ethanol is expected to bounce back in production, but not nearly enough. Feed and exports are expected to gain some demand back, and some would say the USDA’s forecast would be too large. The phase one deal was supposed to support corn, beans and wheat prices, but the Corona Virus has slowed that. The carryout in corn is really big at 3.3 billion bushels, which is the the largest since the 80’s, when the government had to start set aside programs and government storage. (Set aside programs are desperately needed now in my opinion) The bean carryout was not nearly and negative at 400 million bushels, but when you add them all up it’s going to be a continuation of a tough year.
The US House is expected to vote on a new relief bill for 3 Trillion dollars Friday. The bill is named the Heroes Act, and will still have to pass the Senate next. In the bill, 16.5 billion dollars will be marked for direct farm payments, and also send financial assistance to the Ethanol industry. The USDA will be briefing on 16 billion dollars worth of aid that would be available in June or later. The USDA would like to get the money out to farmers before the Heroes Act would pass in June, and set up another round of payments for fall.
Beans have the best chance to rally long term in my opinion. Corn could get better if crude oil would get back to the mid 30’s but an increase in prices will result in an increase in production and reset the whole thing again. China has the ability to make the US carryout in beans disappear if they buy what they say they are going to, but when has that happened?
Markets are lower today with corn down 4 and soybeans down 9. As I stated in Mondays commentary, producers should take advantage of any bounce in the market because there is little to no reason for this market to move higher and the longer you hold out the worse it could get.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are softer to unchanged this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans up 2.
Last night’s planting progress showed 67% of the nation’s corn planted which compares to 51% last week and 56% on average. Of the major corn producing states only Missouri and Ohio came in below average with most other states significantly ahead of average. Wisconsin was reported at 59% complete compared to 33% last week and 39% for the five year average.
Soybean planting progress came in at 38% complete across the nation compared to 23% last week and 23% on the average. Wisconsin was 35% complete compared to 14% last week and 14% on average.
Traders will focus on today’s USDA report that will be released at 11am. This will give us an update on the old crop S&D numbers as well as the first official estimate of the new crop (2020) S&D tables. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

2019-20 Ending Stocks (billion bu.)
USDA May estimate Average Estimate April report
Corn 2.098 2.224 2.092
Soybeans .580 .488 .480
Wheat .978 .969 .970

2020-21 Ending Stocks (billion bu.)
USDA May Estimate Average Estimate April Report
Corn 3.318 3.389 NA
Soybeans .405 .430 NA
Wheat .909 .814 NA

As you can see the estimates for the 2020-21 corn ending stocks are HUGE and could potentially become bigger given the planting progress if we have average weather this summer. I talked to a farmer in North Central IL yesterday who said they are about 60% planted in his area and most of the corn and beans could be finished by the weekend given the forecasts. He said they have had plenty of moisture lately that has delayed planting. Despite the wet weather he said they really only need 2 good rains this summer to produce a bumper crop. (1 in early June and 1 in early July) He said it may be time to start looking at the county LDP rate to see how close they get to it!

Check back after 11am for today’s report numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher to start the week with corn up 3 and soybeans up 8. Cooler weekend weather and strong export demand is supporting the grains this am. This weekend’s weather was much cooler and some sub freezing temps purchased their way through the corn belt. Thankfully the newly emerged corn was likely too immature for the cold to do any real damage. The forecast looks warmer with near to above normal temps predicted over the next couple weeks.
Look for high numbers in this afternoons planting report as traders are expecting corn to be 65-70% planted with soybeans in the 50% range.
Optimism over demand from China is supporting soybean prices this morning, but there remains concerns about the tensions between the US and Beijing.

Take advantage of today’s bounce to make sales ahead of this afternoons planting progress report and tomorrows USDA report. (Stocks, world production)

I look for the markets to fade into the close ars traders prepare for tomorrows USDA report that will be released at 11am.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn trading 2 higher and soybeans trading 6 higher.
Part of the excitement yesterday centered around trade talks between the US and China overnight. Both sides are reporting that talks were productive. The conversation reportedly focused on implementation of the Phase 1 deal. In a statement from the USTR he said “both sides agreed that good progress is being made on creating the governmental infrastructure necessary to make the agreement a success.” Rumors were circling yesterday that the Chinese were looking to secure another couple hundred thousand tons of corn and three to four hundred thousand of beans.

What may hold markets back a little here today is the weather models backing off of their forecasts for record cold that would produce a frost threat to much of the Corn Belt. The models remain cold through the weekend and into Monday, but concern for any real crop damage has waned with the forecast a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A broad ridge/trough pattern will remain in place for several days before we make a shift to a more zonal flow by the middle of next week. This should produce more season temps with highs in the 60’s. 70’s, and even a few 80’s. Overall, the forecast looks favorable for planting and we expect seeding to accelerate with the extended models looking like they will have a nice mixture of warmth, sunshine and rain.

Argentina corn harvest was reported at 38.2% harvested yesterday which is 10% ahead of the 3 year average. Soybean harvest was reported at 78.2% complete compared to 68% for the 3 year average.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com