Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 7 to start this Friday off.

In yesterday’s Supply and Demand Report, the USDA made no adjustments for corn and beans, while they increased the wheat carryout by 20 million bushels. They might as well have taken this one off as they hardly did anything anyway.

A Reuters report cited “trade sources” saying China has made large purchases of feed grains from Ukraine, France, and Australia in the past week; French wheat purchases totaled 600k mt for Jan-March, while barley purchases were estimated at 14 vessels combined from France and Ukraine. China also reportedly bought ten or more cargoes of corn from Ukraine for Jan/April, with some estimating those purchases ranging up to a million tonnes.  China has bought over 1.25 mmt of Aussie wheat in the last two weeks.

$5.50-$6 corn is going to continue to make it difficult for the US to compete in the Chinese export market. We are at a disadvantage logistically to both the Ukraine and South America on top of these current price levels. Our export business is going to be reliant on Canada and Mexico for the majority of the year. Canada is estimated to be more than 50% covered on what they need to buy so the story on this market may die quicker than we hope.

I would advise producers to get sales and firm offers on the books with end users ASAP. We are coming off the second largest harvest on record and do not expect to see the demand pop up like last year. There may be room to move slightly higher, but unlike 2021 we are starting off at $5.90-$6.00 cbot levels compared to $4 last year.

Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard