Good morning,


This mornings the markets all have their own agenda. Corn is down 4, soybeans are up 18 and wheat is down 17.


The weather in Brazil has soybeans higher overnight.  Some hot temperatures are moving in again this week, knocking some of the rain out that was forecast early this week.  The long range forecast still calls for rain and shows a significant change in Southern Brazil.  The heavy rains are supposed to let up.   Weekend totals were light with trace to an inch in only about 15% of Central and Northern Brazil.


As expected, Friday’s report was a quiet monthly report from USDA.  They did make minor upward adjustments to U.S. corn and wheat exports, they were largely immaterial in the big picture view of their respective balance sheets while USDA completely left the U.S. soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil balance sheets unchanged from last month. World revisions were also limited with only a minor downward revision to the Brazilian soybean crop, as expected, for South American estimates.


The USDA’s 2.131 billion bushel ending stocks estimate still reflects a massive 57% increase from last year’s 1.361 billion bushels, with their 14.7% stocks/usage ratio estimate easily still the highest in five years. With the expected notable rise in U.S. corn stocks this year, combined with sharply higher Ukraine stocks ideas on their reduced ability to export, USDA sees world corn ending stocks excluding China this year rising to 113.2 MMT from 94.1 MMT in 22/23 and would be a six-year high – another negative fundamental influence for the corn market.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard