Good Morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 1 to start the month.

President Trump is reinstating tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil, criticizing the cheapening of their currencies. Brazil steel accounts 3.5% of US steel consumed. The tariff would be set at 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. He also called for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy.

The Argentine weather forecast remains dry for the next 10+ days due to a high pressure ridge that has set up. Temps have been normal, this is their first real shortfall in rain this season. Weather for Brazil looks normal as ever, with rain continual over the next 10 days. Totals from the model below show 2-5 inches of accumulation coming.

Corn harvest is expected to show 90% harvest tonight, with the Northern harvest lasting well into December or spring for some areas farther north.

Producers should be talking to their buyers and bankers to get a plan in place to take advantage of the historically tight basis levels posted now thru spring. The market is telling us to sell the crop now. If you are of the opinion that the CBOT is going to rally sometime in the next 9 months look to re-own your grain on paper. March 2020 calls are cheap insurance that will keep you in the game in the event of a CBOT rally. This will also allow you to move your grain in the short term and avoid dealing with quality issues this year’s crop has.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard