Quiet markets overnight and early this morning as traders await todays USDA Crop Production/S&D report. Traders are anticipating adjustments in the US tables but nothing too bullish. They could adjust the export forecast and raise demand while holding off on a boost in ethanol usage for a later date. US corn shipped to China is still trading at a $4/mt premium to Ukraine corn which will limit any interest for US corn in Asia.
The South American weather forecast for Brazil has rains continuing over the next 6-10 days for most of the growing regions. Argentina weather forecasts call for dry weather the rest of the week, but rains return to most areas beginning next week.
Estimates for today’s report are below:
US Stocks (million bu)
February 11th Average Est. January 10th
Corn 1.892 1.856 1.892
Soybeans 425 448 475
Wheat 940 953 965
Producers should be actively monitoring and moving grain in their bins this winter due to quality issues that are going to make this crop one you DO NOT want to store very long. There are still some very good basis levels trading for corn delivery into the spring months. There is very little carry in the market which indicates that now is the time to be making cash sales. Basis sales for June and July are also advised as I expect these levels to widen out after we get this year’s crop in the ground. New crop prices are at very attractive levels ($3.70-3.85 range) for fall and beyond. If we get anywhere near the acres planted that producers are planning this spring, these levels will not remain.
Be sure to have your firm offers in with our buyers as any spike in the market or push in price will not last long.
Have a Safe Day!