Corn and Soybeans are slightly higher this morning on news out of Brazil this morning. CONAB(Brazil’s version of the USDA) estimated their corn crop at 91.652 mmt which is up from their January estimate by 460 tmt. They lowered their first crop estimate, but increased the Safrinha estimate due to better weather. While higher, this is still below the USDA’s estimate of 94.5 mmt. CONAB has reduced their soybean estimate by 3.5 mmt to 115.3 mmt due to lower yields. Currently the USDA is projecting 117 mmt for Brazil. While both corn and soybeans are lower than USDA estimates, the world carryout on corn is sitting at 309.78 million tonnes. World carryout on soybeans is sitting at 106.72 million tonnes.
Traders have reduced their long position by 50,000 contracts in corn and 6,000 contracts in soybeans in the last week. Large stocks and the uncertainty of trade with China have soybean traders sitting on the sidelines. Large stocks and the potential for even larger stocks in the coming year with an increase in acreage has corn traders doing the same.
Producers should be making sales or making plans for sales in the next few weeks. With expectations for higher corn acres in the March 31st planting intentions report this corn market could begin to drift lower. $3.50 cash, $3.65 fall are attractive prices for those with less than 50% of your crop sold. Producers should also be making sales for next February and March where prices are .30-.40 cents better than current prices.
Reminder that the markets will be closed next Monday 2/18/19 in observance of Presidents Day.
Have a Safe Day!