Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn down 1 and soybeans up 1.
Tomorrow marks 30 days since the US and China signed the Phase 1 trade agreement. The pros will be on watch for signs that China is opening their Ag markets by either issuing duty-free import licenses and by some other sort of tariff reductions.

Yesterday’s export sales report showed another poor week of movement. The USDA’s newly adjusted forecast calls for a 340 million bushel decline year over year. More talk about Asia buying Ukraine over US origin corn. Ukraine corn into Japan and Northern China is currently $4/MT cheaper than US corn. Ukraine corn into Southern China currently $19/MT cheaper. This is concerning to traders and should be to producers as well. Regardless of the “Phase One” deal, the Chinese will buy when prices are favorable and right now they are not.
We have not seen much movement in the funds positions over the last 3 weeks in corn as they maintain a net short position of 69,000 contracts. Their soybean position has not moved dramatically but has narrowed to short 57,000 contracts in the last week.

Markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard