Good morning,
Corn opened 4 lower, soybeans 3 lower and wheat 15 lower to start the day.
The USDA AG Forum data is supposed to be bearish today with higher carryout for corn, beans and wheat. For me the most interesting part of this report will be the planted acres. Private estimates are expecting about a 3-million-acre shift from corn to soybeans. This shift, if seen, would be helpful but would not change the balance sheet by a lot next year. I have run numbers using 91 million acres (down 3.6 million from 2023) yield at 172 bushels per acre (5 bushel below last 2023) and we still have a carryout of 1.9 billion bushels. This is assuming demand the same as 2023 which I think will be hard to meet.
Argentina was dry yesterday and remains so going forward, with chances holding far west into the 6–10-day period as most corn and soybean regions stays dry. Temperatures will rise next week as well. Brazilian precipitation favored southern crop areas over the past 24 hours, shifting center-north over the next ten days to aid moisture there, while southern regions remain drier.
Short term technical indicate that we could break lower and continue to create new lows. If you need to sell grain in the next 60 days, I would look to get it done soon as support has been and looks to be absent.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
