Good morning,


Markets are getting hit hard this morning with corn down 18, soybeans down 10 and wheat down 22.

Russia said on Tuesday some of its military units were returning to their bases after exercises near Ukraine and mocked repeated Western warnings about a looming invasion, but NATO said it had yet to see any sign of de-escalation on the ground.

Russia did not say how many units were being withdrawn, and how far, after a build-up of some 130,000 Russian troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine that has triggered one of the worst crises in relations with the West since the Cold War.

NATO’s chief welcomed signals from Russia in the past two days that it may be looking for a diplomatic solution but urged Moscow to demonstrate its will to act.

A USDA attaché in Brasilia estimated 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production at 134.5 MMT, actually above the USDA’s 134.0 MMT Feb figure, with exports seen at 86.8 MMT, below the 90.5 MMT Feb WASDE number.

The forecast in South America is a lot cooler this morning.  The hot air mass has lessened overnight in both of the maps, see below.  Storms moved through Northern Brazil overnight with totals of .25-2 inches.  Southern Brazil and Argentina saw no rain, and none is forecast over the 10 days.  The 11–15-day forecast is moving to wetter and shows that a pattern change in in the making for Argentina to much wetter.

There is really nothing in these markets that can be seen as strength, weakness or stability. With Funds building longs and so many unknowns being traded that are not fundamentally in the markets right now there is risk to the upside and downside. Buy on the dips and sell on the rallies is the best course of action.

Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard